2:00PM Water Cooler 3/2/2022 | naked capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Chicken Track of the Day

Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the biggest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“They’d realized nothing, and forgotten nothing.” –Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord

“When the going will get bizarre, the bizarre flip professional.” –Hunter Thompson

Biden Adminstration

“Biden used State of the Union speech to take ‘proud to be an American’ from GOP” [Kurt Bardella, USA Today]. “Throughout President Joe Biden’s State of the Union handle, a chant led by congressional Democrats of “USA, USA, USA” broke out on the ground of the Home of Representatives. Ever since Sept. 11, 2001, the moniker of patriotism has been tied to the Republican Social gathering model. While you see an American flag hanging on a porch, you assume it’s a “Republican family.” While you see the flag flying on the again of a pickup, you assume it’s a Trump voter.’ For too lengthy, Democrats have surrendered the notion of “proud to be an American” to the Republican Social gathering, Biden took it again Tuesday night time… The truth that Biden was in a position to outflank the GOP with such precision on wheelhouse points like America first and the financial system underscores how far gone the Republican Social gathering is from its personal orthodoxy. Biden’s speech was an efficient blueprint that Democrats ought to instantly make use of heading into the 2022 midterms.”

“5 takeaways from Biden’s State of the Union speech” [NBC]. “And in an obvious enchantment to Manchin, who has known as for prioritizing debt discount, Biden stated his proposals would “not solely decrease prices and provides households a good shot; it is going to decrease the deficit.” He took intention on the Republican-led tax cuts enacted throughout the Trump administration, which Manchin has stated he needs to roll again, saying it “ballooned the deficit with tax cuts for the very rich and companies.” • Let me understand how that works out:

Joe Manchin, the West Virginia Democrat answerable for blocking Biden’s Construct Again Higher spending plan, spent all the #SOTU speech seated with Republicans on their facet of the chamber https://t.co/Dt7Xatt7Qd pic.twitter.com/3S7wygLjNS

— Reuters (@Reuters) March 2, 2022

The SOTU and Black Lives:

In his #SOTU, Biden pandered to the police state by saying he’d enhance funding somewhat than defund the police.

— Peter Daou (@peterdaou) March 2, 2022

Bear in mind when liberal Democrats turned on a dime and stated massive gatherings like marches had been OK* throughout Covid after George Floyd was murdered by cops? The exact same get together is now rising funding for the police. It is a signal of the big institutional power of the Democrat Social gathering. NOTE * Because it turned out, out of doors air, as in a march, is way, a lot safer than indoor air. However the science on that was in no way settled on the time.

Cop-loving liberal Democrats. You like to see it:

I simply stood with each member of @HouseDemocrats as @POTUS talked about offering $350 million in police funding. EVERY. SINGLE. REPUBLICAN. STAYED. SEATED. They don’t again the blue. They betray the blue. #SOTU

— Rep. Eric Swalwell (@RepSwalwell) March 2, 2022

“‘Ukraine is a rustic in Europe… Russia determined to invade a smaller nation known as Ukraine so principally that’s unsuitable’: Kamala explains Putin’s invasion in ‘layman’s phrases’ and compares sanctions to oldsters punishing children” [Daily Mail]. “[Harris] in contrast the technique of deterrence to disciplining a nasty baby. ‘So you realize when you’re a dad or mum and also you inform your youngsters to do that the punishment is gonna be that proper? And we hope that by doing that it’ll deter our kids from doing the unsuitable factor, proper? In order that’s deterrence, in order that’s the place we began with the sanctions. And when Russia truly went in we’re implementing the sanctions.’” • We’re doomed, aren’t we.

“Hunter Biden’s Ex-Accomplice Sentenced to Federal Jail for Fraud” [Jonathan Turley]. “Archer was convicted of defrauding the Wakpamni Lake Group Company of the Oglala Sioux Tribe within the dealing with of a $60 million bond providing. Hunter Biden was not implicated in these dealings…. Probably the most extraordinary exchanges present in Hunter’s textual content messages reportedly handled Archer complaining that he was arrested by Biden “appointees.” In line with press accounts, Hunter Biden responded by assuring him that he was coated and ‘household’: “Each nice household is persecuted prosecuted within the US — you’re a part of a terrific household — not a facet present not abandoned by them even in your darkest moments. That’s the best way Bidens are totally different and you’re a Biden. It’s the worth of energy.” That alternate is extremely regarding since Hunter knew that he was a possible goal of a prison investigation. He was speaking to a possible witness who might be used towards him and his household in any investigation of their alleged affect peddling and international dealings.”

