It’s all the time difficult to sift by way of the fog of struggle to establish what’s occurring on the bottom in Ukraine, particularly so when it’s breaking information just like the Ukrainian counteroffensive, and additional so when it’s in a theater—Kherson in southern Ukraine—by which Ukraine has enforced a decent lid on data.
As such, what’s mentioned under could also be distorted and even flat out fallacious. Particulars will kind out within the coming days because the Open Supply Group aggregates its numerous sources of data to color the extra correct image. However for now, I’ll talk about what appears to be occurring, to one of the best of obtainable data.
To start with, there is a easy query: Is there really a serious offensive happening in Kherson? Illia Ponomarenko, a protection author on the Kyiv Unbiased, solid some potential doubt on the early stories.
“Tactical” means it’s simply localized actions with out broader strategic issues. We’ve seen his occur a number of instances, going all the way in which again to March—we see exercise, we expect “counteroffensive!” solely to see minimal motion on the map. Nonetheless, there may be cause to imagine that is totally different, if for no different cause than Ukraine has mentioned it’s. All the time detest to announce offensive operations, it loudly trumpeted this one.
“Right this moment we began offensive actions in numerous instructions, together with within the Kherson area,” Ukrainian public broadcaster Suspilne on August 29 cited southern command spokeswoman Natalya Humenyuk as saying. She confirmed the information minutes later at a briefing.
Something lower than a critical Kherson offensive would make Ukraine look weak. Given the remainder of the proof, we will seemingly take these proclamations at face worth.
Whereas Ukraine hates to announce liberations whereas operations are ongoing, data is leaking out of a large entrance, with Ukraine placing stress on the complete line.
Don’t fear concerning the precise location of the settlement names listed on the tweets above, it’s all rumor and supposition at this level, and none of these cities are main sufficient to be thought-about a serious breakthrough. All that’s essential is that Ukraine is transferring ahead in a number of locations, even when Russian sources claimed they already retook their misplaced floor. (I can very a lot imagine that these settlements are being actively contested by each side.)
I’ve seen rumors of progress alongside different elements of this entrance, together with the northeast tip of Russian-controlled territory, on the Dnipro river banks (prime proper on this map). Nonetheless, there’s no proof of something past what’s being mentioned on Telegram and maybe leaking from extra official sources. Keep in mind, this can be a very flat a part of Ukraine, very uncovered to artillery and aviation assaults. That’s why Ukraine has been systematically degrading Russia’s provide depots, in addition to provide routes. As soon as Russia runs out of artillery shells, the duty turns into a far totally different one than even what they’re coping with at this very second.
As is, pro-Russian Telegram sources claimed Ukrainian forces had superior 10 kilometers at numerous factors alongside the entrance, which should’ve made them very jealous given their glacial tempo on the Donbas entrance. (Once more, no actual affirmation.)
Ukrainian navy knowledgeable Oleg Zhdanov, who runs a every day YouTube replace, claims that Ukraine has damaged by way of a “first line of protection” towards Kherson, however that a minimum of two extra strains stay.
Ukrainian forces have damaged by way of the primary line of defence, the 109th regiment of the first Military Corps from the eighth discipline military left their positions along with Russian VDV who supported them. Ukrainian forces took these positions. Affirmation of that is anticipated. This was a results of Ukrainian artillery and aviation that led to Russian forces lose fight means, or it was results of an assault.
Oleg counsel to attend for official data.
In terms of additional development, it’s essential to recollect Russians have constructed 3 strains of defence in course in the direction of Kherson, though in earlier months two first have been already damaged by way of. Fast advance is just not potential, we have to keep affected person.
The 109th regiment—made up of Donbas conscripts—was routed after Russian “elite” VDV airborne troops deserted their positions. That is very “fog of struggle” kind of information and nothing I’d put cash on. However the VDV was decimated within the Battle of Kyiv, they usually’ve been sitting right here since March recuperating. Wouldn’t be stunning that they’d lack the need to proceed combating, and the Donbas cannon fodder certain isn’t motivated to die this removed from their houses.
