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Why the Rolex rally is on pause in 2025

by Gracy Chen
June 22, 2025
in Cryptocurrency
Reading Time: 4 mins read
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Nemo

The next is a visitor publish and opinion from Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget.

There was a time not too way back when the heart beat of the crypto market could possibly be measured not solely by candlestick charts however by the waitlists at luxurious watch boutiques. Throughout the 2020–2022 bull cycle, the correlation between Bitcoin and high-end collectibles — particularly metal sports activities watches from manufacturers like Rolex and Patek Philippe — was so robust, it virtually grew to become a meme of its personal. When Bitcoin hit $69,000, the Nautilus 5711 traded for over $240,000 on secondary markets. WatchCharts and Bitcoin value curves appeared eerily comparable, simply with a lag.

At the moment, crypto wealth creation was speedy, exuberant, and visual. Merchants had been turning six-figure beneficial properties into grails, “Lambo” desires had been fueling Twitter threads, and retail participation was at an all-time excessive. It was the golden age of the flex economic system — the place wealth was on-chain and standing was worn on the wrist.

However as we stand in mid-2025, Bitcoin has hit one other all-time excessive, and the story is remarkably totally different.

Graph – BTC & Watch Index value development from WactchChart, CoinGecko

Regardless of BTC’s climb, costs for luxurious watches and different items haven’t adopted. Platforms like WatchCharts present that the posh watch index has remained largely flat since late 2023. Automotive luxurious shares, tracked by indices like CLTBAUTOS, are exhibiting stagnation or minor pullbacks. Even equities extra broadly, affected by charge uncertainty and macro headwinds, usually are not maintaining with Bitcoin’s current development charge.

Whether or not it’s resulting from growing geopolitical uncertainty, inflationary pressures, or the sluggish normalization of digital property in world portfolios, we’re witnessing what I name the “nice decoupling” — Bitcoin pulling away from luxurious property and speculative equities, and drawing nearer to the behavioral patterns of conventional hedges.

So, what modified?

1. A Shift in Capital Profile

The gamers in crypto as we speak usually are not the identical as in 2021. The institutional inflow we’re seeing — led by the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in main jurisdictions just like the U.S. and Hong Kong — is reshaping the investor base. These members usually are not flipping JPEGs or scalping meme cash; they’re allocating capital from pension funds, household places of work, and stability sheets.

We will additionally see proof of this in crypto exchanges’ consumer habits. Some alternate merchandise, staking instruments, and structured methods are seeing elevated capital allocation from these sources.. These are devices designed not for speedy hypothesis, however for portfolio optimization. And the questions we get from customers have shifted — it’s much less about “What’s the subsequent moonshot?” and extra about “How do I diversify throughout CeFi and DeFi with risk-managed publicity?”

2. Market Maturity and the Finish of the Flex Commerce

Bitcoin’s new position is now not as a get-rich-quick ticket, however as a strategic asset with shortage and safety at its core. And when capital matures, so does its expression. As a substitute of Rolexes and Richard Milles, as we speak’s crypto beneficial properties are more and more going into multi-sig wallets, validator nodes, or ETF shares.

This isn’t to say luxurious items have misplaced their luster — they continue to be potent cultural and symbolic indicators. However the speculative froth has been wrung out. Watch sellers are now not chasing crypto whales; they’re recalibrating to a special clientele. The speculative hangover from 2022 remains to be within the system, and as we speak’s patrons are cautious. On this sense, Bitcoin is shifting otherwise not simply in value — however in goal.

3. Macro Local weather and Liquidity Constraints

One other issue behind this decoupling is macroeconomic situations. Central banks are nonetheless navigating charge coverage and inflation stays sticky. Liquidity is treasured. On this local weather, discretionary purchases — together with high-end timepieces — take a backseat. In the meantime, traders are more and more drawn to property that function long-term shops of worth.

Bitcoin has earned its seat at that desk.

Centralized exchanges should evolve in tandem. Centralized exchanges are now not solely buying and selling platforms; they turn out to be launchpads for long-term technique. Meaning higher compliance, stronger custody infrastructure, and deeper integration with on-chain ecosystems like TON and others. Investments in these ecosystems are targeted on driving mass adoption not by hype, however by utility.

4. Gold and Bitcoin: A New Alignment

The narrative of “digital gold” has been round for years, however now we’re seeing it within the knowledge. The S&P/TSX World Gold Index has moved extra carefully with BTC than ever earlier than. When equities wobble, gold rallies — and currently, Bitcoin has began to behave equally. This can be a sign that crypto’s correlation matrix is altering. Bitcoin is beginning to act not like a tech inventory, however like a hedge.

It’s now not only a risk-on wager; it’s more and more seen as a resilient allocation. This has vital implications for wealth managers, portfolio constructors, and sure — centralized exchanges.. As this new alignment takes form, we should be ready to supply the merchandise and infrastructure that help it: from derivatives with tighter spreads to institutional custody options and staking mechanisms with actual safety.

The Coming Period of Accountable Development

There’s a saying in markets: “When the narrative modifications, the habits follows.” What we’re seeing as we speak is that this narrative transformation towards a brand new period of accountable development.. The decoupling of Bitcoin from luxurious items is one other sign that crypto capital is rising up — and so should the business’s buying and selling and funding platforms.

As an business, we should be dedicated to persevering with to help strategic investments, foster mass adoption by sensible integrations, and empower customers to see digital property not simply as a short-term, speculative play — however as a long-term, viable asset class.

The “Rolex and Lambo” celebration could also be over, however the way forward for finance is simply starting!

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