Ocellated Thrasher, Oaxaca, Mexico. Over six minutes! Many due to SV for bringing this cheerful species to our consideration. If any readers have extra ideas, particularly for songbirds, please depart them in feedback.
“However what’s authorities itself, however the best of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51
“Right here’s meals for thought, had Ahab time to suppose; however Ahab by no means thinks; he solely feels, feels, feels” –Herman Melville, Moby Dick
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated put up, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, in truth, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:
The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not solely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.
Notice, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
“Dem donor community works to construct the get together’s future bench” [Politico]. “A brand new Democratic donor community is bobbing up forward of the midterm election with a concentrate on elevating money for candidates below 50. The Subsequent 50 is a bunch of 17,000 donors that’s already raised $3 million for candidates in 2022, emphasizing help for youthful candidates who’re working in battleground races from state legislature as much as the U.S. Senate. The group’s mission is to construct up the Democratic bench — on the candidate degree, by seeding campaigns with nationwide donor money, and on the donor degree, by bringing alongside a brand new era of youthful Democrats new to political giving.” • A celebration worthy of the identify can be doing this itself, not franchising out the model (or a minimum of the poll line).
Who amongst us:
I’ve by no means encountered, even among the many most dogmatic Stalinists, such hypocrisy and mendacity which for them, having practiced it a lot, has develop into a lifestyle. They have been additionally good. So each argument that was going towards their PoV was twisted, distorted, repackaged,
— Branko Milanovic (@BrankoMilan) September 9, 2022
Mauvaise foi: “Within the philosophy of existentialism, unhealthy religion (mauvaise foi) is the psychological phenomenon whereby people act inauthentically, by yielding to the exterior pressures of society to undertake false values and disown their innate freedom as sentient human beings.[1] Dangerous religion additionally derives from the associated ideas of self-deception and ressentiment.” • Appears legit.
Republican Funhouse
Realignment and Legitimacy
#COVID19
Lambert right here: Nonetheless at our excessive plateau. One million lifeless, and no rioting. Certainly, no political response no matter. An essential takeaway for the ruling lessons, with extensive software. In fact, our personal takeaways could also be completely different.
• Heroes certainly, and heroes (versus celebrities, or idols, or “leaders,” are in brief provide:
Thanks to your very form phrases, @RAKlotsky. I feel Jim agrees that our roles are to be two cheerleaders. The true heroes are these constructing CR-boxes to assist others scale back their danger of getting contaminated. It’s a motion made from a military of good, devoted heroes!
— Richard Corsi, PhD, PE (Texas) (@CorsIAQ) September 8, 2022
A military of aerosol understanders can’t be crushed!
• I don’t suppose that in stuff on the highest is useful:
@kprather88 you’ve obtained to see this! These have been donated to a good friend’s class in San Diego faculties! #CorsiRosenthalBox 🤖 pic.twitter.com/bX0Jq7NjjV
— Wendy Wheatcroft, MEd ☮️ (@Wendy4SD) September 9, 2022
• Aerosol explainer comics:
Right here is the hyperlink to the total set of explainer comics, “The Quest of the Virosols”: https://t.co/xRMaBBauHs
Supplementary multimedia for the Evaluate: https://t.co/w9ebGw5F9P#COVIDisAirborne @ScienceMagazine @scipak @kprather88 @jljcolorado @linseymarr @zeynep @Lakdawala_Lab pic.twitter.com/xxtBYpDg1r
— Chia Wang (@ChiaWang8) September 9, 2021
• “Drug regulatory authority approves nasal Covid vaccine” [The Telegraph]. India. Final paragraph: “Scientists say essentially the most promising side of the intranasal vaccine is its potential to confer so-called sterilising immunity — to cease the virus from replicating within the physique. In distinction, present Covid-19 vaccines shield folks from extreme illness however will not be as efficient in stopping infections from mutated variations of the coronavirus. The vaccine was designed by scientists at Washington College, St Louis, in 2020. [Krishna Ella, Bharat Biotech’s managing director] had early in the course of the pandemic recognised and invested within the candidate by a pact signed by August 2020.” • Sterilizing immunity is the Holy Grail (and the destruction of Massive Pharma’s “Immunity as a Service” enterprise mannequin. What a disgrace that will be). I perceive the logic. Are research being carried out? By whom? Subsequent–
• “China and India approve nasal COVID vaccines — are they a sport changer?” [Nature]. “These mucosal vaccines goal skinny mucous membranes that line the nostril, mouth and lungs. By prompting immune responses the place SARS-CoV-2 first enters the physique, mucosal vaccines may, in idea, forestall even gentle instances of sickness and block transmission to different folks — one thing COVID-19 pictures have been unable to do. … Precisely how profitable these vaccines will probably be is unclear. Anticipating a vaccine to cease transmission of a virus or forestall even gentle sickness — reaching what is known as sterilizing immunity — is a excessive bar. Bharat and CanSino gained’t know whether or not their vaccines can obtain this till they’ve carried out additional efficacy research.” • Properly, hop to it.
