Washington, DC – With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine dominating discussions around the globe, the Biden administration has been selling international unity in opposition to what it calls Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “conflict of alternative”.
However regardless of these efforts, the battle has highlighted cracks in a number of the United States’ most outstanding alliances within the Center East, notably with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia.
The newest manifestation of this obvious rift got here final week when the UAE hosted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad regardless of repeated warnings from Washington in opposition to normalising ties with the federal government in Damascus. It was Assad’s first go to to an Arab nation because the Syrian civil conflict broke out in 2011, and it got here weeks after the Syrian president expressed full assist for the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
“Assad coming to the UAE, shortly after the Gulf Arab nation voted to abstain from a UN Safety Council decision condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine final month, tells us that the Emiratis are very severe about asserting their autonomy from america,” stated Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics, a Washington, DC-based geopolitical threat consultancy.
Abu Dhabi’s abstention final month from the US-backed United Nations Safety Council proposal on Ukraine was adopted by anonymously-sourced media experiences alleging that Saudi and Emirati leaders rebuffed calls from US President Joe Biden. And final week, the Wall Avenue Journal reported that Saudi Arabia is in talks with China to ditch the US greenback in favour of the yuan to conduct oil transactions with Beijing.
The UAE and Saudi Arabia seem like sending a message to the US, Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a Center East fellow at Rice College’s Baker Institute for Public Coverage, advised Al Jazeera: “‘We’re going to behave upon our pursuits and never what you assume our pursuits are.’”
Mounting tensions
The Wall Avenue Journal reported this month that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman – in addition to Emirati Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan – had rejected calls from Biden. However the White Home dismissed that report as “inaccurate” whereas the US has repeatedly pressured the significance of its relationships with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Cafiero famous that the UAE is just not strolling away from its relationship with the US, as Washington stays Abu Dhabi’s “safety guarantor”. He added that the UAE enjoys a “very sturdy place in Washington”, particularly after main a push by Arab states to normalise ties with Israel by way of the so-called “Abraham Accords“.
“The management in Abu Dhabi could be very assured that it might probably take steps that upset Washington, comparable to welcoming Bashar al-Assad to Dubai and Abu Dhabi, with out having to pay an enormous worth when it comes to its relationship with the US,” Cafiero advised Al Jazeera.
Washington issued uncommon public criticism of Abu Dhabi over Assad’s go to, nonetheless. US Division of State Spokesman Ned Worth advised the Reuters information company on the weekend that the US was “profoundly upset”, calling the Syrian president’s journey an “obvious try and legitimise” his authorities.
Abu Dhabi’s push to normalise ties with Assad has been occurring for years regardless of Washington’s protests. However the UAE’s principal grievances with the US seem like over Yemen, not Syria.
Missile and drone assaults by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on the UAE and Saudi Arabia intensified in January and February – and the Wall Avenue Journal, in its article on the allegedly rebuffed calls, reported that the Gulf nations had considerations about what they view as a “restrained US response”.
The US despatched fighter jets and a guided-missile destroyer to assist bolster Emirati defences within the aftermath of the assaults, whereas US forces within the UAE additionally stated they helped intercept Houthi missiles aimed toward an airbase the place they’re stationed within the nation.
However the Emirati management has pushed the Biden administration to designate the Houthis as a “terrorist” group, a transfer that rights organisations have warned would worsen the nation’s humanitarian disaster. A Saudi-led, US-backed coalition that included the UAE intervened in Yemen 2015 to push again the rebels, who had taken over massive swathes of territory, together with the capital, Sanaa.
Annelle Sheline, a analysis fellow on the Quincy Institute for Accountable Statecraft, a US think-tank, stated regardless of the purported frustration from the Gulf nations, the Biden administration has backed Riyadh and Abu Dhabi in opposition to the Houthis, each in rhetoric and observe.
“From my perspective, this notion that the US isn’t doing sufficient to assist what the Saudis and Emiratis are doing in Yemen simply appears considerably absurd,” she advised Al Jazeera final week. “However I do know that specifically, the UAE needs the US to re-designate the Houthis as a terrorist organisation.”
