March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) at present is up +0.20 (+1.35%). March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) is up +2.40 (+0.56%).
Sugar costs recovered from 1-week lows at present and are sharply increased on some year-end fund brief masking. Sugar worth initially fell at present after the greenback index (DXY00) rose to a 1-week excessive, which weighed on most commodity costs.
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On Monday, NY sugar matched final Wednesday’s 2.25-month excessive on expectations of smaller future sugar provides from Brazil. Final Tuesday, consulting agency Safras & Mercado mentioned that Brazil’s sugar manufacturing in 2026/27 will fall by -3.91% to 41.8 MMT from 43.5 MMT anticipated in 2025/26. The agency expects Brazil’s exports in 2026/27 to fall -11% y/y to 30 MMT.
Indicators of a bigger sugar crop in India, the world’s second-largest producer, are undercutting costs after the India Sugar Mill Affiliation (ISMA) on November 11 raised its 2025/26 India sugar manufacturing estimate to 31 MMT from an earlier forecast of 30 MMT, up +18.8% y/y. The ISMA additionally minimize its estimate for sugar used for ethanol manufacturing in India to three.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which can enable India to spice up its sugar exports. In the meantime, the India Sugar Mill Affiliation (ISMA) reported at present that Indian 2025-26 sugar manufacturing from October 1 to December 31 jumped +24% y/y to 11.83 MMT.
Sugar costs have been below strain earlier this month amid prospects of upper sugar exports from India, after India’s meals secretary mentioned the federal government could allow further sugar exports to cut back a home provide glut. Final month, India’s meals ministry mentioned it will enable mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar within the 2025/26 season. India launched a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain decreased manufacturing and restricted home provides.
The outlook for report sugar output in Brazil is bearish for costs. Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting company, on November 4 raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar manufacturing estimate to 45 MMT from a earlier forecast of 44.5 MMT. Unica reported on December 16 that Brazil’s cumulative 2025-26 Middle-South sugar output by way of November rose by +1.1% y/y to 39.904 MMT. Additionally, the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rose to 51.12% in 2025/36 from 48.34% in 2024/25.
On the bearish aspect for sugar, the Worldwide Sugar Group (ISO) on November 17 forecast a 1.625 million MT sugar surplus in 2025-26, following a 2.916 million MT deficit in 2024-25. ISO mentioned the excess is being pushed by elevated sugar manufacturing in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. ISO is forecasting a +3.2% y/y rise in world sugar manufacturing to 181.8 million MT in 2025-26. In the meantime, sugar dealer Czarnikow on November 5 boosted its world 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to eight.7 MMT, up +1.2 MMT from a September estimate of seven.5 MMT.
The outlook for increased sugar manufacturing in Thailand is bearish for costs. The Thai Sugar Millers Corp on October 1 projected that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar crop will enhance by +5% y/y to 10.5 MMT. Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter.
The USDA, in its bi-annual report launched on December 16, projected that world 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +4.6% y/y to a report 189.318 MMT and that world 2025/26 human sugar consumption would enhance +1.4% y/y to a report 177.921 MMT. The USDA additionally forecast that 2025/26 world sugar ending shares would fall by -2.9% y/y to 41.188 MMT. The USDA’s International Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise by 2.3% y/y to a report 44.7 MMT. FAS additionally predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would enhance by 25% y/y to 35.25 MMT, pushed by favorable monsoon rains and elevated sugar acreage. As well as, FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing will enhance by +2% y/y to 10.25 MMT.
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