March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Monday closed down -0.49 (-3.04%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) closed down -6.40 (-1.42%).
Sugar costs prolonged their week-long stoop on Monday, with NY sugar posting a 3-week low and London sugar falling to a 4.25-year nearest-futures low. Sugar costs have been beneath stress over the previous seven months, with NY sugar posting a 4.5-year nearest-futures low (SBV25) final month on indicators of upper sugar output in Brazil. On October 2, Unica reported that Brazil’s Heart-South sugar output within the first half of September rose by +15.7% y/y to three.622 MT. Additionally, the share of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills within the second half of August elevated to 53.49% from 47.74% the identical time final yr. Nonetheless, cumulative 2025-26 Heart-South sugar output via mid-September fell -0.1% y/y to 30.388 MMT.
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The outlook for strong world sugar provides is bearish for costs. On Monday, BMI Group projected a worldwide 2025/26 sugar surplus of 10.5 MMT, and final Tuesday, Covrig Analytics projected a worldwide 2025/25 sugar surplus of 4.1 MMT.
The outlook for larger sugar exports from India is adverse for sugar costs, as ample monsoon rains could produce a bumper sugar crop. On September 30, India’s Meteorological Division reported that the cumulative monsoon rainfall in India as of September 30 was 937.2 mm, 8% above regular, marking the strongest monsoon in 5 years. On June 2, India’s Nationwide Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +19% y/y to 34.9 MMT, citing bigger planted cane acreage. That will comply with a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar manufacturing in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, in accordance with the Indian Sugar Mills Affiliation (ISMA).
One other bearish issue for sugar was the current assertion from sugar dealer Sucden that India could divert 4 MMT of sugar to make ethanol in 2025/26, which isn’t sufficient to ease the nation’s sugar surplus and should immediate India’s sugar mills to export as a lot as 4 MMT of sugar, above earlier expectations of two MMT. India is the world’s second-largest producer of sugar.
The outlook for larger sugar manufacturing in Thailand is bearish for costs after the Thai Sugar Miller Corp on October 1 projected that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar crop will enhance by +5% y/y to 10.5 MMT. On Could 2, Thailand’s Workplace of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar manufacturing rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT. Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter of sugar.
Final Tuesday, NY sugar posted a 1.75-month excessive as indicators of decrease sugar content material from this yr’s Brazil sugar crush sparked a quick bout of brief overlaying in sugar futures. On October 2, Unica reported that the sugar content material in Brazil’s Heart-South sugarcane crushed cane within the first half of September dropped to 154.58 kilograms per ton (kg/ton) in comparison with 160.07 kg/ton in the identical interval a yr earlier.
On August 29, the Worldwide Sugar Group (ISO) forecast a worldwide sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, the sixth consecutive yr of sugar deficits. ISO tasks a worldwide 2025/26 sugar deficit of -231,000 MT, down from the -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25. ISO additionally tasks 2025/26 world sugar manufacturing will rise by +3.3% y/y to 180.6 MMT, and 2025/26 world sugar consumption will enhance +0.3% y/y to 180.8 MMT.
The USDA, in its bi-annual report launched Could 22, projected that world 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +4.7% y/y to a report 189.318 MMT and that world 2025/26 human sugar consumption would enhance +1.4% y/y to a report 177.921 MMT. The USDA additionally forecasted that 2025/26 world sugar ending shares would climb +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT. The USDA’s International Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise +2.3% y/y to a report 44.7 MMT FAS predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise +25% y/y to 35.3 MMT resulting from favorable monsoon rains and elevated sugar acreage. FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing will climb +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT.
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