International oil provides
Regardless of these contentious points, the Biden administration has stated it intends to keep up and enhance ties with its Gulf companions. White Home Press Secretary Jen Psaki famous on March 10 that Biden spoke to Saudi Arabia’s King Salman in February and stated “the president’s focus is absolutely on our relationship shifting ahead”.
The Biden administration is nearly totally centered on the disaster in Ukraine, because the US and its allies have unleashed a flood of sanctions in opposition to the Russian economic system, together with the nation’s power sector. On March 8, Biden introduced a ban on oil and fuel imports from Russia, and several other European nations have pledged to lower their dependence on Russian power provides. The turmoil has despatched petrol costs hovering throughout the US and the world.
The US has been calling for elevated oil manufacturing to decrease costs since final yr – a push that turned extra pressing after Russia launched its all-out invasion of Ukraine. However the OPEC+ oil cartel, which incorporates Russia, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, stated in early March that it will stick with its present manufacturing plans, touting a “well-balanced market” experiencing “volatility” as a result of “present geopolitical developments”.
On March 9, Abu Dhabi’s embassy in Washington expressed assist for pumping extra oil, however hours later the UAE’s power minister wrote on Twitter that the nation would abide by the present OPEC+ settlement.
Ulrichsen stated the UAE and Saudi Arabia seem like appearing as if they’ve leverage over Biden, given the home political implications of rising petrol costs within the US. He added that the US president’s troubled tenure up to now – marred by low approval scores, the chaotic exit from Afghanistan and an lack of ability to go main laws – could possibly be hardening the posture of Abu Dhabi and Riyadh.
“They might sense weak spot,” stated Ulrichsen. “And so they might imagine that enjoying exhausting might get them extra concessions. That could possibly be a part of the calculation.”
Cafiero stated Biden is attempting to keep away from a hostile confrontation with Gulf companions as he prioritises uniting the US’s allies in opposition to Russia.
“The US is attempting to convey extra Arab states in opposition to Putin, and the US is attempting to cooperate with oil-producing nations such because the UAE and Saudi Arabia, because the US and different Western nations take care of the influence of the conflict in Ukraine on power markets,” he stated. “Inside this context, the Biden administration is just not wanting a struggle with both Abu Dhabi or Riyadh proper now.”
Human rights
Past oil manufacturing and the disaster in Ukraine, the Biden administration, which pledged to place human rights on the centre of US overseas coverage when it got here into workplace in January 2021, has confronted calls to strain Saudi Arabia and the UAE to enhance their rights document and finish the Yemen conflict.
Democrats in Washington had been more and more important of ties with Riyadh, particularly following the homicide of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.
However final Wednesday, Worth, the State Division spokesperson, declined to sentence the mass execution of 81 individuals in Saudi Arabia in a single day. As an alternative, he stated repeatedly that the administration is “persevering with to boost considerations about truthful trial ensures” with the dominion.
In the meantime, the UAE’s Al Nahyan held a cellphone name with Putin final week. Based on a Kremlin readout of the decision, conveyed by Russian media, the Emirati chief “reaffirmed that Russia has a proper to make sure nationwide safety”. In a separate assertion, the UAE stated bin Zayed advised Putin his nation would proceed to coordinate with “involved events” to “assist discover a sustainable political answer to the continued disaster” in Ukraine.
In the end, the conflict in Ukraine has highlighted the truth that Washington’s Gulf allies are pursuing their very own pursuits in a world the place the US is now not the only real superpower, stated Sheline of the Quincy Institute.
“It makes rational sense for different nations to not rely a lot on the US anymore,” she advised Al Jazeera. “However then it’s irrational for the US to form of unconditionally assist these nations, particularly when at essential UN Safety Council votes, they vote in opposition to what the US is attempting to do.”
For his half, Cafiero stated the US doesn’t wish to see its Gulf companions flip to Russia and China for assist. “In a world that’s changing into more and more multipolar, these Gulf Arab nations have a lot potential to show to different powers comparable to China and Russia to achieve larger autonomy from america,” he stated.
“Officers in Washington realise that attempting to place an excessive amount of strain on a few of these GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] nations might end in them discovering their partnerships with Beijing or Moscow to be extra interesting.”
