The End Of Europe. It really really IS near. – Investment Watch

by Stucky

Think about the worst potential situation you possibly can for Europe.  Carried out?  OK,  now return and revise it …. and make it 10x worse. “Seven million will die!” Yeah,  it’s that unhealthy.  And the actually craziest shit of all?  Europe’s leaders are doubling down on doing an increasing number of of the silly shit that put them of their present malaise. Fortuitously, right here in America that may by no means occur as we’ve got many competent leaders … which is why it is necessary for you TBPers to vote tougher within the upcoming elections.  Weep for Europe  (it’s far too late to wish for them).

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Europe hypnotized into battle economic system

Thirty two years in the past Germans enthusiastically took down the Berlin wall. Now, captured by crafty Anglo-Saxon world elites, Germans are serving to different European “helpful idiots” to erect a a lot greater and thicker wall to chop themselves off from Russia main them right into a battle economic system. However as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has warned… “the strategy has clearly failed — sanctions have backfired — and our automobile now has 4 4 flat tires” … Query: automobiles don´t carry greater than 2 spare tires on them, do they?

So, one fast and harmless strategy to clarify such unfathomable European miscalculation is to imagine the EU management is immersed in a deep hypnotic trance and simply blindly following US-UK directions below Stoltenberg-Johnson war-mongering insurance policies. Per “The Telegraph”

Ref #1 https://www.rt.com/information/559682-johnson-uk-nato-ukriaine Ref #2 www.rt.com/information/559785-orban-eu-gas-war-economy/

suicidal non-supply

The availability strains that as much as 2022 efficiently linked Europe and Russia took many years of very onerous work to develop.

This now means that the majority of such over-abundant contracts essentially haven’t any efficient substitute as a result of (a) no different distributors have such top quality at low value plus many years of vetting and confirmed expertise + (b) the un-replaceable brief freight distance and transport time from close by Russia. So, by definition, each (a) + (b) imply that immediately no equal provide strains might ever be discovered regardless of how a lot Europe tried just because it might be both too quickly or too far …and all the time too onerous and too expensive.

So brief cuts will probably be taken and corners rounded-off…. Been there, achieved that, received the T-shirt. The impression of the above can’t be overstated although because the now-broken Euro-Russian provide strains have been important for the Simply-In-Time technique that Europe and world markets nonetheless require and can’t wait years to develop and iron out. Logistics 101: confirmed expertise and efficiency with wonderful value plus fast supply from close by sources can’t be substituted quick sufficient, or probably ever. On objective, Europe´s worst enemies couldn´t have inflicted worse hurt than what a US-UK mesmerized Europe (what else ?) is doing to itself.

So EU sanctions at the moment are reducing off dozens of key and extremely assorted Russian produce with out which Europe as we all know it can stop to exist. This includes foodstuffs, minerals of each kind, power re oil & gasoline & coal & refined merchandise thereof, and many others., and many others., plus key applied sciences and merchandise from area rocket engines to nuclear fuels. Even Roscosmos introduced that Russia will withdraw from the Worldwide House Station (ISS) challenge with the West after 2024 whereas by that point with an orbital station of its personal.

At any fee, the brand new European vendor issues for a whole lot of merchandise embrace every side of gross sales & procurement, sourcing & logistics, negotiations, pricing, contract phrases, cost, banking procedures, sampling and testing, supply pathway coordination, further trucking, roads, vessels and inland waterways for shut down pipeline supply, on-the-fly options for brand new issues, railroads, loading and unloading yards, ports, course of alignment & improve, synchronization, scheduling, constructing and adapting key infrastructure, insurance coverage, ensures, new administrative issues, buffer storage, vendor vetting, a number of regulatory compliance, and many others., and many others.

So probably the most environment friendly and swift Euro-Russian commerce routines have immediately was logistical and administration nightmares. Europe now and for the close to future — in most unfavorable circumstances — must run surprising dangers to re-do all such onerous work in a rush and for each banned Russian product, not simply coal & oil & nat-gas. And it’s not a “plug & play” course of both. It takes time. Tons of adjustments need to be made even after discovering a reliable vendor. It’s expensive, cumbersome, and susceptible to challenge creep & fatigue. All totally pointless and chaotic.

