Ukraine races toward Kupiansk—Russia’s logistical hub

Issues are transferring rapidly in Ukraine, so that you guys get a bonus replace. Even higher, it’s all nice information! My Sunday replace coated the primary massive strikes of Ukraine’s multi-front counteroffensive, which I noticed because the long-awaited end result of Russia’s struggle effort. Mark Sumner mapped most of the adjustments on Tuesday, and this morning he up to date massive in a single day advances. Since then, Ukraine has punched by Russian traces within the Kharkiv entrance and is romping of their rears. That’s what prompted me to do a second Wednesday replace. 

To recap, Ukraine spent months speaking about happening the offensive round Kherson. It was clearly a entice, a lot in order that the linked story is actually headlined “Russian traces recede south of Izyum as Russia rushes to potential Kherson entice.” The Kherson area is sure by a number of giant rivers to the Russian-occupied south and east, with few bridges offering entry. 

It behooved Ukraine to attract as many Russian troopers and gear into Kherson oblast, to then entice them by taking out these few bridges. Russian forces would rapidly run out of artillery shells, small ammo, meals, water, spare components, and gasoline. Their combating energy diminished (particularly with artillery), they might find yourself simple pickings for Ukrainian liberators.

Ukraine’s intent was apparent, everybody noticed it coming, but stupidly, Russia purchased into the scheme hook, line, and sinker. It’s like a nasty horror film, the place silly teenagers make each apparent unhealthy determination, and the viewers thinks “nobody is that silly!” Russia is that silly.

To be truthful, Russia was in a nasty place. With out Kherson, Russia would lose the one regional capital captured because the February 24 invasion. It will shatter Vladimir Putin’s grandiose notions of stretching the Russian empire all the best way to Moldova. It will be a public relations disaster, betraying Russia’s weak point and incapability to carry territory it thought of a part of Russia itself. 

Reinforcing Kherson made sense, but right here is the place Ukraine caught the most important break attainable: Nobody anticipated Russia to ship all their troops to Kherson. 

Russia clearly surmised that Ukraine wouldn’t have juice for offensive operations in two separate theaters. And it guessed that Kherson could be Ukraine’s focus. Undoubtedly, Ukraine was very apparent about its arms buildup round Kherson, leaving armor in open sight of Russian satellites and drones. It undoubtedly did the precise reverse round Kharkiv. So Russia emptied out its forces within the Kharkiv space and round Izyum to bolster their southern flank. 

Some day we’ll discover out if the Kharkiv offensive was deliberate all alongside, or if it was sparked without warning alternative. However our first clue of Russia’s weak point got here after these Ukrainian raids throughout the Siverskyi-Donetsk river, the place they discovered all the space devoid of any Russian navy presence and “liberated” Ozerne and Staryi Karavan as they roamed round taking selfies at numerous empty cities.

In current weeks, Ukraine had been chipping away at Russia’s maintain south of Izyum, step by step erasing what was a salient, and was now barely a bump. In the meantime, HIMARS usually struck Russian ammo depots, gasoline provides, and Russian command and management. We have been so centered on Ukraine “shaping the battlefield” round Kherson, that we missed them doing the identical round Kharkiv. 

As I write this, Russian Telegram sources have been reporting that Russia was retreating from Balakliya, which some would possibly bear in mind as the city bought out to the Russians by its mayor early within the struggle. Ukraine shall be salivating in any respect the superior new loot from an enormous ammo depot positioned on the town, which it presciently didn’t destroy. The favored Russian struggle reporter Starshey Eddy wrote:

It may be acknowledged that within the Balakleya operation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the time being have fully outplayed in operational artwork the [Russian] command […] Izyum prepares for battle. We want good luck to our warriors, veterans, strange troopers and officers. The enemy is getting ready a strike not solely from the north, but additionally from the south. Within the space of the settlement of Dolyna, reserves are accumulating, the enemy is deploying tanks in attacking formation. Our aviation is actively working, the night time shall be scorching.