• Maskstravaganza: We be taught nothing:
BREAKING: Ontario is planning to obtain 2 million CLOTH MASKS for teenagers at school if/when every thing goes south.
Similar CLOTH MASK fiasco as final yr.
We be taught NOTHING.
— Ryan Imgrund (@imgrund) September 8, 2022
Extra sabotage. “Masks don’t work.” “Yeah, should you use masks that don’t work!”
When you missed it, right here’s a put up on my queasiness with CDC numbers, particularly case rely, which I (nonetheless) contemplate most essential, regardless of what Walensky’s psychos at CDC who invented “group ranges” suppose. However these are the numbers we have now.
Case Depend
Case rely for america:
Lambert right here: The autumn in case rely appears to be like spectacular sufficient. What the Fauci Line exhibits, nevertheless, is that we have now finally achieved the extent of the preliminary peak, when New York was storing the our bodies in fridge vans. So the endzone celebrations are, to my thoughts, untimely. Not that anybody will throw a flag. In fact, the actual story is within the charts for California and the South. See beneath.
Circumstances are undercounted, one supply saying by an element of six, Gottlieb considering we solely choose up one in seven or eight.) Therefore, I take the nominal case rely and multiply it by six to approximate the actual degree of instances, and draw the DNC-blue “Biden Line” at that time. The earlier rely was ~68,700. Immediately, it’s ~65,170 and 65,170 * 6 = a Biden line at 391,020. (Bear in mind these information factors are weekly averages, so day by day fluctuations are smoothed out.) The black “Fauci Line” is a counter to triumphalism, because it compares present ranges to previous crises. When you have a look at the Fauci line, you will note that regardless of the bleating and yammering about Covid being “over,” we have now solely only recently reached the (nominal) case degree of November 1, 2021, and we’re very removed from that of July 1, 2021. And the actual degree is far worse.
Regional case rely for 4 weeks:
The South:
Lambert right here: If the Florida information weren’t so screwy, the nationwide case rely can be degree or up.
The South (minus Texas and Florida):
Doing fairly effectively!
The West:
Wastewater
SITE DOWN Wastewater information (CDC), September 1:
• “Understanding the dynamic relation between wastewater SARS-CoV-2 sign and medical metrics all through the pandemic” [Science of The Total Environment]. From the Summary: “Previous to international mass immunization campaigns and in the course of the unfold of the wildtype COVID-19 and the Alpha variant of concern (VOC), viral measurement of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater was a number one indicator for each COVID-19 incidence and illness burden in communities. Because the two-dose vaccination charges escalated in the course of the unfold of the Delta VOC in Jul. 2021 by Dec. 2021, relations weakened between wastewater sign and group COVID-19 illness incidence and maintained a powerful relationship with medical metrics indicative of illness burden (new hospital admissions, ICU admissions, and deaths).” • Hmm.
Positivity
From the Walgreen’s check positivity tracker, September 9:
-2.5%. The persevering with downward pattern contained in the purple circle is definitely encouraging.
Transmission
Here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to community transmission. (This is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you.)
That is truly nonetheless bettering. Extra yellow within the Plains states and the Mountain states.
Speedy Riser information, by county (CDC), September 9:
I suppose that if case counts are certainly degree, it’s possible there can be few fast risers.