No nation within the EU is wherever prepared for any of the above, not to mention all of Europe at the exact same time with the exact same deadline.

Moreover, an impaired Germany would imply a really completely different Europe one thing which at this late stage can’t be prevented even when Germans wished to get their ft moist in a rush.

Jim Rickards now says that “Nearly every part you heard in regards to the battle in Ukraine from U.S. media over the course of March, April, and Could was a lie.” Moreover, the Western information concerning the impression of the Ukraine battle contained only a few truths that may confuse simply as a lot. Per Rickards “The economies of the U.S. and the EU are in or very close to to recession. Inflation is uncontrolled within the West and commodity shortages will lead shortly to meals shortages and extra empty cabinets in supermarkets… as financial sanctions have backfired ”.

And now labor unions add gas to the hearth totally realizing they’ve the leverage to worsen inflation which is the most popular political matter these days. So that they now demand higher working situations “with protests turning up in any respect spots within the world provide chain, together with railways, trucking, warehouses, and ports…” 

At any fee, immediately Russia is taking full management and can in all probability retain for itself what up till 2022 have been Ukraine´s greatest belongings. That features its industrial core, its enormously giant and specialised pure assets, a most fertile land paying homage to the Argentine Pampas, and all of the ports and the most important rivers with Russian territory unscathed.

No marvel Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán desires plain “out” of the present European non-strategy regardless of that Euroclear is raking in dozens of hundreds of thousands in earnings from seized Russian financial institution accounts.

Ref #3 www.rt.com/russia/558846-us-uk-eu-sanctions/

Ref #4 information.antiwar.com/2022/07/24/hungarys-orban-says-us-russia-peace-talks-needed-to-end-ukraine-war/

Ref #5 dailyreckoning.com/needless-death-and-misery/

Ref #6 www.zerohedge.com/markets/labor-has-leverage-protesting-supply-chain-workers-threaten-worsen-worlds-inflation-crisis

Ref #7 www.bloomberg.com/information/articles/2022-07-24/world-s-key-workers-threaten-to-hit-economy-where-it-will-hurt?sref=6uww027M

Ref #8 www.rt.com/enterprise/559647-eurozone-profits-frozen-russian-assets/

Ref #9 www.rt.com/russia/559598-jens-stoltenberg-calls-allies-pay/

add a low Rhine…

The Rhine River instantly impacts commerce and industrial logistics of a number of key European international locations specifically, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, France, and the Netherlands whereas not directly affecting many others or, in some circumstances, all of the others. Particularly, the über-important German inland transportation system – and subsequently its complete provide chains community – relies upon upon regular ranges of Rhine River waters.

As a result of it´s not solely a matter of sourcing the fitting high quality, amount and value of any produce. It’s simply as essential to obtain it Simply-In-Time at course of locations resembling refineries or energy vegetation as defined later. Concurrently, all European stakeholders are competing with one another tooth and nail struggling to seek out, contract and retain precisely the identical assets with a purpose to resolve the identical surprising issues unexpectedly and by the identical date. And it´s not solely coal or oil or pure gasoline — and lots of different uncooked supplies in and of themselves — but in addition for the means required to move, ship and course of all of them.

So all people and his sister would now in Europe be modifying the identical issues on the identical time with the identical assets by the identical date.

For instance, searching for the very first – and definitely unhealthy – useful resource, specifically trucking fleets of each dimension and kind and humongous quantities of EU-certified drivers thereof. This extra heavy truck site visitors would require upgrading newer roads and constructing new ones. Additionally, the completely different processes required for these completely different commodities additionally require all-around modifications at refineries, new-feedstock energy vegetation, petrochemical vegetation, and many others., and many others., and many others. Moreover, there have been no plans for any of this nor for the plentiful technical human assets required and/or vetted administration employees.