Dolyna was featured in my Sunday replace—the city south of Dovhen’ke—which had been clearly cleansed of a Russian presence indicating Russian traces had been pushed additional north (towards Izyum) than anybody had beforehand assumed. Russia is now in a pickle, dealing with potential encirclement within the space. However Ukraine doesn’t have to assault Izyum simply but, given the starling progress of the Ukrainian advance additional north. If Russian defenses at Kupiansk fall, all the entrance collapses. Right here’s the trail: 

Ukraine reached Balakliya, left just a few troops behind to pin these Russians in place (till they slithered out), then sped to Volokhiv Yar, Semenivka, and Shevchenkove, the place they apparently did the identical. And identical to that, Ukraine superior 30-40 kilometers with low casualties, leaving neutered Russian garrisons behind, with give up or escape (with out their gear) their solely actual choices.

(That is what Russia tried to do early within the struggle in Sumy and Chernihiv, however these cities have been too massive for full containment, permitting Ukrainian forces inside these cities to raid Russian provide traces. These are small cities, simply containable.)

At this second, Balakliya is absolutely liberated. Possibly Shevchenkove is as effectively (conflicting studies). The others, it’s unclear. It doesn’t matter. A number of Russian sources have reported that Ukrainian forces are quick approaching Kupiansk, a mere 25 kilometers from Shevchenkove. And we all know there’s nothing a lot defending within the center, as a number of (gory) movies have emerged of Ukrainian infantry ambushes of Russian autos. This one, of a Russian GRAD MLRS rocket artillery, is VERY graphic, so click on at your individual danger. However I embody it to make this necessary level: GRADs have a 52-kilometer vary, they sit manner again from the entrance traces, they usually’re being ambushed and destroyed by Ukrainian infantry. That is the rear rear. There are not any defensive traces, and Russian forces are being caught by full shock. There’s additionally a whole absence of land mines, which is slowing Ukrainian advances round Kherson.

We knew Russian defenses would wrestle after they culminated, however nobody dared hope it could appear like this! 

Now take a look at this map:

The inexperienced traces are railways, and the circle? That’s Kupiansk. It’s actually the logistical hub of all the japanese entrance. These rail traces heading north go to Russia, which provides the majority of the provides for this whole a part of the map. 

A number of months in the past, when Ukraine pushed Russia again from Kharkiv, we dreamed of getting inside artillery vary of Kupiansk (which by no means occurred). Now we’re speaking about presumably occupying it! And given how deep it’s behind entrance traces, there’s an excellent probability that Russia doesn’t have a lot in the best way of fortifications or defenses. The query then turns into—does the battle devolve into house-to-house fight, or do the Russian occupiers say “f’ this!” and retreat east?

We do should be conscious of Ukraine’s personal provide traces. They don’t seem to be proof against the legal guidelines of struggle. NATO requirements is to journey with three days price of fight provides. We’re in day two. The spearhead will quickly want an operational pause. Ideally, it will get to take action inside Kupiansk, feasting on Russian provides. 

I coloured in a darker coloration the areas 100% depending on Kupiansk’s provide traces:

An addition to the Izyum space, Kupiansk provides Russian forces all the best way down the Donbas entrance. All of that shall be severed. There are different railways and roads that can try to choose up the slack, however none of them shall be as environment friendly. And we all know that Russian logistics are already inefficient sufficient. 

As for Donetsk oblast north of the Siverskyi-Donetsk river, I shaded it just a little darker—it’s not 100% lower off, however that rail line to its east is now defunct. They’ll must truck in provides from that gentle inexperienced line additional out east. I doubt it’ll lower it, and Russia can even be pressured to retreat from these positions to extra defensible and suppliable (new phrase) traces. 

Due to this fact, if Ukraine reaches Kupiansk, even its outskirts, they gained’t have to push Russian forces out of Izyum. Minimize off and remoted, combating for nothing they look after, mass give up could also be within the playing cards. Simply immediately I counted round 4 dozen POWs in numerous movies. Russians and their proxies don’t appear too afraid to give up. 

The short progress behind enemy traces has confirmed a bonanza of recent gear for the Ukrainian military. Visually confirmed, Ukraine already has six new tanks, 12 armored personnel carriers, three anti-aircraft weapons, 5 artillery weapons, and another assorted random stuff like vans. We’ll probably depend much more as extra video emerges from the advance. 

In the meantime, I’m actually having fun with these smug Russian propagandists out of the blue dropping their shit. 

Early this morning: 

Later within the day: 

So we’re now on the “purge the non-believers” section of Russian propagandists. Nonetheless, I wouldn’t be against Moscow burning down…

Oh, Ukraine made further advances elsewhere, however we are able to recap these later. None are wherever as dramatic, or strategically important, as what we’re seeing in Kharkiv.