Earlier Speedy Riser information:
Hospitalization information, by state (CDC), September 9:
First time in a very long time I’ve seen solely inexperienced. I do surprise if there’s a Labor Day impact, although; not simply on the info facet, however folks considering “I’m not gonna miss the household barbecue for slightly ol’ cough.” So let’s see if this persists.
NOTE: Speedy Riser and Hospitalization information are up to date Wednesdays and Fridays.
Variants
Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how sluggish the variant information is. I appeared for extra charts: California doesn’t to a BA.4/BA.5 breakdown. New York does but it surely, too, is on a molasses-like two-week cycle. Does no person within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and everyone will get the outcomes from them? Extra sources from readers welcome [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk].
NOT UPDATED Variant information, nationwide (Walgreens), August 27:
Nonetheless no signal of BA2.75 at Walgreens, regardless of its success in India and presence in Bay Space wastewater.
• Andy Bloch has a website that reworks Walgreens information, together with on variants:
Is a BA.2.75* COVID Omicron variant going to be menace within the US? In that case, it ought to present up within the SGTF information @walgreens updates day by day, which I exploit in my tracker right here: https://t.co/giCNpfhrl8 I made some show modifications to focus on the presumed BA.2 proportions. https://t.co/HKwOmHyKjl pic.twitter.com/ZAa5btZlmy
— Andy Bloch (@Andy_Bloch) September 9, 2022
For the lifetime of me I can’t get the map on the website to do something however throw errrors, however Bloch (and perhaps you) have higher luck. In any case, the place’s the brand new variant? The BA.2s appear very, very low. Might Biden’s eugenicist technique of “Let ‘er rip,” with the large Omicron peak, actually have constructed an “immunity wall,” together with our (comparatively low) vaccination price? Perhaps so–
• “COVID vaccines slash danger of spreading Omicron — and so does earlier an infection” [Nature]. “Individuals who develop into contaminated with the Omicron variant are much less more likely to unfold the virus to others if they’ve been vaccinated or have had a earlier SARS-CoV-2 an infection, in accordance with a examine in US prisons1. And individuals who have each had a earlier an infection and been vaccinated are even much less more likely to go on the virus, though the advantage of vaccines in decreasing infectiousness appears to wane over time. The findings are excellent news, says Megan Steain, a virologist on the College of Sydney, Australia. They present that the extra publicity folks should the virus, whether or not by vaccines, boosters or infections, the ‘greater the wall of immunity’, she says. ‘If we are able to preserve excessive ranges of booster vaccinations up, then we are able to lower how infectious persons are after they’re sick,’ says Steain.” Then once more: “Steain says the findings accord with what researchers know concerning the virus to date. However as new variants evolve, it’s doable that the best way they trigger infections may change.” • So the place are they? To date, the virus has “outsmarted” us at each flip…
NOT UPDATED Variant information, nationwide (CDC), August 13 (Nowcast off):
Nonetheless no signal of BA2.75.
Deaths
Demise price (Our World in Information):
Lambert right here: We’re seeing a drop within the loss of life rely. That means to me that a drop within the case rely is actual. (I don’t say “the” case rely, as a result of the instances we rely are a fraction of the actual quantity. It’s attention-grabbing, although, that the deaths per 100,000 curve — with its curious current flattening — has roughly the identical form because the case curve, suggesting {that a} “Biden Curve” would have roughly the identical form because the case rely curve, versus the straight line I’m drawing for the present degree.)
Complete: 1,074,787 – 1,074,171 = 616 (616 * 365 = 224,840, which is at the moment’s LivingWith™* quantity (fairly a bit greater than the minimizers would love, thought they will discuss themselves into something. Fluctuates fairly a bit, however even the low numbers are unhealthy). I’ve added an anti-triumphalist black Fauci Line.
It’s good that for deaths I’ve a easy, day by day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, in contrast to every thing else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job.