Democrats en Déshabillé

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated submit, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, actually, a tough downside. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not totally) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.

Observe, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

“Most People say the coronavirus will not be but below management and help restrictions to attempt to handle it, Submit-ABC ballot finds” [WaPo]. “But practically 6 in 10 U.S. adults assume it’s extra essential to manage the virus, with some restrictions in day by day life, whereas 4 in 10 choose no restrictions.” • So let ‘er rip!

The get together of betrayal (1):

The query that must be requested is why previously 40+ yrs Roe v Wade was by no means codified, then go from there. Identical with voting rights. https://t.co/guHb9SW9H4

— AshleyStevens (@The_Acumen) March 1, 2022

Bear in mind when the Democrats managed each homes of Congress below Obama? Good instances.

The get together of betrayal (2):

Probably the most painful betrayals all through this pandemic has been fellow liberal/progressive/leftist of us signaling by way of phrases and/or actions that they’re utterly effective with leaving disabled of us within the mud as a substitute of becoming a member of us in solidarity.

— Sarah Lerner (@SarahLerner) March 1, 2022

2022

* * *

“What Went Down At Biden’s State Of The Union And Texas’s Major Election” [FiveThirtyEight]. “Progressives have had a reasonably good night time in Texas. Casar, who’s endorsed by the Dawn Motion, Indivisible, Sen. Bernie Sanders, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Our Revolution and Justice Dems, gained his open major in Texas’s thirty fifth District. In Texas’s thirtieth District, Crockett, who’s endorsed by Our Revolution, is main in that open major. And as famous all through the night time, Cisneros is main in Texas’s twenty eighth District in an in depth race towards incumbent Cuellar that may go to a runoff. And in Texas’s sixteenth, incumbent Rep. Veronica Escobar, who’s endorsed by the Progressive Change Marketing campaign Committee, beat again her lone challenger.”

2024

“Trump calls the Russian invasion ‘a holocaust,’ urges Russia to cease combating” [The Hill]. “‘Effectively, you must work out a deal. They need to cease killing these folks,’ Trump answered. ‘They’re killing all of those folks, and so they need to cease it, and so they need to cease it now. However they don’t respect the USA and the USA is like, I don’t know, they’re not doing something about it. It is a — this can be a holocaust. It is a horrible factor that’s taking place. You’re witnessing and also you’re seeing it on tv each night time.”

Republican Funhouse

“GETTR Had a Very Seen Presence at CPAC. Trump’s TRUTH Social? Not So A lot.” [Mediaite]. “Former President Donald Trump was an inescapable presence on the Conservative Political Motion Convention (CPAC), held final week on the Rosen Shingle Creek Lodge in Orlando, Florida. Nevertheless, his newly-launched social media platform, TRUTH Social, was scarcer than a Bush member of the family on the MAGA-riffic confab…. Your pleasant neighborhood Mediaite contributing editor wandered across the grounds of the Rosen Shingle Creek all 4 days of CPAC (my Apple Watch tracked all of the miles I racked up day-after-day), and located a number of illustration for GETTR however not one single brand, promotional merchandise, or occasion from TRUTH Social. GETTR was a high-level sponsor for CPAC this 12 months, with their brand proven within the third tier (the “Partnering” Sponsors) in varied signage and supplies displayed across the convention (see picture beneath). Their brand was additionally on big label overlays utilized to one of many staircases in an atrium close to the primary ballroom, as proven within the picture on the prime of this text.”

Obama Legacy

“The Obama Line, Samantha Energy, and U.S. Intervention in West Africa Through the Ebola Epidemic” [MR Online]. “Obama cited the worldwide response to the Ebola epidemic of 2014–16 as one other sterling instance of how the USA single-handedly “mobilized” the globe to fight the virus…. Former deputy nationwide safety advisor Ben Rhodes hailed this U.S.-led ‘world response’ as effectively, whereas officers who labored for Susan Rice, Obama’s nationwide safety advisor who was tapped as a possible vp for Biden in 2020, claimed they’d observe her into hell after bearing witness to her bravura efficiency below stress whereas dealing with the Ebola disaster. Peddling the Obama line proved very helpful certainly, as a weapon to assault Trump’s gross mismanagement of COVID, to counter MAGA-style antiglobalization nationalism, and to additional skilled ambitions…. But, students have demonstrated that the U.S. response to Ebola was not the roaring success Energy makes it out to be in her memoir. In reality, in accordance with public well being consultants at John Hopkins, ‘the epidemic curve started lowering earlier than most world efforts had been in place, limiting their impression on stopping the epidemic’s unfold.’ International well being specialists additionally agree that nobody exactly is aware of why Ebola petered out in late 2014, nevertheless it had little to do with U.S. involvement. There may be merely no proof to help Obama’s extraordinary declare that U.S. well being employees and troopers helped save ‘a whole lot of 1000’s, possibly a pair million lives’ in West Africa.” • So Ron Klain was “the Ebola Czar” in the identical method that King Canute was “the Ocean Czar.” No marvel he left every little thing to Zeints and Walensky. What a farce.