Managerially talking, that is not a contingency. It’s a totally surprising European-wide revolution with a very demanding timeframe and significant failures as probably the most possible outcome. This includes strategic value-chain upstream objects with EU captive shoppers cascading into a number of provide chain failures through lack of nat-gas, uncommon earths, inert gases, potash, sulfur, uranium, palladium, vanadium, cobalt, coke, titanium, nickel, lithium, plastics, glass, ceramics, prescribed drugs, ships, inks, airplanes, polymers, medical and industrial gases, sealing rings & membranes, energy transmission, transformer and lube oils, neon gasoline for microchip etching, and many others., and many others.

1000’s of but unknown persons are wanted to execute all of those tasks with but to be outlined job descriptions, but to be interviewed, employed, educated, groups put collectively, deployed, and many others. Many oldies will probably be known as again from retirement

For a lot of good causes – largely apparent — roads & vehicles many instances can not compete with seaborne or inner water-ways freight both by volumes shipped or ultimate vacation spot supply necessities. Moreover, the provision strains/manufacturing system is already arrange in a given manner and any change launched to earlier logistics is totally unexpected.

As an example, high-load storage amenities and high-consuming processing vegetation, refineries, energy stations and the like are conveniently positioned for vessel entry or pipelines or railways, not vehicles. So, now with everybody scrambling for ultra-hard-to-find options, EU merchandise would require greater transportation prices by, as an illustration, having to exchange sintering ores with concentrates or pellets.

And it’s unlikely for greater prices to be absorbed by the market below present situations of falling demand. So revenue margins will get but narrower – or damaging – as already below heavy strain from excessive power costs and labor prices in an inflationary vicious cycle. Ultimately this results in both very excessive inflation, or recession… and even melancholy. Additionally, an incredible meals downside has arisen as a consequence of the EU sanctions, involving ultimate produce and intermediate outcomes resembling fertilizers which in flip have an effect on yields.

hypnotized meals

EU sanctions have prevented operations with Russian grain, together with insurance coverage and the admission of Russian ships to overseas ports and entry of overseas ships to Russian ports. Russia can not resolve that nor contribute to fixing that in any manner, form, or type. Solely the EU can resolve that downside.

What Russia can and can do is to develop its economic system by relying on dependable companions as an alternative of Western international locations not prepared or in a position to adjust to the agreed phrases of commerce. No (Russian) gasoline no fertilizers, much less (Russian) gasoline much less fertilizers for everybody together with Third World economies.

Greater oil costs – or no oil – imply costlier distillates resembling diesel oil required for farming meals produce.

In view of much less Russian gasoline, BASF has slashed ammonia manufacturing which is a vital part for fertilizers.

Ref #10 www.zerohedge.com/commodities/basf-prepares-slash-ammonia-production-germany-amid-worsening-natgas-crunch

hypnotized power

Up till Jan. 2022, coal (“brown” coal, the dirtiest of all of them) was solely chargeable for 33% of energy era in Germany… however not anymore (extra on that later). Not to mention the case of oil & gasoline with extremely simplified door-to-door supply of wonderful, low-cost merchandise by way of fast and clear pipelines. BTW, the case of now badly-needed coal might be the worst of all, as its full phase-out was deliberate for 2030 however now totally reverted with de-commissioned coal-fired energy stations most likely returning as Germany´s first line power suppliers. Much less Russian pure gasoline means much less heating, much less sizzling water, much less energy and fewer fertilizer amongst different essential issues. And the EU can not print pure gasoline or Rubles.

