March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Friday closed up +0.03 (+0.22%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed up +21.00 (+5.58%).
Sugar costs moved greater on Friday because the latest selloff pushed costs into oversold territory, prompting some technical shopping for. March London sugar settled sharply greater on fund quick masking as Friday was the final buying and selling day for the March London ICE white sugar #5 contract.
Don’t Miss a Day:
From crude oil to espresso, enroll free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity evaluation.
On Thursday, sugar costs prolonged their 5-month-long plunge and posted 5.25-year nearest-futures lows. Considerations {that a} international sugar surplus will persist are hammering costs. Final Wednesday, analysts from sugar dealer Czarnikow stated they anticipate a worldwide sugar surplus of three.4 MMT within the 2026/27 crop yr, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26. Additionally, Inexperienced Pool Commodity Specialists stated on January 29 that they anticipate a 2.74 MMT international sugar surplus for 2025/26 and a 156,000 MT surplus for 2026/27. Additionally, StoneX stated final Friday it expects a worldwide sugar surplus of two.9 MMT in 2025/26.
Final Friday, Unica reported that Brazil’s cumulative 2025-26 Heart-South sugar output by mid-January rose by +0.9% y/y to 40.236 MMT. Additionally, the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rose to 50.78% in 2025/36 from 48.15% in 2024/25.
The India Sugar Mill Affiliation (ISMA) reported January 19 that India’s 2025-26 sugar output from Oct 1-Jan 15 is up +22% y/y to fifteen.9 MMT. The ISMA on November 11 raised its 2025/26 India sugar manufacturing estimate to 31 MMT from an earlier forecast of 30 MMT, up +18.8% y/y, as India skilled its strongest monsoon season in 5 years. The ISMA additionally lower its estimate for sugar used for ethanol manufacturing in India to three.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which can enable India to spice up its sugar exports. India is the world’s second-largest sugar producer.
Sugar costs have been undercut amid prospects of upper Indian sugar exports. On Friday, India’s authorities allowed an extra 500,000 MT of sugar for export for the 2025/26 season, on high of 1.5 MMT allowed in November. India launched a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain lowered manufacturing and restricted home provides.
Covrig Analytics on December 12 raised its 2025/26 international sugar surplus estimate to 4.7 MMT from 4.1 MMT in October. Nonetheless, Covrig tasks that the 2026/27 international sugar surplus will fall to 1.4 MMT, as weak costs discourage manufacturing.
The outlook for document sugar output in Brazil is bearish for costs. Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting company, on November 4 raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar manufacturing estimate to 45 MMT from a previous forecast of 44.5 MMT.
The outlook for smaller future sugar provides from Brazil is a supportive issue for costs. Consulting agency Safras & Mercado stated on December 23 that Brazil’s sugar manufacturing in 2026/27 will fall by -3.91% to 41.8 MMT from 43.5 MMT anticipated in 2025/26. The agency expects Brazil’s sugar exports in 2026/27 to fall by -11% y/y to 30 MMT.
On the bearish facet for sugar, the Worldwide Sugar Group (ISO) on November 17 forecast a 1.625 million MT sugar surplus in 2025-26, following a 2.916 million MT deficit in 2024-25. ISO stated the excess is being pushed by elevated sugar manufacturing in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. ISO is forecasting a +3.2% y/y rise in international sugar manufacturing to 181.8 million MT in 2025-26. In the meantime, sugar dealer Czarnikow on November 5 boosted its international 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to eight.7 MMT, up +1.2 MMT from a September estimate of seven.5 MMT.
The outlook for greater sugar manufacturing in Thailand is bearish for costs. The Thai Sugar Millers Corp on October 1 projected that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar crop will improve by +5% y/y to 10.5 MMT. Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter.
The USDA, in its bi-annual report launched on December 16, projected that international 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +4.6% y/y to a document 189.318 MMT and that international 2025/26 human sugar consumption would improve +1.4% y/y to a document 177.921 MMT. The USDA additionally forecast that 2025/26 international sugar ending shares would fall by -2.9% y/y to 41.188 MMT. The USDA’s International Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise by 2.3% y/y to a document 44.7 MMT. FAS additionally predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would improve by 25% y/y to 35.25 MMT, pushed by favorable monsoon rains and elevated sugar acreage. As well as, FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing will improve by +2% y/y to 10.25 MMT.
On the date of publication,
Wealthy Asplund
didn’t have (both immediately or not directly) positions in any of the securities talked about on this article. All info and information on this article is solely for informational functions.
For extra info please view the Barchart Disclosure Coverage
right here.
Extra information from Barchart
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the writer and don’t essentially replicate these of Nasdaq, Inc.