Realignment and Legitimacy

Nazis are solely unhealthy in the event that they’re not our Nazis:

Congress Has Eliminated a Ban on Funding Neo-Nazis From Its 12 months-Finish Spending Billhttps://t.co/HGY0r3Kp1s pic.twitter.com/N4zRgIIFZH

— Ella Septima-Hamer (@jbrous41) February 28, 2022

Even a realist admits there are occasions when morality outweighs technique; I feel supporting Nazis is one such time.

#COVID19

Case depend by United States areas:

Fellow tapewatchers will notice that “up like a rocket, down like a stick” section is completed with, and the case depend is now leveling out. A chart going again to January exhibits this clearly:

NOTE I shall most definitely not be utilizing the CDC’s new “Group Degree” metric. As a result of CDC has mixed a number one indicator (circumstances) with a lagging one (hospitalization) their new metric is a poor warning signal of a surge, and a poor strategy to assess private danger. As well as, Covid is a illness you don’t need to get. Even in case you are not hospitalized, you possibly can undergo from Lengthy Covid, vascular points, and neurological points. For these causes, case counts — recognized to be underestimated, attributable to dwelling check kits — deserve to face alone as a quantity to be tracked, irrespective of how a lot the political operatives in CDC management wish to obfuscate it.

The official narrative was “Covid is behind us,” and that the pandemic shall be “over by January” (Gottlieb), and “I do know some folks appear to not need to quit on the great pandemic, however you realize what? It’s over” (Invoice Maher) was utterly exploded. What a shock! This time, it could be totally different. However who is aware of?

MWRA (Boston-area) wastewater detection:

Flattened out, continues encouraging (and unbiased from the CDC).

The Massachusetts Water Assets Authority (MWRA) service space contains 43 municipalities in and round Boston, together with not solely a number of faculty methods however a number of massive universities. Since Boston is so very education-heavy, then, I feel it might be main indicator for Covid unfold in faculties usually.

From CDC Group Profile Experiences (PDFs), “Speedy Riser” counties:

Idaho again up once more. Vermont? Keep in mind that these are fast riser counties. A county that strikes from crimson to inexperienced will not be covid-free; the case depend simply isnt, effectively, rising quickly.)

The earlier launch:

“Well being replace: Vermont’s COVID-19 outlook improves” [Vermont Public Radio]. “COVID-19 case charges, hospitalizations and deaths are declining in Vermont, and well being officers say they count on the numbers to maintain falling. , there are nonetheless questions on easy methods to preserve older Vermonters and people with compromised immune methods secure.” • Wonderful how “the endemic section” as a result of standard knowledge with out, as far as I can inform, any scientific justification in any respect. Is it wishful considering? Is it MBAs considering their spreadsheets rule the world, as a substitute of the opposite method spherical? It’s weird. Like a lot else.

Right here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to group transmission:

Persevering with sluggish enchancment.

“Previous knowledge? CDC apparently misjudged California’s COVID dangers” [Cal Matters]. “Federal well being officers who reported that just about half of Californians reside in ‘high-risk’ counties for COVID-19 had been counting on previous knowledge, and solely a small variety of counties now fall into that class, in accordance with native officers. At stake is whether or not counties thought of excessive danger ought to preserve indoor masking necessities below new steering from the U.S. Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention or observe the state’s lead in eradicating practically all masks necessities. Kamlesh Kaur, a spokesperson for the Stanislaus County Division of Public Well being, stated the county was stunned to be designated excessive danger by the CDC. The latest COVID-19 case price for Stanislaus County is about 13 instances decrease than what the CDC reported on Friday, she stated. The CDC’s estimates look like outdated by greater than a month.” • The fax machine should have jammed.

Hospitalization (CDC Group Profile):

Sea of inexperienced as soon as extra, together with the Northern Marianas. From the perspective of our hospital-centric well being care system, inexperienced in all places means the emergency is over (and to be honest, that is strengthened by case depend and wastewater). Nevertheless, group transmission continues to be pervasive, which implies that lengthy Covid, plus persevering with vascular harm, are not over. (Observe pattern, whether or not up or down, is marked by the arrow, at prime. Admissions are introduced within the graph, on the backside. So it’s potential to have an upward pattern, however from a really low baseline.)

