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Trump’s Expanding War on Cartels – The Cipher Brief

by Ethan Masucol
September 23, 2025
in World
Reading Time: 6 mins read
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OPINION — “Within the 12-month interval ending in October 2024 [Fiscal Year 2024], 84,076 People died from a drug overdose, based on the newest obtainable provisional statistics from the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention (CDC), underscoring the devastating impact these cartels have on our nation.

Though these numbers present a 25 % decline for the reason that identical 12-month interval final yr [Fiscal Year 2023] – when the nation misplaced 112,910 folks to drug poisonings – demonstrating constructive momentum within the battle towards these medication and the organizations trafficking them, the menace stays grave. The pattern is hopeful, nonetheless. October 2024 was the eleventh consecutive month by which the CDC reported a discount, and the present statistics characterize the most important 12-month discount in drug overdose deaths ever recorded.”


The above was excerpted from the 2025 Nationwide Drug Menace Evaluation, an annual report from the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), which was printed Could 12, 2025, by the Trump administration’s Division of Justice and the DEA.

I discuss with that 84,076 American death-by-drug overdose determine as a result of – though it’s far greater than acceptable — it’s a lot decrease than figures used not too long ago by President Trump to justify his not too long ago stepped up U.S. navy operations towards drug cartels and significantly alleged narco-traffickers off the Venezuelan coast.

Again on September 5, when President Trump was defending the September killing of 11 alleged Venezuelan narco-traffickers, he mentioned, “We’re robust on medication. We don’t need medication killing our folks. I consider we misplaced 300,000. , they at all times say 95[,000], 100,000. I consider they’ve been saying that for 20 years. I consider we misplaced 300,000 folks final yr.”

On September 15, throughout an Oval Workplace assembly, President Trump mentioned of drug cartels, “They killed 300,000 folks in our nation final yr and we’re not letting it occur anymore.” Later that very same day, at an impromptu airport press convention, President Trump mistakenly mentioned, “the truth that 300 million folks died final yr from medication, that’s what’s unlawful.”

Solely President Trump is aware of why he inflates the variety of American drug deaths on this nation that his personal DEA officers have offered to the general public. However to me, it exhibits he desires to justify this current tactic of blowing up Venezuelan speedboats on the Caribbean Sea.

The September 2, September 15, and September 19 assaults reportedly have killed 17 people with out the U.S. navy first stopping any of the speedboats to find out whether or not they’re narco-trafficking or not – as they did with a Venezuelan fishing boat on September 13.

Nevertheless, for the three assaults, President Trump offered video tapes which he mentioned confirmed the pace boats every being destroyed. As well as, each he and Division of Conflict Secretary Pete Hegseth mentioned with the primary two, there are voice intercept tapes proving medication had been concerned and that they had been destined for the U.S. “Now we have recorded proof and proof,” Trump instructed reporters on September15, “We all know what time they had been leaving, after they had been leaving, what they’d, and the entire different issues that you just’d wish to have.”

However neither these voice tapes nor every other particular proof has been made public.

In his September 4, letter to Congress, required by the Conflict Powers Act after the September 2 assault, Trump wrote, “I directed these actions according to my duty to guard People and United States pursuits overseas and in furtherance of nationwide safety and overseas coverage pursuits, pursuant to my constitutional authority as Commander in Chief and Chief Govt to conduct overseas relations.”

In the meantime, many authorized consultants, together with retired Pentagon legal professionals, have questioned the legality beneath the legislation of wars, maritime legislation or human rights conventions for these U.S. assaults. Such assaults additionally contradict longtime U.S. navy observe.

My additional concern is that at his September 15, Oval Workplace change with reporters, President Trump mused that “there is no medication coming by sea, however they do come by land. And you realize what? We’re telling the cartels proper now, we’ll be stopping them, too. Once they come by land, we’ll be stopping them the identical method we cease the boats.”

The notion that Trump would order such an assault on one other nation’s land just isn’t far-fetched.

Again in the summertime of 2020, throughout his first time period in workplace, Trump privately requested his then-Protection Secretary Mark Esper, about launching missiles into Mexico to destroy drug labs, based on Esper’s 2022 memoir A Sacred Oath.

