One other bonus replace, as holy crap issues are taking place on the bottom. Simply within the final 24 hours, I wrote about bizarre stuff taking place in Izyum and bridges round Kherson getting blasted, and Mark adopted up with Russia’s immediately precarious place in that area. Issues haven’t let up at the moment.
To recap, after months of throwing their greatest Wagner mercenaries at an influence plant in Vuhlehirs’ka, Russia lastly closed a Ukrainian salient southeast of Bakhmut, in southeastern Donbas:
That was Russia’s sole advance in three weeks. They’re like so proud!
Now let’s see what Ukraine has been as much as. Let’s begin up round Izyum, the place yesterday I marveled at affirmation that Russia had pulled its forces from a key provide river crossing (Studenok and Yaremivka) supporting offensive operations within the strategy towards the dual fortress cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
At present we discover out that Russia hasn’t simply retreated, however Ukraine has moved its forces proper as much as the river at Pasika, subsequent door to Yaremivka.
Now, Normal Employees by no means introduced the recapture of Pasika. You must crack the code. We’ve mentioned Ukraine’s code earlier than:
“Enemy shelled X” or “The enemy fired at our positions in X” means Ukraine controls X. “Enemy tried to advance within the route of X” means all of the cities behind X are in Russian arms. Ukraine’s Normal Employees won’t ever really announce the lack of a city, they’ll simply report Russia’s new advances past that city.
Saying “Within the space of the settlement of Pasika, a reconnaissance group tried to reveal the positions of our troops” is definitely much more clear than their typical bulletins. Ukrainian troops are at the moment in Pasika. Now verify this out:
Russia has been beating its head towards Bohorodychne for months. As just lately as Monday, Ukraine introduced it had repelled an assault on the village. But now we all know that Ukrainian forces are behind Bohorodychne, and sitting on its now-severed provide strains.
Which means map drawers must reconfigure that complete entrance line again round 5-8 kilometers, and we don’t understand how extensive that penetration is. Did Ukraine push up from Bohorodychne itself, or did they arrive from the route of Dovhen’ke? In reality, what’s occurring in Dovhen’ke? Could be hilarious if Russia misplaced that plot of land that value them untold lives and gear to seize.
So already, proper there, Ukraine has captured extra land in 1-2 days than Russia did in three weeks. In fact, none of that is of specific strategic worth, which lends me to consider that this isn’t a lot a counteroffensive, as it’s Ukraine strolling into territory that Russia has deserted. By all stories, from all sides, Russian forces looted Studenok and Yaremivka earlier than hauling off with their items. They weren’t pushed out. It appears unlikely that one way or the other Russian forces caught round in Pasika as effectively. The entire strategy has in all probability been deserted.
However are we speaking simply this river crossing strategy? Or is Russia rethinking the entire Izyum strategy? Rumors are that Russia is hollowing out Izyum to bolster Kherson, however zero precise proof.
At present, Russia launched a direct assault on the Ukrainian stronghold metropolis of Adviika in southeastern Donbas. This smoldering wreckage of a city is adjoining to Donetsk metropolis, which Russia has occupied since 2014, and has resisted every little thing Russia has thrown at it for eight years. Warfare prison Igor Girkin, the man who led the Donbas forces in 2014 and is now a fierce critic of Russia’s conflict (from the nationalist aspect, not from a peace-living aspect) is furious.
To summarize, he believes Ukraine is making actual inroads in Kherson, so why would Russia bash their heads towards the Avdiivka brick wall, which has a number of strains of protection. Regardless Russia’s knowledge or lack thereof, the city and its defenses are at the moment getting pounded onerous (see here and here). If Russia is experiencing a scarcity of artillery shells, they’ve determined to pay attention all of them right here. For Avdiivka, that is nothing new. Right here we’re in 2020:
So perhaps Izyum-based forces are being rushed right here, or perhaps right down to Kherson, or perhaps nowhere in any respect! The fog of conflict certain is enjoyable.
Talking of Kherson, Ukraine is pairing bridge-busting with new territorial advances, increasing their bridgehead on the Russian aspect of the Inhulets river at Andriyivka and Lozove. It’s solely two settlements, however on condition that this bridgehead was thought-about lifeless a number of weeks in the past, the truth that it’s nonetheless there and increasing (thus well-supplied) is an effective signal.
Russia is in a bind. With the Antonovsky bridge close to Kherson now out of fee, provides must be routed round Nova Kakhovka, a 90 km spherical journey, however bridges into Kherson from that route have already been focused and broken, and can be minimize in the event that they haven’t been already. DefMon did some calculations on how a lot Russian forces in Kherson devour. Assuming 15 full-strength Russian BTGs, his calculations arrived at both 225 vans per day, or 4 barges.
At round 1 kilometer extensive, the Dnipro can’t be bridged with pontoons, so Russia is working a ferry service utilizing these 4 giant barges.
As you’ll be able to see above, these barges will not be round lengthy, and in any case, are a horrible solution to resupply Kherson. Queue strains on each side will current yummy HIMARS and Excalibur long-range precision guided 155 mm munition targets. And when Russia’s artillery weapons run out of ammo, that’s their complete sport. They’ve acquired nothing else left.
If these Izyum forces are being repositioned to Kherson, effectively, they’re too late. Nova Kakhovka would make extra sense, as Russia will need to guard its treasured water provide to Crimea. However … that simply makes my “minimize off that complete chunk of territory off” state of affairs much more enticing. Melitopol-Nova Kakhovka are straightforward to isolate from each Crimea and the east. Any Russian forces speeding to that area could find yourself discovering themselves in a entice.
Over the weekend, one OSINT man on Twitter posted rumors that Russian Rosgvardia (Putin’s private nationwide guard) had been abandoning the town and its checkpoints, posting a number of footage of the supposedly deserted posts.
At present, we’re seeing footage of Russian troops heading south in Crimea. And never simply any troops. Regardless of what the caption says, these are “elite” VDV paratroopers, which we all know had been manning the Kherson protection. (Ignore him saying it’s Rosgvardia, he was subsequently corrected. They’re VDV.)
Perhaps they’re getting the hell out of dodge earlier than they’re totally surrounded, leaving sucker cannon fodder from Donbas to man Kherson’s protection. Or perhaps they’re shifting as a part of an everyday troop rotation. So many unanswered questions!
In any case, issues are beginning to decide up as Ukraine telegraphs urgency in retaking Kherson—publicly due to climate (fall rains are coming), however often because few belief Europeans to carry the road when the climate turns chilly and Russia makes use of gasoline to blackmail the continent.