Loss of life price (Our World in Information):

Whole: 977,402 975,150. An uptick. However it seems to be like we gained’t break one million for Biden’s SOTU. I hoped for a ribbon reducing ceremony of some variety. Perhaps the West Wing workers may have staged a photograph op with humorous hats and noisemakers. Walensky’s workers may have joined in by Zoom. Ah effectively, however.

Covid circumstances in prime us journey locations (Statista):

Stats Watch

“United States ADP Employment Change” [Trading Economics]. “Personal companies in the USA employed 475 thousand employees in February of 2022, beating market expectations of a 388 thousand rise because the labor market restoration gathers steam. The service-providing sector added 417 thousand jobs, led by leisure & hospitality (170 thousand), commerce, transportation & utilities (98 thousand), skilled & enterprise (72 thousand), and training & well being (40 thousand). The products-producing sector added 57 thousand jobs, boosted by rises in manufacturing (30 thousand) and building (26 thousand).”

Transport: “World’s largest container traces droop delivery to Russia” [Reuters]. “The world’s three largest container traces on Tuesday quickly suspended cargo shipments to and from Russia in response to Western sanctions on Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine, in an additional blow to commerce with the nation…. Swiss-headquartered MSC, the world’s largest container delivery firm by capability, stated in a buyer advisory that as of March 1 it had launched ‘a short lived stoppage on all cargo bookings to/from Russia, masking all entry areas together with Baltics, Black Sea and Far East Russia.’ ‘MSC will proceed to simply accept and display screen bookings for supply of important items reminiscent of meals, medical tools and humanitarian items,’ it stated. Denmark’s Maersk (MAERSKb.CO), which is the second largest provider after MSC, stated individually it could quickly halt all container delivery to and from Russia, additionally including that the suspension masking all Russian ports, wouldn’t embody foodstuffs, medical and humanitarian provides.”

The Bezzle: “Defi and Shadow Banking 2.0” [Cory Doctorow, Pluralistic]. “Allen argues that defi repeats the sins of the unique shadow banking system, after which makes them worse. Defi, in spite of everything, is the most recent iteration of fintech, and as Riley Quinn is at pains to remind us, “fintech” is a euphemism for ‘unregulated financial institution.’ As with the shadow banking system, the purpose of defi is to supply conventional monetary devices exterior of the normal regulatory framework. As with the shadow banking system, defi’s devices are advanced. As with the shadow banking system, defi allows leverage, compensates for it with rigidity, and is thus weak to financial institution runs. Defi’s pitch is that you just don’t need to belief a regulated financial institution to play honest (which is compelling, as regulated banks are awfully sleazy). However defi replaces regulated banks with one thing even riskier: “new intermediaries who are sometimes unidentified and unregulated.’” • Price studying rigorously and in full. Mentions this paper–

The Bezzle: “DeFi: Shadow Banking 2.0?” (PDF) [Hilary J. Allen, William and Mary Law Review]. From the Summary: ” there’s nonetheless time to forestall DeFi from changing into Shadow Banking 2.0. This Essay argues for precautionary regulation of DeFi, designed to restrict its development and to cordon off no matter stays from the established monetary system and real-world financial system. Whereas proponents of DeFi will contend that it will restrict innovation, this Essay argues that DeFi innovation has restricted advantages for society. DeFi doesn’t aspire to supply new monetary services and products – it merely aspires to supply present monetary services and products in a decentralized method (which means, with out intermediaries). This Essay will exhibit that the DeFi ecosystem is actually stuffed with intermediaries and clarify why full disintermediation of economic providers is a completely unrealistic aspiration. This Essay will then proceed from that discovering to argue that if DeFi can’t ship on decentralization, regulators ought to really feel emboldened to clamp down on DeFi so as to shield the steadiness of our monetary system and broader financial system.”

As we speak’s Concern & Greed Index: 22 Excessive Concern (earlier shut: 18 Excessive Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 27 (Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Mar 2 at 1:38pm. Seems to be like Putin nonetheless has Mr. Market’s consideration.