Stats Watch
Inventories: “United States Wholesale Inventories” [Trading Economics]. “Wholesale inventories within the US superior by 0.6% from a month earlier to $900.7 billion in July of 2022, barely beneath an preliminary estimate of a 0.8% rise and after a downwardly revised 1.8% enhance within the earlier month. It was the twenty fourth straight month of positive factors, albeit smaller, as shares of sturdy items rose at a softer tempo (1% vs 2.2% in June) whereas stock ranges of nondurable items ticked down (-0.1% vs 1.2%). On an annual foundation, wholesale inventories jumped 25.1% in July, additionally barely beneath an earlier studying of 25.4%.” • 25% looks as if quite lots, no?
The Bezzle: “The Case for Resisting Self-Driving Vehicles” [National Review]. “Sooner or later, the self-driving automotive will distinguish itself from mass public transit solely by the actual fact of possession.” • That is dumb. It’s the recurring fever dream of pods, which by no means work (the newest instance being Musk’s fraudulent scheme for Teslas in tunnels).
The Bezzle: “Twitter Agreed to Pay Whistleblower Roughly $7 Million in June Settlement” [Wall Street Journal]. “Twitter Inc. agreed in June to pay roughly $7 million to the whistleblower whose allegations will probably be a part of Elon Musk’s case towards the corporate, in accordance with folks aware of the matter. The settlement was accomplished days earlier than Peiter Zatko filed his whistleblower grievance in July. Mr. Zatko is the hacker who was Twitter’s safety head earlier than being fired in January. In his whistleblower grievance, Mr. Zatko accuses the corporate of failing to guard delicate person information and mendacity about its safety issues.” • Appears like Zatko was very sad, since $7 million didn’t make him go away.
Immediately’s Worry & Greed Index: 45 Impartial (earlier shut: 41 Worry) [CNN]. One week in the past: 41 (Worry). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Sep 8 at 1:28 PM EDT.
The Gallery
The Queen:
The Queen
Painted by Lucian Freud pic.twitter.com/F8wEqLbcDo— Orphee (@Orphee50883787) September 9, 2022
That is truly a reasonably gutst transferring, sitting to be be painted by Lucien Freud. I can’t think about both of the Obamas doing it. Or the Clintons.
The King:
The King Taking part in with the Queen, 1944 #ernst #maxernst https://t.co/oyRtBR0uAO pic.twitter.com/MZFufHKguC
— Max Ernst (@artisternst) September 8, 2022
The Screening Room
“William Gibson’s novel involves vivid life in first teaser for The Peripheral” [Ars Technica]. “A younger girl struggling to carry it collectively in small-town America finds herself witness to what could or might not be a homicide within the first teaser for The Peripheral, a brand new Prime Video sequence primarily based on William Gibson’s 2014 novel of the identical identify…. [One story] arc takes place in a futuristic and desolate London within the aftermath of an apocalyptic occasion dubbed “the Jackpot,” which worn out 80 % of the inhabitants.” • Let’s simply hope Amazon doens’t butcher Gibson as badly as they did Tolkien. I’m wondering how they’ll signify the (oncoming and outcomes of) the Jackpot. From the trailer, they’re messing about with Gibson’s dialog. They shouldn’t.
Our Famously Free Press
“Wine Media Is Damaged: A Case Examine” [Everyday Drinking]. “Throughout a cellphone dialog final week, the president of a serious public relations company, one with a shopper record that features wine areas, massive manufacturers, and importers, informed me that his agency pays “about $25,000 a yr” to a sure influential wine publication. This was not for promoting functions, he stated. As a substitute, this payment was “to make sure that our shoppers’ wines are reviewed” and to ensure “poorly reviewed wines aren’t listed” in critics’ tasting studies. That’s what he alleged. This “about $25,000” payment additionally permits the company and its shopper to see evaluations two days upfront of publication date, he stated. He insisted that his agency is just not the one one who pays this sort of payment to this publication.”
Zeitgeist Watch
Children consuming bugs. Isn’t that cute?
1000 Australian faculties have simply launched to their canteens snacks containing bugs. Children at the moment are munching on chips laced with “eco-friendly” cricket protein made by Circle Harvest. Only some years in the past we might suppose this was an April fools prank… pic.twitter.com/Afxfjwv38n
— Evelyn Rae (@_evelynrae) September 9, 2022
Class Warfare
“Segregation’s Sequiturs” (overview) [New Left Review]. A overview of Reed’s The South: Jim Crow and Its Afterlives. “Adolph Reed, now one thing of an elder statesman on the American mental left, has lengthy argued for an understanding of race as a distinctly trendy phenomenon, pushing again towards essentialist notions within the course of. Rejecting the concept that black folks, inside or exterior of america, shaped a single unified class, held collectively by communitarian notions of a shared tradition, he has constantly argued that black politics can’t be understood in isolation from the broader currents of American society.” • Very sadly, paywalled simply when it will get rolling.
