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US China Tech Race – The Cipher Brief

by Ethan Masucol
October 28, 2025
in World
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OPINION — Precision U.S. airstrikes in opposition to Iran’s nuclear program final June display American technological prowess constructed on many years of twentieth Century Chilly Conflict Period funding and innovation. In the present day, the U.S. continues to originate new expertise, but it finds itself in a race with rivals similar to China and Russia to dominate AI, quantum computing, robotics, semiconductors, cyber, and different frontier applied sciences poised to outline world management within the twenty first Century.

To prevail and prosper on this new geopolitical wrestle, the U.S. should construct and keep networks of buyers, prospects, and collaborators amongst allies with widespread values and pursuits. By forging such networks, the U.S. can speed up the expertise innovation and implementation velocity essential to outpacing its rivals and their formidable manufacturing capability, human expertise base, and monetary assets.

Alternatives (and Dangers) of Purchaser Alliances


A lot of Washington’s bipartisan consensus on the need of American expertise management has rightly centered on the nation’s capability to “construct the longer term” at house, safely past China’s sphere of predation in East Asia, creating American jobs and nationwide wealth, and on phrases that guarantee these applied sciences mirror American values.

Nationwide innovation initiatives, similar to the CHIPS Act, help home manufacturing of superior semiconductors, and the Trump and Biden Administrations have rightly advocated strong home AI innovation initiatives inside our personal borders.

However the different facet of the twenty first Century innovation race is a dash to forge robust alliances overseas, with patrons who will speed up home efforts by investing in, shopping for, deploying, and advantageous tuning U.S. improvements at a higher scale and revenue than would ever be attainable had been U.S. builders restricted to merely promoting to U.S. authorities businesses and firms at house.

Quite a few U.S. allies and potential allies in Europe, Asia, the Center East, and past share safety considerations about aggressive states similar to China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, and lots of share U.S. considerations associated to the financial, intelligence, and safety implications of future dependence on applied sciences developed in China.

Whereas Chinese language-based expertise builders similar to Huawei and DeepSeek have potential to outpace U.S. opponents within the coming years, the Western innovation ecosystem continues to supply the best and best number of expertise options. By leveraging allied investments in new digital infrastructure and nationwide safety, U.S.-based expertise builders can assert their industrial benefits over Chinese language opponents in high quality, number of choices, and open requirements to allow these states to implement the applied sciences they require to modernize, whereas defending themselves from aggression and sustaining their digital sovereignty.

Ought to the U.S. fail to forge these important partnerships, Chinese language rivals will outflank America’s expertise builders, penetrate and achieve everlasting footholds in overseas markets, and set up world expertise hegemony over the world’s frontier applied sciences, and the longer term.

The Cipher Transient brings expert-level context to nationwide and world safety tales. It’s by no means been extra vital to grasp what’s taking place on the planet. Improve your entry to unique content material by changing into a subscriber.

A Frequent Protection of Purchaser Alliances Strengthens US Nationwide Safety

These expertise purchaser partnerships should not merely about {hardware} and software program gross sales, market penetration, expertise jobs, and reinvestment of newly created wealth at house. By deploying U.S. nationwide safety applied sciences throughout a variety of allies overseas, the price of constructing, sustaining, and enhancing them at house will decline as their efficacy, lethality, and capability to discourage aggression will surge.

It was the open markets of globalization that enabled Chinese language companies to construct up super industrial manufacturing capability in all the things from electrical vehicles to computing and telecommunications techniques, robotics, ships, prescription drugs, and drones. The CCP has leveraged this manufacturing capability and technical experience to construct new army expertise capabilities to threaten the U.S. and its allies. China’s dual-use manufacturing capability is on vivid show in Ukraine, the place the nation’s warfighters favor cheap, highly-functional drones constructed with elements manufactured in China.

U.S. cybersecurity, AI, and protection tech software program applied sciences are solely as impactful as their suggestions loops—their capability to ingest large quantities of risk and efficiency knowledge to be able to be taught and enhance their defensive capabilities transferring ahead.

In the identical manner U.S. drone technologists are observing and studying how drones are performing (and under-performing) in contested Russia-Ukraine battlefield environments, deploying American safety applied sciences alongside all fronts of geopolitical battle will make U.S. defenses at house smarter, quicker, extra inventive, extra autonomous, and extra deadly primarily based on their potential to find out how our adversaries are working and understanding the weapons and ways they’re possible to make use of in opposition to America’s army and homeland.

Lastly, establishing U.S. applied sciences’ dominance in additional nations ensures the U.S. will outline expertise requirements as they’re adopted extra broadly. As they’re adopted, the U.S. and its allies are in a greater place to collaborate, surge assets as wanted, and execute to resolve threats quicker in occasions of super crises.

The Race Forward

We applaud the Trump Administration’s efforts to construct on current home “expertise builder” initiatives by opening new markets for patrons of American frontier applied sciences. This “expertise purchaser” diplomacy was on show in April when President Trump, accompanied by main expertise executives from OpenAI, Nvidia, and others, visited members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to ascertain substantial expertise partnership offers. We strongly help the Administration’s efforts to barter sector-specific partnerships in AI, semiconductors, cybersecurity, and uncommon earths provide chains with NATO, the EU, Japan, South Korea, India, Taiwan, Ukraine, Australia, and others.

Successful the twenty first Century innovation race will guarantee America’s long-term nationwide safety, financial prosperity, and freedom to find out its personal future. Policymakers have achieved a uncommon consensus that existential geopolitical rivalries demand the US maximize the distinctive strengths of its personal sector with public sector advocacy and funding at house. However as a result of the geopolitical wrestle with China and others is world and the stakes of the competitors so excessive, America should forge partnerships that speed up its investments and efforts at house to successfully meet the challenges confronting her overseas.

Join the Cyber Initiatives Group Sunday e-newsletter, delivering expert-level insights on the cyber and tech tales of the day – on to your inbox. Join the CIG e-newsletter at this time.

The Cipher Transient is dedicated to publishing a spread of views on nationwide safety points submitted by deeply skilled nationwide safety professionals.

Opinions expressed are these of the creator and don’t characterize the views or opinions of The Cipher Transient.

Have a perspective to share primarily based in your expertise within the nationwide safety subject? Ship it to [email protected] for publication consideration.

Learn extra expert-driven nationwide safety insights, perspective and evaluation in The Cipher Transient



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