Ukraine is pushing out from Kyiv within the north, Kharkiv and Sumy within the northeast, and Mykolaiv towards Kherson within the south. Right here we’re within the northeast:
This appears to be like just like the assault into Trostyanets, south of Sumy. You understand how amateurs discuss technique, and professionals discuss logistics? Properly, time to be amateurs and discuss technique. Let’s have a look at the map:
Trostyanets is straight south of Sumy. It’s the highest arrow and circled on the map. Beneath it’s Okhtyrka, which Russia had tried to take during the last week.
So right here’s what Ukraine accomplishes by taking Trostyanets:
1) Russia is trying to totally encircle Sumy, to put siege in the identical method as Mariupol. By taking that metropolis, it protects Sumy’s southern strategy, which features a freeway to Kharkiv and a rail line. We haven’t talked about rail, however trains are probably the most environment friendly method to transfer tools and provides. With Trostyanets in Ukrainian palms, it appears to be like like provide traces are clear to each Kharkiv, and, zooming out, all the best way to Kyiv. Oh have a look at that, we talked logistics in any case!
2) The second decrease arrow is Okhtyrka, which has been closely shelled and assaulted in current weeks. Holding the city would’ve allowed Russia to consolidate its forces to Sumy’s south as they labored to encircle town. By taking Trostyanets, Ukraine put an finish to that effort. Oh hey, logistics once more! By the way, this is the place the primary lady awarded Ukraine’s Hero of Ukraine award was killed. She was a fight medic killed by Russian artillery as she handled wounded troopers.
3) Russia’s incapability to take cities has led to its murderous “indiscriminately shell civilians till they give up” technique. It hasn’t labored out militarily, however Russia doesn’t care. It’s how they’re taking out their anger and aggression on these insolent Ukrainians. Trostyanets was the house of a kind of artillery items. We noticed this drone video two weeks in the past:
In right this moment’s liberation, we see each destroyed self-propelled artillery weapons, and within the group-soldier shot, crates and crates of captured 155mm artillery rounds at that very same railway station.
This can be very harmful for Ukraine to go on the offensive, leaving ready defenses and exposing themselves to direct artillery fireplace, shut air help, mines, and Russia’s personal ready defenses. Every goal needs to be chosen fastidiously. It’s clear that Ukraine selected this one nicely, blocking the encirclement of Sumy, reconnecting rail service to Kharkiv and Kyiv, and eliminating a significant supply of artillery distress raining demise on civilians in Sumy. Now we’ll see if Russia has the juice to retake it.
The map above assumes Russian management from Trostyanets to Lebedin on to its northwest, the place it marks Lebedin as Ukrainian-held however contested. I couldn’t discover any current information about Lebedin, so I believe that tendril of Russian management has been rolled again.
Let’s head on over to Kharkiv, the place Ukraine is celebrating the liberation of Vilkhivka. It’s a small little village, has like 5 roads. However the battle was fierce.
It’s proper on Kharkiv’s japanese border, and halts Russian efforts to attach their forces round Kharkiv, with their forces on the japanese Donbas entrance. Had Russia continued to make positive aspects in japanese Kharkiv, they’d be near full management of that bypass freeway round Kharkiv, permitting for the resupply of troops besieging Izyum, and that total line of defense that stretches out to Sievierodonetsk (surrounded on three sides), by some means nonetheless holding on.
Look how lengthy and uncovered that provide tendril is from Russian-occupied Donbas, to the forces besieging Izyum. Look how a lot less complicated issues could be if they may rush provides straight from Russia, above Kharkiv. This is the reason Russia’s incapability to take these border cities of Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv are so disastrous for Russia. As a result of, sure, logistics. Strategic choices are at all times pushed by logistics, as a result of logistics are the sport.
However technique can also be fascinating.
Extra movies of the battle here and here. The battlefield is buzzing with drones, giving Ukraine’s forces intelligence into what they’re going through up the highway. Ukrainian artillery takes out uncovered Russian positions. Infantry accelerates the highway in civilian SUVs, stopping when the drones see hazard up forward, and letting armored personnel carriers filter out defensive positions within the strategy to the village. On the town, Russian defenders are holed up in some office-looking constructing, so they create up a tank to shell it. We then see infantry fanning out all through the city, partaking in door-to-door city fight. Numerous Russians surrendered.
The place was the Russian artillery, focusing on Ukrainian forces massed in broad daylight? The place was Russian close-air help? Nowhere to be seen.
Down south, the Ukrainian noose is tightening round Kherson, because the villages of Tomina Balka and Snihurivka had been liberated.
Simply 4 days in the past, Russia was attempting to push up to the southern edge of Mykolaiv, however all of that’s historical past as all of the orange and pink territory will get rolled up. The governor of Mykolaiv Oblast, Vitaliy Kim, says Russians deserted its checkpoints in Snihurivka. Given the shortage of fight video, I’m going to take a position that Russia has retreated from your complete area round Kherson to defend town.
Russia did have its successes right this moment. They finally captured Slavutych, on to Chernihiv’s west, and made positive aspects to its south. [Update: Russian troops left Slavutych after negotiations with mayor.] The town is now absolutely encircled, and is getting the Mariupol therapy. Russia has blown the bridge connecting Chernihiv to Kyiv, which impacts each provide routes, and the flexibility for refugees to flee. The scenario is dire.
Hopefully Ukraine can clear that pocket to Kyiv’s northeast, then push as much as relieve the siege of Chernihiv. It’s not clear that’s been driving Ukraine’s efforts on Kyiv’s japanese flank. The well-known Russian caravan and troops in Bucha are obnoxious, however they’re not shut sufficient to threaten Kyiv with artillery. They’re additionally contained, motionless, and digging into defensive positions. Thus, aside from opening up that freeway from Kyiv to the nation’s west, the true focus will doubtless be rescuing Chernihiv. Godspeed to that.
Extra excellent news:
Test it out:
This places critical stress on the availability traces feeding Russian troops in that pocket northeast of Kyiv. Clear that out, and Ukraine can ship troops up north to alleviate besieged Chernihiv.
These are all comparatively small strikes, however provided that Russia by no means consolidated their provide traces, all it takes is small strikes to pay massive dividends.
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Mark Sumner
Oryx, who has been visually cataloging each main navy system destroyed, broken, or captured in Ukraine, has their very own record of what weapons Ukrainian forces want to hold victory throughout the road.
“To guard Ukrainian property on the bottom and ensure Russia doesn’t attain aerial superiority, it’s in dire want of stronger air defence property. Though MANPADS (each foreign-delivered and Ukrainian) have been devastatingly efficient within the battle, longer ranged methods would permit defenders extra freedom on pleasant territory, in impact enabling simpler defence and counter assault. … Pragmatically, Ukraine would doubtless profit most from cellular medium-to-long ranged air defences with which it’s already acquainted, such because the 9K33 Osa that might be equipped by Bulgaria, Greece or Poland…”
There’s additionally a suggestion that Turkey may pair these bayraktar drones with the precision guided TRLG-230 rocket launcher. That means every drone may each unload its personal weapons, then linger to direct fireplace to many extra.