I feel one thing is misplaced within the translation in that final paragraph, however the gist is that even when Ukraine has busted by way of the primary strains of protection, there are much more obstacles forward for them. This Ukrainian soldier talks concerning the difficulties of their first wave assault
He talks about having to cost throughout an open discipline, coated in mines, as Russian drones dropped grenades from above (together with one which concussed him), and artillery lands round them. He additionally says their comms have been missing making coordination troublesome. If you happen to can’t see the captions, absolutely broaden the video.
Presidential advisor Aleksey Arestovych has his personal tackle the counteroffensive:
The UAF began small counteroffensive within the Southern course, broke by way of the primary line of Russian defences in a number of areas and are at present attempting to progress deeper into Russian-occupied territory.
Concurrently, a number of bridges have been hit by artillery and HIMARS (Antonovskij bridge, the Antonovskij railway bridge, Dar’jvskij and Nova Kahovka bridges). Later within the night the pontoon ferries along with the Russian navy tools. One other two pontoon bridges have been destroyed or broken. All of the Dnipro Crossings are beneath Ukrainian fireplace management […]
Arestovych additionally talked about the success of Ukrainian aviation that elevated its exercise after the destruction of Russian Air-defence radars.
Attention-grabbing that he calls it a “small counteroffensive.” Expectations setting? Regardless, this lays out the Ukrainian technique we’ve been speaking about for months—lure in Russians, minimize them off, assault them, after which … actually, now we hope they determine that dying over this piece of land removed from their houses is silly.
The assault did mark a altering level within the struggle:
The shift from strategic targets (provide depots, command and management, bridges, provide strains, and many others) to tactical ones (troops within the trenches) presumably signifies that that they had run out of long-range targets, since M777s and different tube artillery may hit these emplacements simply as successfully, and cheaper. Maybe the U.S. nonetheless has previous unguided MLRS rockets to supply up, for the reason that guided ones are so costly and briefly provide.
Nonetheless, guided artillery will be very efficient in opposition to trenches, as this video, geolocated to Kherson’s airport, reveals (delicate pictures, and I’d counsel quantity off):
After darkish fell, Ukraine went again to hitting bridges linking Russian forces in Kherson oblast with their provide strains in Crimea and jap Ukraine.
Along with Nova Kakhovka, there have been stories and a few photos of Ukraine hitting the barges which have partly changed entry misplaced after Ukraine shut down the Antonovsky bridge.
I took a peek at NASA FIRMS satellite tv for pc information, which is designed to trace forest fires, however does an important job of monitoring the Ukrainian entrance strains:
That actually tracks what’s being reported, with fireplace focus at all three Ukrainian advances—west of Kherson approaching Tomyna Balka, north of Kherson round Davydiv Brid, and northeast of Kherson on the method to Kryvyi Rih.
Russia, which claims it has shot down extra Ukrainian plane than Ukraine ever had in its Air Drive, has some lofty casualty claims for the day: 560 Ukrainian troopers, 26 tanks, 23 armored combating autos, 9 troop carriers, and two plane. Okay, certain.
Data could be powerful to get for some time, as Ukraine’s Common Employees requested that “everybody go darkish on posting any data, movies, pictures, with reference to the Battle for Kherson. Operation Safety is crucial.” I think we’ll get extra data from pro-Russia telegram than from the Ukrainian aspect within the days and weeks forward.
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That is what it’s like being close to the receiving finish of a HIMARS/MLRS strike:
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kos
OMG
Russia is caught, dropping floor in a number of fronts, Sweden and Finland are becoming a member of NATO, Europe is trying elsewhere for its vitality wants, the UN retains rebuking them, they by no means achieved air superiority, and its navy is hiding from a rustic with no navy.
So yeah, certain, Russia is profitable…