“Ep 7: The Jim Crow South + Listener Questions” (podcast) [Class Matters]. Reed’s podcast. “In Half 1 of two, Adolph Reed Jr discusses his new guide, The South: Jim Crow and Its Afterlives, with Toure Reed. The Reeds discover how tendencies to romanticize Jim Crow undercuts our skill to deal with the basis causes of racial inequality at the moment. Additionally they deal with questions from our listeners about race and concerning the labor motion.”
I keep in mind a podcast which I can’t now discover, the place Richard Wolff patiently defined that costs rise [astonished pause]. Evidently we’re all Marxists now:
Do not forget that time, simply a few months in the past, when it was thought of unreal economics to hyperlink income to inflation? Here’s what the Fed vice chair Brainard is now saying.https://t.co/dyE3rLgIhm pic.twitter.com/Jcpj3vMvdB
— Isabella M. Weber (@IsabellaMWeber) September 9, 2022
“George Danger Industries” [Rational Reflections]. “The USA is stuffed with family-controlled companies that fly effectively beneath the radar of most traders. The apparent cause is that the majority of those corporations are very small and privately held….. Generally, should you observe a family-run enterprise that you simply wish to spend money on, you’ll should method the controlling shareholder on the native Rotary Membership. However a few of these companies are publicly traded and out there to anybody with a brokerage account and sufficient endurance to buy thinly traded inventory…. Then and now, GRI could be very thinly traded. Nonetheless, it was doable and nonetheless is feasible to place cash to work offered that an investor is prepared to sit down and watch for an execution and isn’t alarmed by the lack to rapidly promote the place. Simply as you wouldn’t soar out and in of a small non-public enterprise, you’d solely spend money on a public firm like GRI with an indefinite time horizon. You is likely to be shopping for a inventory, however what you might be actually doing goes right into a partnership with the Danger household.” • American gentry. Fascinating article for me, though maybe should you play the ponies its previous hat.
Information of the Wired
Perhaps the actual burning man is the chums we made alongside the best way:
#BurningMan created an artwork set up one can see from house. It is referred to as INSANITY and included tens of 1000’s of individuals burning 1000’s of gallons of fuel whereas spending as much as 13 hours making an attempt to exit the competition in 110 diploma warmth. pic.twitter.com/hYos8em2A9
— Dialogist (@JimBarrett) September 8, 2022
“Truck-powered vasectomy? How a health care provider improvised when electrical energy went out in Texas” [Miami Herald]. “A person who scheduled a vasectomy in Texas actually didn’t wish to should reschedule when he realized the clinic’s electrical energy was out. In spite of everything, he already had the day without work work. With slightly creativity — and an electrical pickup truck — his physician proposed an uncommon resolution: a male sterilization process powered by an electrical truck. Dr. Christopher Yang stated the thought got here from one among his staffers who jokingly recommended the physician ought to use his newly acquired Rivian R1T pickup truck for energy, in accordance with WGLT. Yang did occur to have an extension twine that ran the size from the car parking zone to the affected person’s room. “When speaking to the affected person, we talked about that we may simply reschedule the process itself, or, if he was up for it, we may do the vasectomy utilizing energy from the truck,” Yang informed WGLT. ‘And he had a great snicker as effectively, and we agreed.’” • And the remainder of us had a great snicker as we joined the Third World!
Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photographs of vegetation. Greens are tremendous! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! In order for you your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From TH:
TH writes: “It’s been within the higher 80’s right here in Southern California most of this summer season, and whereas *I* wilt in temperatures this excessive when humidity is an element, these beautiful Iris in a residential backyard close to Alamitos Bay in Lengthy Seaside seem utterly untroubled.” I’ve many favourite flowers, however iris are undoubtedly included!
