SYDNEY, Mar 10 (IPS) – Talking on the latest annual convention of the Bangladesh Administrative Service Affiliation, Chief Adviser Dr Muhammad Yunus has emphasised the necessity to create alternatives for younger folks, asserting that Bangladesh’s giant inhabitants just isn’t a burden however a helpful useful resource.
A day later, Deputy Commissioners (DCs) proposed the introduction of common navy coaching for teenagers, aiming to contain them within the nation’s defence efforts.
After all, it is a political choice, and it requires critical examinations of the proposed programme’s budgetary implications.
We have now executed some preliminary price range estimates. The excellent news is that we are able to introduce the programme progressively over 5-8 years, say starting with 10% of these turning 18 years as a pilot after which regularly cowl your entire cohort of 18-20 years previous who’re in a position to serve.
The context – seismic demographic shift
In 50 years since independence, Bangladesh’s inhabitants greater than doubled from round 70 million (7 crore) to round 174 million (17 crore), turning Bangladesh as probably the most densely populated international locations on the planet. Regardless of a speedy fall in fertility, Bangladesh’s inhabitants will proceed to develop largely as a result of momentum impact. UN Inhabitants Division tasks that Bangladesh’s whole inhabitants will attain its peak in 2071 with a inhabitants of 226 million.
Bangladesh is effectively into the third section of demographic transition, having shifted from a excessive mortality-high fertility regime to a low mortality-low fertility one. As proven within the inhabitants pyramid (Determine 1), there’s a youth bulge comprising about 28% of the inhabitants within the age bracket 15-29.
Determine 1: Bangladesh’s inhabitants by age (2024)
The UN tasks that by 2030, the proportion of youth within the age bracket 15-29 years will decline to round 25% and by 2050 to round 20%. So, that is our demographic second that comes solely as soon as (see Determine 2).
As Professor Yunus careworn, younger inhabitants is a blessing – a supply of power, vitality and vigour. A rustic with numerous younger folks not solely has a big pool of labor drive, but in addition a big pool of potential future leaders – sometimes called “demographic dividend”.
Nevertheless, demographic dividend just isn’t prearranged. It is a chance supplied by the age structural transition. This window of alternative opens for a inhabitants solely as soon as. If missed, it could grow to be a “demographic curse”.
A rustic can “grow to be previous earlier than changing into developed” – as we see within the case of Sri Lanka- characterised by a big proportion of aged inhabitants (non-working age) whereas the nation nonetheless struggles with poverty and infrastructure points. Thus, the nation not solely has fewer working-age folks (i.e., a smaller work drive), but in addition has to help numerous folks of their older age. Such a demographic state of affairs doubtlessly hinders a rustic’s financial progress and creates challenges for its social welfare methods.
Thus, a rise within the proportion of younger folks in a rustic’s inhabitants construction can deliver an enormous dividend supplied this uncooked energy is transformed into extremely expert human assets, absorbed in productive employment and changed into entrepreneurs.
This may be proven by decomposing the neo-classical manufacturing operate as follows: Y/P = Y/SE x SE/E x E/LF x LF/WP x WP/P, the place Y = GDP, P = inhabitants, E = employment, SE = expert employment, LF = labour drive, WP = working-age inhabitants.
Thus, GDP per capita (Y/P) is the product of:
- productiveness positive factors resulting from expert employment (Y/SE),
- proportion of expert employment (SE/E),
- employment fee (E/LF),
- labour drive participation fee (LF/WP) and
- demography, i.e., proportion of working age inhabitants (WP/P).
Bangladesh’s demographic dividend could grow to be a mirage. The latest pupil/youth unrest which started with a requirement for quota reform and in the end toppled the Hasina regime is a transparent indication of the financial system’s lack of ability to soak up these youthful folks in productive employment or flip them into entrepreneurs. The official unemployment determine of about 3-4% based mostly on outdated labour drive survey methodology doesn’t replicate the truth.
