Authentic OSINT reviews recommended the 2 most important explosions had been doubtless at two munitions depots at appreciable distance from one another:
Russia itself appeared to confirm the explosions had been a “munitions detonation,” and it is arduous to consider a lot else that might end in explosions of the size captured on movies taken from seashores across the base:
Sure, properly, thank goodness the “vacationers” are actually deciding that their plans to go to occupied territory throughout a taking pictures battle had been maybe ill-advised. However the space closely broken, it shortly grew to become clear, was appreciable. A “radius of a number of kilometers,” a minimum of.
On the finish of that final video, there’s what seems to be a metal structural column puncturing a automotive. Notice that it did not fall on the automotive, it flew sideways, puncturing either side of the automotive whereas leaving the roof unscathed. No matter constructing that metal beam was once part of is not simply gone, it ejected thousands-of-pounds-sized shrapnel in all instructions.
Yeah, we’re gonna presume that was a munitions depot that was hit.
What’s clear from the movies is that the harm to the airfield as an entire is … appreciable. Not essentially to the runways, which is able to doubtless require little greater than some sweeping to get the, uh, thousand-pound chunks of particles cleared to the facet, however the remainder of the airfield’s infrastructure. This is not going to be a straightforward restoration.
As for the extraordinarily invaluable Russian planes stationed on the base, harm to them appeared an excessive amount of to hope for. However yet one more obvious failure of Russia to abide by even essentially the most fundamental of operational safety measures resulted in an on-the-scene video of simply that:
In that temporary few-seconds pan, you may see not solely a very destroyed Su-24, however apparently broken buildings within the distance on the left, fireplace crews hosing down the wreckage within the heart, tons of particles on the concrete, and employees attending to a pile of blackened one thing on the appropriate. So we all know {that a} Su-24 suffered catastrophic harm, the char marks and, uh, lack of wings recommend a substantial fireplace, and that every part within the rapid environment seems to be equally broken.
Properly, there’s just one kind of factor recognized to have been parked close to that Su-24 at Novofedorivka on that day by way of satellite tv for pc photographs, and that is these different Russian warplanes.
Ukraine is now claiming a minimum of 9 Russian planes had been destroyed yesterday, and that appears believable. A munitions depot (or two?) might have been the prioritized Ukrainian goal, however Ukraine hit the jackpot in collateral harm. This one airfield hit is a real disaster for Russian air energy in Crimea.
If Ukraine actually is planning a serious southern offensive aimed toward chopping off and eliminating a lot of the Russian floor troops between them and Crimea, this one assault went a great distance in quickly limiting Russia’s skill to manage the skies.
Coupled with the now-known use of HARM anti-radar missiles by Ukrainian forces it hammers residence the sickening reality for Russian battle planners. They do not have air superiority right here, they’ve by no means had it, they usually’re getting farther from it by the day. There’s doubtless going to be one other spherical of Russian army firings, as a result of Russia goes to want a entire lot extra scapegoats accountable for this one.
Claims of at least 60 dead and 100 injured within the explosions now appear fairly believable. Truthfully given the harm from the shock wave alone, it is perhaps low.
Now then, as for a way Ukraine did it: We do not know, however we all know a bit extra about how they did not. The chances that this was an HIMARS-based assault now appear slim. The USA is not acknowledging sending the forms of missiles able to such long-range strikes, and there is widespread skepticism that Ukraine would ship even one of many vital HIMARS autos shut sufficient to the entrance line to get in vary. We will not essentially take U.S. denials at face worth, however the sum of what we all know backs up U.S. insistence that this wasn’t that.
The Russian declare is identical one they’ve used after each munitions depot detonation in Crimea, captured Ukrainian territory, or on the Russian border: Our drunken chain-smoking troops are simply so incompetent that they have been setting depots on fireplace regularly. We carry our bombs with rigs assembled from leftover balloon string and transfer them from truck to constructing by way of wood catapult. Burp.
Truthfully, if that is the case then we’re nonetheless gong at hand this one to Ukraine, as a result of going through an enemy that blows its personal army bases up with clockwork frequency ought to depend as a tactical victory for anyone. However the scope of the harm carried out right here makes the Russian declare doubtful at finest, and Russia’s insistence on utilizing the identical excuse for each explosion, whether or not on land or sea, means the presumption should at all times be that they are mendacity. They’re nearly definitely mendacity.
It’s theoretically attainable that some fully incompetent Russian began a hearth inside one of the vital munition depots in Crimea, that the hearth set off each bomb within the constructing, that the particles from that explosion soared to this point that it hit a second munitions depot a great distance away, that the ensuing spark or shock blew up that depot as properly, and the dual explosions wrecked every part within the common neighborhood of both of them. Positive. And it is also attainable a Crimean canine received into the constructing and licked one of many bombs till it went off.
The 2 almost definitely explanations, then: Ukrainian air strike? Or Ukrainian saboteurs?
The Washington Publish cites an nameless Ukrainian official to credit score the assault to “Ukrainian particular forces.” That is … really fairly attainable. Ukrainian resistance fighters have waged a sturdy marketing campaign in and round Kherson, with profitable executions of Russian-allied leaders and a relentless barrage of publicly positioned posters trying to mock and unnerve Russian forces. It is affordable to consider that Ukrainian particular forces had been capable of in some way spirit themselves into occupied Crimea, made their method to Novofedorivka, and received themselves into the Russian base undetected.
However that is additionally a declare that Ukraine would completely wish to be making proper now. There’s nothing Ukraine would really like greater than to ship Russian commanders into absolute matches with ideas that even the crown jewel of Russia’s marketing campaign of conquest, occupied Crimea, is swarming with Ukrainian particular forces. Ukraine could be sending nameless folks out to say that it doesn’t matter what the reality is. The fog of battle is a software, not only a consequence.
The air strike situation has additionally been hinted at by these within the know, just like the U.S. official who instructed the Publish the airbase strike was carried out utilizing, says the Publish, “a weapon not offered by america.”
That is a broad assertion, however Ukraine has a number of weapons not offered by america. The one drawback is getting them shut sufficient.
May one of many Russian army bases most vital to their battle effort have been quickly taken out of operation as a result of all the Russian army wasn’t capable of detect or cease one in every of these flying leisurely overhead?
God solely is aware of at this level. However from what we have seen from Ukrainian successes in taking out a sure Russian ship and numerous Russian commanders, Russian air defenses might certainly include some man scanning the skies with a recycled cardboard tube held to his eye.
The thought that particular forces may have smuggled in a Ukrainian drone with more-than-trivial firepower, getting it shut sufficient to strike the bottom and performing shortly sufficient that Russian air defenses could not reply, continues to be extra affordable than the Russian declare that their very own troops created a multikilometer zone of particles via rank stupidity—once more.
Now, as for the Russian responses? Oooof. Buckle in.
Peruse that one at your leisure, however the quick model is that every part is okay, it was however a minor mishap, and all glory to the hypnotoad. Or no matter.
Oh—however what different proof would possibly we have now that this Crimean explosion is perhaps an specific Ukrainian motion to set the stage for additional operations in Ukraine’s still-occupied south?
Hmm.