The Geopolitical Hedge Investors Overlook: Rare Earths

When China restricted exports of gallium and germanium in 2023, markets had been reminded that offer chains could be disrupted. These metals will not be family names, however they’re essential to semiconductors, protection methods, and renewable vitality, which is why the restrictions drew rapid market consideration.

Buyers are once more turning to produce chain resilience as a portfolio concern. Uncommon earth components sit in the identical class as gallium and germanium. Embedded in electrical autos, superior weaponry, and clear vitality infrastructure, uncommon earth components signify one of many few asset themes the place geopolitics immediately drives market outcomes.

That actuality was underscored in July, when the US backed MP Supplies, its solely lively uncommon earth miner, with a multibillion-dollar package deal together with fairness, loans, and a 10-year value ground on neodymium and praseodymium. The deal, mentioned additional in Winston Ma’s Enterprising Investor evaluation of a possible US sovereign wealth fund, exhibits how coverage is transferring from rhetoric to concrete capital commitments.

For buyers, the proper query isn’t whether or not uncommon earths can “beat the market.” It’s whether or not they can present diversification and resilience in moments when conventional portfolios are susceptible.

A Portfolio Framing: Uncommon Earths as a Stress Hedge

To judge this, I constructed a Most Sharpe Ratio portfolio utilizing 5 ETFs:

• REMX – Uncommon Earth & Strategic Metals
• LIT – Lithium & Battery Expertise
• ITA – Aerospace & Protection
• GLD – Gold (geopolitical hedge)
• IEF – U.S. Treasuries (defensive anchor)

The objective was to not design a market-beating technique, however to judge whether or not uncommon earth exposures add portfolio resilience. I used month-to-month returns from January 2018 to July 2025, a 36‑month rolling covariance matrix, and quarterly rebalancing. The outcomes:

• Annualized Return: 11.45% vs. 14.53% (S&P 500)
• Volatility: 21.95% vs. 17.19%
• Sharpe Ratio: 0.43 vs. 0.73

If judged solely on Sharpe ratio, the portfolio underperformed broad equities. However this misses the true level: uncommon earths are likely to outperform throughout geopolitical shocks and provide chain disruptions, exactly when conventional portfolios are most in danger.

For buyers, the sensible takeaway is to check uncommon earths alongside different diversifiers, akin to commodities, infrastructure, or protection equities, in a satellite tv for pc sleeve.

When Uncommon Earths Shine

Taking a look at latest episodes of stress and transition highlights how uncommon earths can perform as a hedge when conventional portfolios stumble.

• 2019 United States–China Commerce Dispute: Through the 2019 tariff standoff, uncommon earth and protection ETFs superior even because the S&P stumbled. This divergence highlighted their worth as a hedge in opposition to policy-driven provide chain dangers.
• 2020–2021 EV Adoption Rally: As electrical automobile demand accelerated, lithium and uncommon earth exposures surged forward of the market. For buyers, this underscores their potential to seize secular development developments whereas including diversification.
• 2023 Export Controls: When China restricted exports of gallium and germanium, uncommon earth themes drew renewed consideration and outperformed. The episode confirmed how coverage shocks can create “thematic alpha” exactly when conventional markets are susceptible.

These bursts illustrate the true worth: uncommon earths perform as a shock absorber. They received’t substitute equities, however they’ll present a counterweight when macro dangers flare.

Determine 1.

Sensible Functions

• Thematic Diversification: Use uncommon earths as a satellite tv for pc allocation that enhances massive secular themes: electrification, protection modernization, and the clear vitality transition. These exposures may give portfolios focused entry to structural development developments.
• Geopolitical Threat Premium: Acknowledge that coverage shocks, not simply market cycles, can drive returns. Export bans, tariffs, and provide disruptions usually transfer uncommon earth markets independently of equities, giving buyers a uncommon supply of true diversification.
• Portfolio Building:  Take a look at uncommon earths as a 5% to 10% sleeve inside a diversified portfolio. Pair them with gold and Treasuries to steadiness danger. The objective isn’t to outperform equities, however so as to add resilience when equities are pressured.

Key Takeaways

• Uncommon earths are usually not a silver bullet, however they’re a geopolitical hedge that buyers can’t ignore.
• Conventional danger metrics (Sharpe ratio) understate their worth: non-correlation and tail occasions.
• For allocators, the proper framing is resilience, not return chasing.
• In a world the place provide chains are susceptible, uncommon earths are greater than a commodity story. They’re a portfolio technique for managing geopolitical danger.

The creator declares no conflicts of curiosity. This text relies on publicly accessible ETF pricing knowledge (2018 to 2025). It doesn’t represent funding recommendation and is meant solely for academic functions.