“ Regardless of the aggressive Western sanctions… Russia has been very restrained so far as counter-measures are involved. So after loudly saying that the EU desires nothing to do with Russian power or Russian pipelines, the EU ought to hardly be upset if Russia is uninterested in laboring to not give them what they requested for, an financial divorce. The issue is Europe is now upset that it’s getting what it acted prefer it wished.” – Yves Smith – “Bare Capitalism”

Ref # 11 www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/07/the-end-of-cheap-russian-gas-turning-the-lights-out-in-europe.html

On a latest press convention Russia´s President Vladimir Putin defined that the EU power safety downside is certainly not Russia nor Gazprom. Very merely put: with lengthy winters, much less solar, low winds, and EU banks that won’t finance fossil fuels investments, plus insurance coverage corporations that don’t insure them, and native governments that don’t allocate land plots for brand new tasks, so then pipelines should not constructed… whereas demand retains rising. Then for political causes the Ukraine authorities shuts down a pipeline station. Then the Siemens-Canada downside as, by contract, generators require common upkeep and repairs.

In sum, the EU has shut-down — by itself — two Russian pipeline routes as Ukraine and Poland successfully lower off the Yamal-Europe pipeline. Ukraine overtly, Poland by refusing to pay below the brand new gasoline for roubles scheme.

The EU has additionally sanctioned one turbine whereas not commissioning North Stream 2, thus fully tying down Gazprom´s fingers. Moreover, the documentation that Gazprom acquired from Canada and Siemens didn’t reply to the turbine sanctions-waiver questions. Additionally, Gazprom is unable to completely use one other route as Ukraine has been rejecting its transit functions. In sum, Europe doesn’t have a technique. Add to that the shut-down of nuclear energy stations. And as International Minister Sergey Lavrov has mentioned, Russia not cares to narrate to Europe – or the West at giant — as it’s not “agreement-capable”.

As if all the above weren’t sufficient, many EU members now need to deploy the DE-conversion from pure gasoline and the RE-conversion into polluting coal.

This back-to-coal ´answer´ is (a) very soiled and towards Europe´s Inexperienced Plan plus different local weather pledges and laws (b) ultra-expensive (c) a serious industrial, logistical and social upheaval that might not make it by this coming winter quickly knocking on the European doorways, and possibly not even for subsequent winter 2023-2024.

This separate – but overlapping – set of main madhouse back-to-coal tasks additionally suggest huge logistics dangers and main modifications and tight schedules throughout, bids, bidders, contract oversight, certification, commissioning, and many others., and many others., and many others for which no person concerned is ready, neither regulators, nor distributors, nor consultants or engineering companies, nor finish customers, nor households, nor labor unions, nor the business at giant.

hypnotized renewables

Renewables have numerous critical issues together with their variable energy era limitations. For instance, in low wind or low solar seasons resembling 2021-2022 which Europe suffers immediately. Renewables even have very poor optics – “not in my again yard” — plus impression upon chook life with unavoidable and undesirable penalties. And though there’s extra to be mentioned, let´s conclude with the all-important de-commissioning downside in view of their fairly shortish life-span.

Moreover — with a purpose to see the sunshine of day — manufacture of renewables requires humongous loads of nat-gas, oil, coal, minerals and commodities, all of them essentially sourced in Russia not wherever else. Until the issue have been to be compounded and worsened on objective one thing fairly in style immediately in Europe.

As an example, manufacturing of wind generators requires 1000’s of tons of nickel and uncommon earth minerals. Additionally, any such giant constructions and elements thereof are to be transported to non permanent and ultimate locations — and erected — with Russian fossil-powered gear. Such can be required for the inevitable common upkeep and end-of-life decommissioning. Photo voltaic photovoltaic power requires humongous quantities of silver past perception, a course of which additionally consumes (Russian) fossil fuels in huge portions, together with the manufacture of the mining gear required.

Moreover, as quickly as renewables in giant portions are added to any electrical grid, prices go up – not down — as they need to be backstopped by fossil-fueled thermal vegetation that immediately also needs to run on Russian fuels. Please perceive and settle for that the extra renewables added, the extra pure gasoline that’s wanted.

Folks don’t settle for rolling brown-outs not to mention black-outs, so fossil gas backstops are necessary. With present present applied sciences, selling totally counter-productive and backed renewables growth as Germany has and continues to do is reckless. EV lithium batteries require lithium mining which in flip has a complete new set of issues to be resolved

Ref #12 www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/lighting-gas-under-european-feet-how-politicians-journalists-get-energy-so-wrong

hypnotized rest room paper

Per “Zeit On-Line” the brand new European hygiene standing is now able to deploy forces into rolling brown-out territory.