Early final month, each NBC and The New York Instances reported that Trump had reportedly despatched a secret directive to the Pentagon asking for choices to assault Latin American drug cartels after they’d been named as terrorist organizations.

Final Friday, The New York Instances printed a narrative that mentioned, “Draft laws is circulating on the White Home and on Capitol Hill that might hand President Trump sweeping energy to wage battle towards drug cartels he deems to be “terrorists,” in addition to towards any nation he says has harbored or aided them, based on folks acquainted with the matter.”

That Trump and Republicans on Capitol Hill are considering laws to justify what they’re already doing exhibits they acknowledge some authorized authority is required. Nevertheless, what’s additionally lacking from a lot of the present media protection is what the U.S. had initiated through the Biden administration to counter hemisphere drug cartels.

The Cipher Temporary brings expert-level context to nationwide and international safety tales. It’s by no means been extra vital to know what’s occurring on the earth. Improve your entry to unique content material by turning into a subscriber.

Again in February 2025, The New York Instances disclosed that the CIA beneath the Biden administration had, as a part of bilateral cooperation with Mexico, begun secret drone flights effectively into Mexico to hunt for fentanyl labs, and that the Trump administration was rising them.

CIA officers in Mexico handed info collected by the drones to Mexican officers, based on the Instances, however the Mexican authorities was sluggish to take motion towards the labs, though the Mexican authorities did use among the CIA info to make arrests.

Throughout a February 19, 2025, information convention, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum described the CIA drone program as a part of Mexico’s longstanding cooperation with U.S. forces. Nevertheless, on September 10, Reuters printed a extra in depth story about CIA’s counter-drug actions in Mexico, its reporters having spoken to greater than 60 present and former U.S. and Mexican safety sources, together with former CIA officers and diplomats and navy officers from each nations.

With the permission of the Mexican authorities, Reuters mentioned, the CIA had, in a beforehand covert, years-old program, individually vetted, skilled and outfitted two Mexican navy models – a Mexican Military group and a particular Mexican Navy intelligence outfit. The Military outfit is comprised of tons of of CIA-trained particular forces and, Reuters mentioned, “is seen because the navy power in Mexico most able to nabbing closely armed drug lords holed up in fortified mountain hideouts.

For instance, Reuters reported, “The CIA’s Mexican Military group in January 2023 nabbed Ovidio Guzmán López, the son of the imprisoned cartel kingpin Joaquín ‘El Chapo’ Guzmán.’”

Extra not too long ago, CIA beneath the Trump administration, has created a brand new Americas and Counternarcotics Mission Middle, Reuters has mentioned, with prime counterterrorism officers reassigned to work on Mexican cartels. The company additionally has elevated its already existent drone surveillance flights south of the border.

Nevertheless, I be part of Washington Put up Columnist David Ignatius when he questions: “Why has the [U.S.] navy been so silent because the Trump administration has pushed the bounds of legislation by…attacking alleged Venezuelan drug-smuggling boats overseas?”

As I’ve famous in earlier columns, on February 21, Hegseth, at a time when the highest Navy Choose Advocate Common (JAG) had simply retired, fired the highest Military and Air Drive JAGs giving as his solely said causes that he thought-about them not “effectively suited” for the job. Hegseth additionally mentioned he needed to keep away from “roadblocks to orders which are given by a Commander-in-Chief.”

Ignatius identified, “The Trump crew has gutted the JAGs — choose advocate generals — who’re purported to advise commanders on the rule of legislation, together with whether or not presidential orders are authorized. With out these unbiased navy legal professionals backing them up, commanders don’t have any recourse apart from to conform or resign.”

President Trump, who needed to win a Peace Prize, it appears is now firmly on a battle path.

The Cipher Temporary is dedicated to publishing a variety of views on nationwide safety points submitted by deeply skilled nationwide safety professionals.

Opinions expressed are these of the creator and don’t characterize the views or opinions of The Cipher Temporary.

Have a perspective to share primarily based in your expertise within the nationwide safety area? Ship it to [email protected] for publication consideration.

Learn extra expert-driven nationwide safety insights, perspective and evaluation in The Cipher Temporary



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