Stocks Meander in Build Up to Key US Jobs Report: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — Global stocks reflected a cautious mood on Friday, steadying after recent sharp gains as traders awaited the monthly US jobs report for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps.

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Europe’s Stoxx 600 index edged lower following two days of gains that have put it on track for a seven-week rising streak. Futures contracts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were little changed, with both underlying indexes set to rise for a second week.

Stocks got a boost this week from a softening in China’s stringent Covid zero stance and signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell of a downshift in the pace of rate hikes. Bets on where the US central bank’s rate will peak have now dropped below 4.9%, according to swap markets. The current benchmark sits in a range between 3.75% and 4%.

However, many economists reckon Friday’s employment report may fall short of the turning point Fed officials are seeking in their battle to beat back inflation. The median projection in a Bloomberg survey calls for payrolls to rise 200,000 in November, cooling only slightly from the previous month.

Others point to signs that steep rate hikes will tip more economies into recession.

“Consensus is that recession is coming but equities cannot bottom before it starts, inflation won’t fall quickly so central banks can’t blink, China reopening will be a messy process, and Europe remains tricky,” Barclays Plc strategist Emmanuel Cau wrote in a note.

Recession concerns have become more pronounced after data on Thursday showed November factory activity sliding in a range of countries, with American manufacturing contracting for the first time since May 2020.

There are also signs of pressure on company earnings, with software maker Salesforce Inc. the latest to warn of slowing sales, while companies, ranging from Amazon.com to Ford Motor Co., have announced tens of thousands of job cuts. Chipmakers including Nvidia Corp., fell more than 0.5% in US premarket trading.

Bank of America Corp. strategists highlighted the labor market cooldown as one reason to prefer bonds to equities. They join others including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in pointing to equity declines early next year amid the specter of an economic recession.

“We’re selling risk rallies from here,” the BofA strategists said, warning unemployment would replace inflation as the main worry in 2023.

The ebbing rate hiking bets have pushed the dollar lower, fueling a rebound in lower-yielding G-10 currencies such as the yen and euro. The greenback slipped for the fourth straight day against a basket of currencies, while ten-year Treasury yields held just off 2-1/2-month lows.

Earlier, a gauge of Asian shares dropped for the first time in four days, led by Japan, where the yen’s five-day rally increased downward pressure on stocks.

Investors are watching for the annual early-December convention of the Chinese Communist Party’s top decision-making body, which is expected to signal a pragmatic approach toward Covid controls, while stressing the need to boost economic growth.

Elsewhere, South Africa’s rand rebounded, paring much of Thursday’s 2.6% drop. The rand has bucked this week’s upswing in emerging market currencies because of political turmoil swirling around President Cyril Ramaphosa.

Oil headed for its biggest weekly gain in almost two months, benefiting from looser Chinese curbs, calls by the Biden administration to halt sales from US strategic reserves and an OPEC producers’ group decision to cut crude supply by the most since 2020.

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