Is that this one other unhealthy results of the hypnotic spell ? Ref #13 www.rt.com/enterprise/559698-germans-warned-toilet-paper-shortage/

hypnotized fish´n´chips

Russian sanctions would depart British pubs with out fish’n’chips.

Ref # 14

www.rt.com/information/559748-fish-chips-uk-sanctions/

backside line

Rachel Marsden at RT has summarized it very exactly as follows:

“The battle in Ukraine dangers creating the final word nightmare for Western elites: an alternate group of allies over which the West has no management, however with the capability to supply alternatives which are aggressive with what their very own governments or international locations are providing… Western elites are doubling down in Ukraine to avoid wasting the world order that protects their very own egocentric pursuits, considering that it’s the way in which to stop a parallel possibility from rising. It’s so simple as that. They usually don’t care if it’s the typical citizen who has to pay the value”. 

Ref #15 www.rt.com/russia/558490-liberal-world-order-explained/

By banning Russian produce, the EU will carry the European sourcing matrix down on its knees, one thing which by now has already dawned on the typical European additionally realizing that – at the easiest and if not corrupted — their political class is only a bunch of ignorant fools.

With these ´Russian sanctions´ EU politicians have unnecessarily set Europe up for a whole lot of overlapping, cross-borders, gargantuan tasks not possible to satisfy concurrently, with absurd sequencing and scheduling coordination, plus peremptory timing limitations and deadlines, with numerous of well- synchronized engineering specialties and really dangerous, extremely demanding logistics, plus overwhelming authorized, political, and environmental elements.

Accordingly, this superb mismanagement in a decisive decade has the entire EU economic system totally in danger with the apparent further ache of doubtless making non-performing rushed and poorly designed modifications in every single place.

Moreover, Europe will lay our a fortune it can not afford whereas in all probability deploying soon-to-fail and bother full reconversion tasks ending up with many half-finished amenities that won’t be wherever prepared on time, or ever.

The EU technique concerning Russian sanctions and arming Ukraine has failed miserably as Europeans are being un-relentlessly ashamed with EU leaders despicably dishonest on them and everybody else amongst different issues per non-compliance of the Minsk Accords. Ukraine can not ever come wherever near profitable this battle, corruption is in every single place rampant and the extra weapons Ukraine receives from the West the longer their battle will final and the bigger territory that Ukraine will lose.

Huge migrations to Membership Med international locations (largely PIGS) are extremely possible even beginning throughout 2022

Per The Guardian, “…Come October, it’s going to get horrific, really horrific…a scale past what we are able to take care of”.

Ref #15

www.theguardian.com/enterprise/2022/apr/19/energy-chiefs-fear-40-of-britons-could-fall-into-fuel-poverty-in-truly-horrific-winter

further IMPORTANT references

www.dw.com/en/eu-prepares-for-russia-to-cut-off-gas-supply-over-sanctions/a-62493092

ec.europa.eu/fee/presscorner/element/en/IP_22_4608

www.zerohedge.com/political/amusing-tales-coal-bottleneck-germany-failure-plan

mishtalk.com/economics/amusing-tales-of-a-coal-bottleneck-in-germany-and-the-failure-to-plan

www.eurointelligence.com/

www.rt.com/enterprise/559561-russia-sanctions-removal-lavrov/

www.cnbc.com/2022/06/21/ukraine-war-europe-turns-to-coal-as-russia-squeezes-gas-supplies.html

www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220620-dutch-join-germany-austria-in-reverting-to-coal

www.rt.com/enterprise/557503-austria-coal-green-energy/

www.theepochtimes.com/electric-vehicles-trading-one-form-of-hazardous-mining-for-another_4623801.html?utm_source=associate&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge

SOURCE: THE SAKER