Swiss government proposes tough new capital rules in major blow to UBS

The Swiss authorities on Friday proposed strict new capital guidelines that may require banking big UBS to carry an extra $26 billion in core capital, following its 2023 takeover of stricken rival Credit score Suisse.

The measures would additionally imply that UBS might want to totally capitalize its international items and doubtlessly perform fewer share buybacks.

“The rise within the going-concern requirement must be met with as much as USD 26 billion of CET1 capital, to permit the AT1 bond holdings to be lowered by round USD 8 billion,” the federal government stated in a Friday assertion, referring to UBS’ holding of Further Tier 1 (AT1) bonds.

The measures due to this fact quantity to an extra $26 billion in core capital however a requirement of simply $18 billion in new capital. That is $2 billion decrease than the $20 billion estimated by JP Morgan earlier this week.

UBS shares jumped 6% following the announcement and ended Friday’s buying and selling session 3.8% greater.

The Swiss financial institution will grow to be extra steady and enticing in areas reminiscent of asset administration, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter stated throughout a press briefing on Friday. “I do not imagine that the competitiveness might be impaired, however it’s true that progress overseas will grow to be dearer,” she stated in feedback reported by Reuters.

UBS stated whereas it helps “in precept” a lot of the regulatory proposals introduced on Friday, it strongly disagrees with the “excessive” enhance in capital necessities. Primarily based on the financial institution’s first-quarter outcomes, its CET1 capital ratio goal of between 12.5% and 13% — together with beforehand communicated capital — the agency stated it might be required to carry round $42 billion in extra CET1 capital in whole.

The financial institution maintained its goal of reaching an underlying return on CET1 capital of round 15% and in addition reaffirmed its capital return intentions for the 12 months.

“UBS will actively have interaction within the session course of with all related stakeholders and contribute to evaluating alternate options and efficient options that result in regulatory change proposals with an inexpensive price/profit end result. UBS may even consider applicable measures, if and the place attainable, to handle the unfavorable results that excessive laws would have on its shareholders,” the financial institution stated.

Johann Scholtz, senior fairness analyst at Morningstar, famous that the information was “as dangerous as it would get for UBS.”

The banking big “can now foyer for some concessions and take some actions themselves to mitigate affect, as an example upstream some extra capital from its subsidiaries,” Scholtz stated. He added that whereas negotiations will begin instantly, there might be a long-phase out for UBS to deploy the measures, with the earliest that it’s going to apply in full being 2034.

JPMorgan analysts led by Kian Abouhossein additionally confused {that a} lengthy lead time of six to eight years for UBS to fulfil the deduction of investments in its international items is a “optimistic” end result for the financial institution. With finalization anticipated round 2027, JPMorgan expects full implementation by 2033 on the earliest.

UBS is anticipated to generate round $12 billion [per annum] in earnings with a dividend of about $3 billion, which implies the financial institution can “fulfill its ‘capital hole’ by 2033+ and nonetheless proceed with buybacks,” the analysts stated.

The Swiss Nationwide Financial institution stated it supported the measures from the federal government as they’ll “considerably strengthen” UBS’ resilience.

“In addition to lowering the chance of a giant systemically vital financial institution reminiscent of UBS stepping into monetary misery, this measure additionally will increase a financial institution’s room for manoeuvre to stabilise itself in a disaster via its personal efforts. This makes it much less possible that UBS must be bailed out by the federal government within the occasion of a disaster,” SNB stated in a Friday assertion.

UBS has been battling the specter of tighter capital guidelines since buying the nation’s second-largest financial institution at a cut-price following years of strategic errors, mismanagement and scandals at Credit score Suisse.

The shock demise of the banking big additionally introduced Swiss monetary regulator FINMA underneath fireplace for its perceived scarce supervision of the financial institution and the last word timing of its intervention.

Swiss regulators argue that UBS should have stronger capital necessities to safeguard the nationwide economic system and monetary system, given the financial institution’s steadiness topped $1.7 trillion in 2023, roughly double the projected Swiss financial output of final 12 months. UBS insists it isn’t “too large to fail” and that the extra capital necessities — set to empty its money liquidity — will affect the financial institution’s competitiveness.

On the coronary heart of the standoff are urgent issues over UBS’ means to buffer any potential losses at its international items, the place it has, till now, had the obligation to again 60% of capital with capital on the father or mother financial institution.

Increased capital necessities can whittle down a financial institution’s steadiness sheet and credit score provide by bolstering a lender’s funding prices and choking off their willingness to lend — in addition to waning their urge for food for threat. For shareholders, of be aware would be the potential affect on discretionary funds accessible for distribution, together with dividends, share buybacks and bonus funds.

“Whereas winding down Credit score Suisse’s legacy companies ought to unlock capital and scale back prices for UBS, a lot of those positive factors might be absorbed by stricter regulatory calls for,” Johann Scholtz, senior fairness analyst at Morningstar, stated in a be aware previous the FINMA announcement. 

“Such measures might place UBS’s capital necessities effectively above these confronted by rivals in the US, placing stress on returns and lowering prospects for narrowing its long-term valuation hole. Even its long-standing premium ranking relative to the European banking sector has just lately evaporated.”

The prospect of stringent Swiss capital guidelines and UBS’ intensive U.S. presence via its core international wealth administration division comes as White Home commerce tariffs already weigh on the financial institution’s fortunes. In a dramatic twist, the financial institution misplaced its crown as continental Europe’s most precious lender by market capitalization to Spanish big Santander in mid-April.

– CNBC’s Ganesh Rao contributed to this report.