Yves right here. The textual content of a tweet from Thomas Keith (in case you have a Twitter account, please comply with him!) summarizes estimates of the various substantial arduous greenback prices Israel incurred in its Iran misadventure, additionally with financial losses which have a for much longer tail, such because the lack of enterprise capital, since no investor with an working mind cell desires to function out of a battle zone. As most readers know, a major majority of consultants and different commentators see the cessation of hostilities as momentary and anticipate extra kinetic motion, as in additional destruction.
We mentioned on the outset that Israel has a glass jaw. It’s by no means been on the receiving finish of the punishment it has been casually handing out for many years. As Alastair Crooke mentioned after the October 7 assault, the raison d’etre for Israel was to be a protected haven for Jews. That perception was broken then and never it has been smashed to bits.
Official tallies appear modest in comparison with the Keith’s listing:
Israel estimates point out that the price might rise to $20 billion, with injury affecting the economic system, society, and strategic infrastructure.
The Compensation Fund of the Israeli Tax Authority acknowledged that it had acquired round 39,000 claims for direct materials injury ensuing…
— Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 (@ejmalrai) June 26, 2025
Two days earlier, the Instances of Israel estimated the injury at a paltry $1.5 billion, solely twice the extent of injury inflicted within the Hamas assaults. For reference, Israel’s GDP is $513 billion.
Be aware that regardless that the listing under is in depth and particular, there are additional prices it omits, partly as a result of they will’t but be moderately estimated:
1. The extreme financial downdraft as extra Israelis flee if and when the nation is opened up once more, notably the high-skilled ones on whom the economic system relies upon. We lined that vulnerability at size in a June 2024 publish, Israel Economic system Bleeding Out as Injury Compounds. Be aware specifically that it cited an Israeli economist who says the nation depends upon a mere 300,000 professionals1
2. The lack of extra IDF troopers, which Israel has but to confess to.
3. The price of the injury to ports, which works past the price of repairing infrastructure to the lack of shipments, which may very well be protracted if insurers are leery
4. The chances that the BDS motion will achieve extra steam as Israel saved up its genocide even through the Iran battle. From Aljazeera:
Since Israel started attacking Iran on June 13, international consideration on the plight of Palestinians within the occupied territory has pale from the headlines.
However Israel has continued to assault Palestinians in Gaza, whereas conducting lethal raids within the West Financial institution…
“Israel is utilizing the diverted consideration away from Gaza to proceed to hold out atrocious crimes towards ravenous civilians,” mentioned Omar Rahman, an knowledgeable on Israel and Palestine for the Center East Council on International Affairs assume tank.
“We’ve got additionally seen numerous navy and settler exercise within the West Financial institution in latest days,” he instructed Al Jazeera.
Israel’s violence towards helpless Palestinians on the GHF website on Tuesday resulted within the highest single demise toll at any GHF website because the controversial organisation started operations final month. It has been lambasted for what opponents have referred to as the militarisation of humanitarian assist aid.
Readers can add to this and Thomas Keith’s listing; full textual content under the embed:
Israel entered the 12-day trade satisfied it might take up prices; the ledger now exhibits a nation bleeding money, expertise, and confidence. Direct navy outlays hit $5 B within the first week, then ballooned to $725 M each 24 hours, $593 M on offensive strikes that did not silence…
— Thomas Keith (@iwasnevrhere_) June 25, 2025
Israel entered the 12-day trade satisfied it might take up prices; the ledger now exhibits a nation bleeding money, expertise, and confidence. Direct navy outlays hit $5 B within the first week, then ballooned to $725 M each 24 hours, $593 M on offensive strikes that did not silence Iran, $132 M on frantic mobilisation and missile intercepts that also let 400 warheads via. Iron Dome batteries alone inhaled $10 M to $200 M per day whereas Iranian salvos sailed previous them and erased $1.47 B in civilian property, triggering 38 700 injury claims, 11 000 evacuations, and 30 condemned high-rise skeletons throughout Tel Aviv’s monetary backbone.
The Weizmann Institute, Israel’s status export, lies in shards, 45 labs gone and $500 M in biomedical IP incinerated, pulling a long time of grant pipelines and pharma partnerships off the desk in a single day. Intel’s Kiryat Gat fabs froze mid-wafer, choking a provide chain that feeds 64 % of Israel’s exports and 1/5 of its GDP; the high-tech sector now runs on skeleton crews as a result of 300 000 reservists had been yanked from R&D flooring and knowledge facilities to protect empty runways at Tel Nof. Industrial flights halted twice at Ben Gurion, insurers jacked premiums, and overseas airways rerouted round a rustic that when offered itself because the area’s protected hub.
Capital is already in flight. Greater than 80 000 Israelis emigrated in 2024, the biggest outflow since 1948, pushing the two-year complete above 500 000 and forcing Netanyahu’s cupboard to slap a journey ban on Jewish twin nationals to stem the leak. Investor confidence cratered: enterprise funds paused time period sheets, building websites stand idle, and mega-projects wait on credit score that not clears. The finance ministry, gazing a deficit set to shove public debt previous 75 % of GDP, begged for an additional $857 M in defence money whereas slicing $200 M from hospitals and colleges.
Analysts peg Israel’s combination loss between $11.5 B and $17.8 B, as much as 3.3 % of GDP, earlier than counting long-tail hits from halted exports, cancelled IPOs, and sovereign-risk downgrades. Iran, nonetheless sitting on its uranium stockpile, spent a fraction of that but compelled the self-styled “Begin-Up Nation” right into a liquidity scramble, an insurance coverage panic, and a brain-drain spiral. Tel Aviv promised deterrence; Tehran handed it a steadiness sheet in crimson ink and the seen stamp of strategic humiliation.