Nationwide service – a possible pressing answer
Our most crucial problem is stopping demographic curse and reaping demographic dividend. Obligatory nationwide service, comprising some primary defence coaching, IT and basic literacy-numeracy and vocational expertise, is not going to solely deliver monumental financial advantages, but in addition put together the nation for catastrophe administration, particularly resulting from local weather disaster. It is going to additionally act as an efficient deterrent in opposition to potential menace to our nationwide sovereignty.
At the moment, we’ve got round 1.6 crore (15.9 million) youths within the age bracket 20-24 – roughly 87 lakh females and 73 lakh males. Of the youth turning 18 years, about 29 lakh are in a position to serve, excluding child-bearing females (round 25%) and people with varied disabilities.
If 10% of the youth turning 18 years are included within the programme within the first 12 months, and Tk 12,000 monthly (equal to the present minimal wage) is used for every participant, then 5.8% of the overall 2024-25 price range proposed by the fallen regime would been required for defence. That is marginally greater than 5.3% allotted within the proposed 2024-25 price range. This determine rises to five.9% and 6.2% if coaching every participant requires Tk15,000 and Tk20,000, respectively.
The above tough and prepared estimates assume no change within the exiting allocation for different defence bills. Nor does the train contemplate effectivity positive factors.
Clearly, budgeting can’t be executed in isolation. The primary place to seek out cash is reallocation as required by reprioritisation. It must be talked about right here that the fallen regime in its final price range proposed for 2024-25 in June 2024, elevated defence price range by 11% over the revised defence price range for 2023–24. Due to this fact, this must be examined significantly; the priorities of the ‘new Bangladesh’ can’t be the identical because the fallen regime’s.
Cash may come from the financial savings that may end in different sectors, e.g., schooling as there will probably be decreased strain to broaden post- secondary schooling. If essential, the prices of such programmes must be shared by means of greater taxes for the sake of securing a affluent way forward for this nation.
Empowering the youth
Coaching and talent growth by means of necessary nationwide service is only one aspect within the provide aspect of the equation. The pool of accessible expertise must be empowered and deployed to yield demographic dividend. In any other case, it will likely be wasted and should even flip right into a disruptive drive.
Our most crucial problem is stopping demographic curse. Not solely we’ve got to reap demographic dividend, but in addition guarantee what’s referred to within the literature as ‘second demographic dividend’. Whereas the ‘first demographic dividend’ as a result of rise within the proportion of working-age inhabitants is transitory, the ‘second demographic dividend’ might be perpetual.
For this to occur international locations must put money into talent upgrading, help entrepreneurial initiatives and modern/versatile work surroundings to permit working even in older age and asset accumulation by staff.
Particularly, given the development in know-how, and notably Synthetic Intelligence (AI), we urgently must rethink talent growth for our youth. Many college levels could quickly grow to be out of date as a result of the abilities they provide are liable to automation.
Mockingly, many blue-collar, hands-on jobs are prone to survive as a result of they require psychological and motor expertise people have developed over millennia and are actually troublesome to automate. We contemplate them low-skill as a result of we take these expertise without any consideration. Then again, jobs which require high-level vital considering will even survive. We’d like pressing actions to stop our youth from falling into the “center”.
Act now
Professor Yunus has rightly understood the important thing message of youth revolt that the youth must be positioned on the coronary heart of methods as they’re dedicated to creating a brand new world which is inclusive, truthful and simply. Due to this fact, it’s logical that his authorities initiates the measures when the aspirations of the revolution are nonetheless contemporary within the minds.
Anis Chowdhury, Emeritus Professor, Western Sydney College (Australia); held senior UN positions at Bangkok & New York in financial & social affairs
Khalid Saifullah, Statistician with years of expertise working in worldwide organisations
This opinion editorial was first revealed in New Age (24 Feb. 2025), Dhaka, Bangladesh
IPS UN Bureau
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