As many here know the 10y-2y spread has been deeply inverted for some time now, but today another commonly watched spread, the 3m-10y inverted too.
Generally a 10y-2y inversion can be seen as a forward indicator of recession where as a 10y-3m inversion suggests recession is likely imminent. Both being inverted has been a very strong recession indicator historically, but my understanding is that the Fed watches the 10y-3m specifically to gauge the health of the US economy.
I don’t think this is signalling anything we don’t already know but it does perhaps suggest the bond market now sees the possibility of a soft-landing as very unlikely.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M
