Ukraine makes a move in Kherson, while things remain desperate in the east

Yesterday I puzzled why Ukraine was so hell-bent on defending Severodonetsk,  remoted on a deep salient surrounded on three sides and no pure boundaries, when these forces might merely cross the river and maintain out in a way more defensible Lysychansk. Retired Australian common Mick Ryan contemplated the identical in the present day, noting that “the tactical and political necessity to carry out in Severodonetsk is questionable.”

Russia’s latest successes on the japanese Donbas entrance are, largely, attributed to their brief provide strains. Russia runs into issues when these strains are stretched. That wall of artillery they’ve rained on Ukrainian defensive positions? That will get lots more durable when it’s a must to truck ammunition to these thirsty artillery batteries kilometers from the railheads that feed the Russian military. Identical with gasoline. 

Shedding Popasna to the Russians wasn’t nice, clearly, however their push from that new salient has already slowed to a crawl. And whereas Russia is gaining a few kilometer a day from the Popasna route (not an exaggeration), a tactical native Ukrainian counterattack recaptured some floor—the city of Komyshuvakha instantly north of Popasna:

This doesn’t imply Russia isn’t advancing, it doesn’t imply they won’t retake Komyshuvakha tomorrow, it simply implies that advancing is difficult, the preventing is fierce, and Russia nonetheless struggles to increase from its fundamental provide depots. That’s why Ukraine’s insistence on defending Severodonetsk is so perplexing, no matter how nicely they suppose they’ll defend it. As I preserve stating, even when Russia takes the town and its neighbor Lysychansk, Ukraine has the dual stronghold cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk in the best way of any additional Russian advances, each much more defensible by Ukrainian artillery. 

Russia’s technique is to take the complete Donbas area, Ukraine’s is to bide time for western weapons (like MLRS/HIMARS) to reach and its reserves to spin up. Like that new Ukrainian tank brigade not too long ago activated close to Kryvyi Rih, cobbled collectively from reservists, Polish tanks, and Dutch armored personnel carriers. 

Ukraine simply declared the brigade absolutely activated this week, and we’ve been questioning the place it would present up. We all know Ukraine has been reinforcing the Donbas entrance, so the was a logical vacation spot. However this bit of unusual information means that they could have their sights set on Kherson within the south. 

Igor Girkin was answerable for Russian-backed separatists within the Donbas throughout the 2014 warfare, and is a rabid Russian nationalist (Mark wrote extra about him right here). He stays nicely related to Russian and separatist army sources. And what he’s saying in that tweet is that there was a tank breakthrough close to the village of Davydiv Brid. (Ukrainian presidential advisor Aleksey Arestovych individually confirmed a counter-offensive within the space.) If Girkin is correct, we’re speaking right here, the place the purple marker is:

This city is instantly within the heart of essentially the most direct provide strains from Nova Kahkovka additional south to Russian troops which were reaching towards Kryvyi Rih (although observing them over time, they appear extra concerned about merely reaching the executive borders of Kherson Oblast, which Russia is making an attempt to annex). 

Russian telegram accounts declare 10-15 Ukrainian tanks made a river crossing into Davydiv Brid, then pushed south down that freeway to the village of Bruskynske, the place preventing is ongoing. 

If these accounts are correct, it’s not a very massive assault—in regards to the dimension of a Russian BTG (and we’ve spent all warfare mocking Russia’s under-resourced BTG-sized piecemeal assaults). Ukraine’s model new tank brigade has 100 tanks, plus one other 70 or so armored personnel carriers, so there’s much more fight energy someplace. This is perhaps a small blocking motion, designed to merely reduce off provide strains to Russian forces to the north. However, if we are able to dream, Nova Kahkovka can be an excellent juicer goal than Kherson itself. 

Nova Kahkovka is the supply of water for all of Crimea, posing a serious drawback for Russia if it had been reduce off once more (prefer it was pre-war). Simply threatening the city ought to require Russia reinforce it, “fixing” Russian troops desperately wanted for Kherson’s protection and the offensives out east. Ukraine’s management of Crimea’s water provide can be a large bargaining chip in any future negotiations. And relying on whether or not bridges survived any motion, Ukraine would have a western strategy to Melitopol—the logistical hub for provides coming from Crimea to Russian forces in southeastern Ukraine. It might be bye-bye “land bridge,” connecting Crimea to mainland Russia.

This effort is analogous to Ukrainian counter-offensives round Kharkiv within the north, which have put strain on Russia’s provide strains to the Izyum salient. Because of this, Russia has been compelled to peel away forces from Izyum to strengthen their logistical hubs and arrest additional Ukrainian good points towards the Russian border. 

By all indications, the southern axis is Russia’s least-resourced. If Ukraine will get traction, Russia might want to divert critically wanted items from the Donbas battle, and that, by itself, can be a serious win.