Our Famously Free Press

“The Pandemic Interpreter” [Sam Adler-Bell, New York Magazine]. “What Leonhardt didn’t appear to simply accept in any of our conversations is the concept his work is an enormously consequential enter into the equation of what’s politically potential — not merely a disinterested evaluation of our political horizons. ‘He’s contributing to a actuality that’s primarily based on political small-mindedness, a form of austerity considering,’ stated Gonsalves of Yale, ‘an concept that there’s no such factor as doing higher in America. It’s actually corrosive.’ Yong, the Atlantic author, put it this manner, “I used to be writing as early as spring of 2020 that that is, in some ways, a possibility to take inventory of societal issues which have been allowed to go unaddressed for too lengthy.” The pandemic was an X-ray of the dysfunction and decay in our social order. Issues just like the baby tax credit score, common well being care, investments in faculties and hospitals, and assuaging poverty: These are all extremely efficient pandemic preparedness and mitigation insurance policies. ‘And I feel the chance has all the time been in pushing again towards that standard, we lose that probability to trend a greater regular,’ Yong stated. In any case, getting again to regular isn’t going to be enough to combat the following pandemic as a result of ‘regular led to this.’”

The Agony Column

“Coronavirus As we speak: To masks or to not masks” [Los Angeles Times]. “My colleague Deborah Netburn launched me to the idea of ‘masks fishing.’ It’s . If youngsters assume this is applicable to them — that their masks is doing them a favor by masking up their braces and zits — they’re prone to preserve carrying them. ‘Lots of our mates undergo from that,’ Netburn’s eighth-grade son informed her. She dug a bit deeper and found that the phenomenon had been documented in scientific literature. It’s not clear why our brains choose the masked model of faces; one principle is that masks trigger our brains to fill in an individual’s unseen options with noses, mouths, chins and jaws which are extra idealized than is often the case.”

None of these individuals are masked, and so they’re all smiling:

Giving credence to my principle that since smiling is a device of deception, psychos disproportionately oppose masks.

Class Warfare

Good for Canada:

“On His Approach to Theoretically Colonize Mars, Elon Musk Is Truly Colonizing South Texas” [Jacobin]. “Musk started searching for a web site to base his house journey venture in 2011, someplace close to the equator and a big physique of water. Websites in Florida and Georgia had been reported as potential choices. However in 2012, it was reported {that a} parcel of land close to Boca Chica Seashore, some twenty miles east of Brownsville on the Gulf Coast, was a number one candidate for the ability. That was sufficient for the Texas Legislature to spring into motion, passing a $15 million incentive package deal and a invoice to permit the short-term closure of state seashores throughout rocket launches to attempt to lure Musk. Cameron County kicked in a ten-year property tax abatement…. From the start, it was clear that Musk thought little of the folks and the tradition he was becoming a member of. In 2018, Musk paid tribute to Brownsville’s wealthy historical past thusly: ‘We’ve received lots of land with no one round, and so if [a rocket] blows up, it’s cool.’” • Can’t Musk take all of the squillionaires with him? That may make Brownsville’s sacrifice price it.

Once more, why simply Russian billionaires?

Information of the Wired

Extra on CDC’s “Group Ranges”:

“New Examine Disavows Marshmallow Take a look at’s Predictive Powers” [UCLA Andersen Review]. “For some 30 years, mother and father and scientists have turned to the marshmallow check to glean clues about children’ futures. The experiment gained reputation after its creator, psychologist Walter Mischel, began publishing follow-up research of the Stanford Bing Nursery College preschoolers he examined between 1967 and 1973. You may have this deal with now, he famously informed every 4 and 5-year-old, or have two once I get again to the room. The youngsters who couldn’t maintain out lengthy usually grew by way of their teenagers, 20s and 30s faster to frustrate, weaker in tutorial and social abilities, and with extra drug use, psychological well being and weight points — all that, in accordance with well-publicized research within the many years since…. However the newest Bing follow-up research, by a workforce of researchers that included Mischel, casts doubt {that a} preschooler’s response to a marshmallow check can predict something in any respect about her future. Following the Bing youngsters into their 40s, the brand new research finds that youngsters who shortly gave in to the marshmallow temptation are usually no roughly financially safe, educated or bodily wholesome than their extra affected person friends. The period of time the kid waited to eat the deal with didn’t forecast roughly a dozen grownup outcomes the researchers examined, together with internet price, social standing, excessive interest-rate debt, weight loss plan and train habits, smoking, procrastination tendencies and preventative dental care, in accordance with the research printed within the Journal of Financial Conduct and Group. ‘With the marshmallow ready instances, we discovered no statistically significant relationships with any of the outcomes that we studied,’ UCLA Anderson’s Daniel Benjamin, who brings experience to the research that features behavioral economics and statistical methodology, says in an interview.” • Hmm.

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