The Philippines goes to the polls on Might 9 to decide on a brand new president, in what analysts say would be the most important election within the Southeast Asian nation’s latest historical past.
Outgoing President Rodrigo Duterte leaves workplace with a status for brutality – his signature “drug battle” has left hundreds useless and is being investigated by the Worldwide Legal Court docket (ICC) – financial incompetence, and cracking down on the media and his critics.
Duterte has additionally been criticised for his dealing with of the coronavirus pandemic, which has killed at the very least 60,439 folks within the archipelago.
There are 10 folks battling to interchange him, however solely two stand an opportunity of profitable.
The primary is frontrunner Ferdinand Marcos Jr, popularly often known as “Bongbong” and the namesake of his father, who dominated the Philippines as a dictator till he was pressured from workplace and into exile in a well-liked rebellion in 1986.
The second is Leni Robredo, the present vice chairman and head of the opposition, who has promised extra accountable and clear authorities and to reinvigorate the nation’s democracy.
“This election can be a good versus evil marketing campaign,” College of the Philippines Diliman political scientist Aries Arugay instructed Al Jazeera. “It’s fairly clear. Duterte represents dynasty, autocracy and impunity. Robredo stands for the alternative of that: integrity, accountability and democracy.”
What occurs on election day?
Some 67.5 million Filipinos aged 18 and over are eligible to forged their vote, together with about 1.7 million from the huge Filipino diaspora who’ve registered abroad.
Polling stations will open at 6am (22:00 GMT) and shut at 7pm (11:00 GMT). The hours have been prolonged due to the coronavirus pandemic and the necessity to keep away from queues and crowds.
As soon as the polls shut, counting will get below means instantly, and the candidate with probably the most votes wins. There is no such thing as a second spherical so the title of the brand new president could possibly be identified inside a couple of hours. The inauguration takes place in June.
In addition to the presidential race, Filipinos are selecting a brand new vice chairman – the place is elected individually to the president – members of congress, governors and hundreds of native politicians together with mayors and councillors.
Politics is usually a harmful enterprise within the Philippines and there may be the chance of violence throughout each campaigning and the election itself.
In one of the vital horrific incidents, dozens of individuals had been killed and buried by the roadside in 2009 by a rival political clan in what turned often known as the Maguindanao bloodbath.
Who’s within the working for president?
Opinion polls recommend Marcos Jr stays within the lead though Robredo seems to be closing the hole.
The 64-year-old dictator’s son attended the personal Price College in England and studied at Oxford College – Marcos Jr’s official biography says he “graduated” however the college says he emerged with a “particular diploma” in social research.
He entered politics within the household stronghold of Ilocos Norte in 1980, and was governor of the province when his father was pressured out of energy and democracy restored.
In 1992, he was elected to congress – once more for Ilocos Norte. Three years later, he was discovered responsible of tax evasion, a conviction that has dogged him ever since however doesn’t appear to have hindered his political profession.
Marcos Jr was elected a senator in 2010, and ran unsuccessfully for the vice presidency six years later when he was pipped to the put up by a resurgent Robredo.
On the marketing campaign path, Marcos Jr has talked of “unity” however has supplied little element on his insurance policies and has prevented media interviews and debates.
His working mate is Sara Duterte-Carpio, Duterte’s daughter, who took over as mayor of Davao Metropolis from her father and is main the sphere for vice chairman.
Robredo is the present vice chairman and a human rights lawyer who acquired into politics in 2013 after her husband – a authorities minister – was killed in a aircraft crash.
She threw her hat into the ring at a comparatively late stage, and has relied on a community of pink-clad volunteers to win over voters throughout the archipelago.
Hundreds have turned out for her rallies, a few of then standing for hours of their sizzling solar ready to listen to the presidential hopeful communicate. Robredo, whose working mate is Senator Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan, is working on a platform of excellent governance, democracy and an finish to corruption.
Different candidates embrace champion boxer Manny Pacquiao, Manila mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso, and a former police chief Panfilo Lacson.
Why would a Marcos victory be controversial?