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It’s not clear how a lot depth and resilience Israel’s economic system (and society) have. Some on the anti-war proper assert that Israel is a pretend economic system, extra an imperial outpost than a fairly self-supporting nation. It is a subject I’d like to look at additional however lack the bandwidth at this juncture. Any reader knowledge factors (higher but knowledge sources) are very a lot welcome.
On the floor, Israel’s import and export statistics don’t point out a lot US dependence…
To flip the query: what turns into of Israel if it continues to undergo an exodus, notably of extremely expert, extremely cellular professionals and consultants? Many argue that the US and rich Zionists can proceed to prop Israel up on an open-ended foundation. However what if sufficient “expertise” leaves and companies shutter in order that the assist goes into what more and more seems like a welfare queen? And the way does a state that has turn out to be that a lot of a dependency defend itself in a neighborhood that it has united towards it?
Now to among the highlights from the vital Mondoweiss story, which I encourage you to learn in full. Critically, it describes extreme, probably irreparable injury all throughout the economic system:
The financial indicators converse of nothing lower than an financial disaster. Over 46,000 companies have gone bankrupt, tourism has stopped, Israel’s credit standing was lowered, Israeli bonds are offered on the costs of virtually “junk bonds” ranges, and the overseas investments which have already dropped by 60% within the first quarter of 2023 (because of the insurance policies of Israel’s far-right authorities earlier than October 7) present no prospects of restoration. The vast majority of the cash invested in Israeli funding funds was diverted to investments overseas as a result of Israelis are not looking for their very own pension funds and insurance coverage funds or their very own financial savings to be tied to the destiny of the State of Israel. This has triggered a stunning stability within the Israeli inventory market as a result of funds invested in overseas shares and bonds generated revenue in overseas foreign money, which was multiplied by the rise within the trade charge between foreign currency and the Israeli Shekel. However then Intel scuttled a $25 billion funding plan in Israel, the largest BDS victory ever.
The disaster strikes deeper on the technique of manufacturing of the Israeli economic system.
These are all monetary indicators. However the disaster strikes deeper on the technique of manufacturing of the Israeli economic system. Israel’s energy grid, which has largely switched to pure gasoline, nonetheless depends upon coal to produce demand. The largest provider of coal to Israel is Colombia, which introduced that it could droop coal shipments to Israel so long as the genocide was ongoing. After Colombia, the subsequent two greatest suppliers are South Africa and Russia. With out dependable and steady electrical energy, Israel will not be capable of faux to be a developed economic system. Server farms don’t work with out 24-hour energy, and nobody is aware of what number of blackouts the Israeli high-tech sector might probably survive. Worldwide tech firms have already began closing their branches in Israel.An apart: the lack of Colombia’s coal provides clearly would have a critical impression, if nothing else on costs as Israel scrambles for substitute sources. Whether or not the result’s Ukraine-style each day outages has but to be seen, but when so, for a sophisticated economic system, the impression can be devastating. These are the highest coal exporters in 2023, per Tradeimex Options, so Israel will not be bereft of options.
However how shortly can it line up alternative provide agreements? And to what extent would these new shipments be weak to Houthi assaults?
The flip facet is that this part might considerably understate the deteriorating situation of Israel’s companies. In a July story, the Cradle cites CEO of Israeli data companies and credit score threat administration agency, CofaceBdi, who mentioned 60,000 companies are anticipated to have closed by yr finish 2024. The tweeted video under claims (with out sourcing, however its different stats echo these from mainstream accounts) that fifty% of startups are on monitor to closing inside six months:
Israel’s Economic system is falling aside from so many angles pic.twitter.com/2iPeLPipyB
— Gaza Below Attack_🇵🇸 (@Palestine001_) July 17, 2024
Again to Mondoweiss:
Israel’s popularity as a “startup nation” depends upon its tech sector, which in flip depends upon extremely educated workers. Israeli teachers report that joint analysis with universities overseas has declined sharply because of the efforts of pupil encampments. Israeli newspapers are filled with articles in regards to the exodus of educated Israelis. Prof. Dan Ben David, a well-known economist, argued that the Israeli economic system is held collectively by 300,000 individuals (the senior workers in universities, tech firms, and hospitals). As soon as a good portion of those individuals leaves, he says, “We received’t turn out to be a 3rd world nation, we simply received’t be anymore.”…
The 2 sectors of the Israeli economic system that don’t report a crash are the arms firms, that are reporting excessive gross sales (though most of them are home, arming the genocide), and the “exits” — as worldwide companies scavenge the carcasses of Israel’s tech sector searching for bargains. Even Google expressed curiosity in shopping for the Israeli cyber safety firm Wiz, based by Israeli intelligence officers who’re wanting to promote their firm to Google so as to have the ability to depart Israel…
Within the age of the knowledge economic system, the financial prospects of states are neither decided by uncooked supplies nor the standard of the workforce. As an alternative, we reside in an period of an “economic system of expectations.” The hype of Israel’s “startup nation” has became a #Shutdownnation. Two senior Israeli economists, Jugene Kendel and Ron Tzur, printed a secret report through which they predict that Israel is not going to survive to its a centesimal yr. The report is saved secret as a result of they are not looking for it to turn out to be a self-fulfilling prophecy, however they gave interviews about it.