Ferdinand Marcos turned president of the Philippines in 1965, profitable over Filipinos along with his charisma and rhetoric, and taking management of a rustic that appeared on the time to be one in every of Southeast Asia’s rising powerhouses.
Backed by the USA, Marcos gained a second time period in workplace in 1969, however three years later he declared martial regulation claiming the transfer was essential to “save” the nation from communists.
For the following 14 years, he dominated the nation as a dictator.
Greater than 3,200 folks had been killed – their our bodies usually dumped by the highway facet as a warning to others – and much more tortured or arbitrarily jailed, in line with the US tutorial and historian, Alfred McCoy.
Marcos’s largest rival, Benigno Aquino, was assassinated as he acquired off a aircraft at Manila airport.
The killing shocked Filipinos at a time after they had been more and more indignant on the corruption and extravagance of the Marcos regime. At the same time as many lived in poverty, the Marcos household purchased properties in New York and California, work by artists together with impressionist grasp Monet, luxurious jewelry and designer garments.
Transparency Worldwide estimated in 2004 that the couple embezzled as a lot as $10bn throughout their years in energy, and Imelda, Marcos’s spouse, has turn into a byword for extra.
However for the reason that former dictator’s demise in Hawaii in 1989, the Marcos household have sought to rehabilitate themselves, making an attempt to painting the dictatorship as some sort of golden age.
In 2016, Duterte allowed Ferdinand Marcos to be buried in Manila’s heroes cemetery, full with a 21-gun salute.
Now the Duterte household is allied with the Marcos one, and their bid additionally has the assist of different politically influential dynasties in a rustic the place blood ties are extra vital than any political social gathering.
“The meteoric resurgence of the Marcoses is itself a stinging judgement on the profound failures of the nation’s democratic establishments,” tutorial Richard Javad Heydarian wrote in a column for Al Jazeera in December. “A long time of judicial impunity, historic whitewashing, corruption-infested politics and exclusionary financial development has pushed a rising variety of Filipinos into the Marcoses’ embrace.”
Many fear the election of Marcos Jr, significantly if Duterte turns into vice chairman as extensively anticipated, may herald a brand new period of repression.
“The 2 are the offspring of two strongman rulers,” Arugay stated. “Can we count on restraint and inclusive authorities? You don’t must be a political scientist to reply that query.”
Earlier this week, some 1,200 members of the clergy of the Catholic Church endorsed Robredo and Pangilinan describing them as “good shepherds”. At the very least 86 % of Filipinos are Catholic.
“We can not merely shrug, and let the destiny of our nation be dictated by false and deceptive claims that intention to alter our historical past,” they stated.
Will the consequence be accepted?
When Marcos Jr misplaced the vice presidential race by 263,000 votes in 2016, he challenged the lead to court docket.
With the stakes a lot greater this time round, some analysts fear he may achieve this once more if Robredo manages to tug off a victory.
The position of social media
Filipinos are avid customers of social media and the platforms have performed a key – and divisive – position within the election, intensifying the extra poisonous parts of political campaigning.
Marcos Jr and his workforce have been accused of utilizing – and abusing – on-line platforms.
In January, Twitter suspended greater than 300 accounts selling his marketing campaign, which it stated breached guidelines on spam and manipulation.
Joshua Kurtantzick of the Council on International Relations says Marcos Jr has additionally benefited from “the legacy of Duterte, who fostered the unfold of disinformation and made it simpler for an additional strongman to win”.
Senatorial race
Whereas all eyes are on the presidential race, it’s price keeping track of the senate, too.
Leila de Lima, who has spent the previous 5 years imprisoned within the nationwide police headquarters in Manila after questioning Duterte’s drug battle, is campaigning for workplace once more.
The opposition senator is hopeful she could quickly be launched after two key witnesses withdrew their testimony.
De Lima was the goal of vicious, misogynistic assaults by Duterte and his supporters earlier than she was charged in 2017 with taking cash from drug lords whereas she was justice secretary within the authorities of the late Benigno Aquino III.
De Lima has denied the costs and Human Rights Watch has stated the case is politically motivated.
