The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) immediately is down -0.02%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.14%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.18%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are down -0.01%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are down -0.16%.
Inventory indexes are posting modest losses immediately, led by losses in chipmakers after Texas Devices forecasted This autumn income that was under expectations. Different company earnings outcomes immediately are combined for shares. Intuitive Surgical is up greater than +16% after boosting its worldwide Da Vinci process progress forecast for the entire yr. Additionally, Capital One Monetary is up greater than +3% after reporting better-than-expected Q3 adjusted EPS. Conversely, Netflix is down greater than -7% after reporting weaker-than-expected Q3 EPS.
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US MBA mortgage purposes fell -0.3% within the week ended October 17, with the acquisition mortgage sub-index down -5.2% and the refinancing sub-index up +4.0%. The common 30-year fastened charge mortgage fell -5 bp to six.37% from 6.42% within the prior week.
The markets are specializing in progress in US-China commerce talks, as President Trump reiterated his menace on Monday to spice up tariffs on Chinese language items “if there is not a deal” by November 1. President Trump is scheduled to fulfill Chinese language President Xi Jinping subsequent week on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Financial Cooperation convention in South Korea.
The shutdown of the US authorities continues into its fourth week, weighing on market sentiment and delaying key financial reviews. The federal government shutdown means delays within the launch of presidency reviews, together with the final three weeks of weekly preliminary unemployment claims and the Sep payroll report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) mentioned the September client value report, which was initially scheduled to be launched final Wednesday, might be launched this Friday. The White Home has warned that if the federal government shutdown lingers, it will set off widespread dismissals of workers in authorities applications that do not align with President Trump’s priorities. Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal staff might be furloughed in the course of the shutdown, which might develop jobless claims and push the unemployment charge as much as 4.7%.
The markets this week will concentrate on earnings outcomes because the Q3 earnings season continues. Rising company earnings expectations are a bullish backdrop for shares. Based on Bloomberg Intelligence, 85% of the S&P 500 firms which have reported up to now have overwhelmed forecasts, on track for the most effective quarter since 2021. Additionally, greater than 22% of firms within the S&P 500 which have offered steerage for his or her Q3 earnings outcomes are anticipated to beat analysts’ expectations, the best in a yr. Nonetheless, Q3 earnings are anticipated to have risen by +7.2% y/y, the smallest improve in two years. Additionally, Q3 gross sales progress is projected to sluggish to +5.9% y/y from 6.4% in Q2.
The markets are pricing in a 97% likelihood of a -25 bp charge reduce on the subsequent FOMC assembly on Oct 28-29.
Abroad inventory markets are decrease immediately. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.19%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed down -0.07%. Japan’s Nikkei Inventory 225 closed down -0.02%.
Curiosity Charges
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) immediately are down -2 ticks. The ten-year T-note yield is up +0.8 bp to three.963%. Provide pressures are weighing on T-notes because the Treasury will public sale $13 billion of 20-year T-bonds later immediately. Losses in T-notes are contained as a result of ongoing US authorities shutdown, which may result in extra job losses, decreased client spending, and a weakened US economic system, doubtlessly permitting the Fed to proceed slicing rates of interest.
European authorities bond yields are combined immediately. The ten-year German bund yield is up +0.9 bp to 2.561%. The ten-year UK gilt yield dropped to a 6.5-month low of 4.369% and is down -7.7 bp to 4.401%.
UK Sep CPI rose +3.8% y/y, unchanged from Aug and weaker than expectations of +4.0% y/y. Sep core CPI unexpectedly eased to +3.5% y/y from +3.6% y/y in Aug, weaker than expectations of +3.7% y/y.
Swaps are discounting a 2% likelihood for a -25 bp charge reduce by the ECB at its subsequent coverage assembly on October 30.
US Inventory Movers
Netflix (NFLX) is down greater than -7% to steer losers within the S&P 500 after reporting Q3 EPS of $5.87, properly under the consensus of $6.94.
Texas Devices (TXN) is down greater than -7% to steer chipmakers decrease after forecasting This autumn income of $4.22 billion to $4.58 billion, with the midpoint under the consensus of $4.50 billion. Additionally, Microchip Know-how (MCHP) is down greater than -4% and Analog Gadgets (ADI) is down greater than -3%. As well as, NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) and ON Semiconductor (ON) are down greater than -2%, and Marvell Know-how (MRVL), GlobalFoundries (GFS), Qualcomm (QCOM), and Intel (INTC) are down greater than -1%.
Cryptocurrency-exposed shares are sliding immediately, with the value of Bitcoin down greater than -2%. Because of this, Coinbase International (COIN), Galaxy Digital (GLXY), MARA Holdings (MARA), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and Technique (MSTR) are down greater than -1%.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is down greater than -9% after asserting a non-public providing of $850 million of convertible senior notes due 2036.
Manhattan Associates (MANH) is down greater than -6% after reporting Q3 remaining efficiency obligations (RPOs) amounted to $2.077 billion, under the consensus of $2.088 billion.
Mattel (MAT) is down greater than -5% after reporting Q3 internet gross sales of $1.74 billion, weaker than the consensus of $1.84 billion.
W R Berkley (WRB) is down by greater than -1% after BMO Capital Markets downgraded the inventory to underperform from market carry out with a value goal of $64.
Industrial Metals (CMC) is down greater than -2% after Jeffries downgraded the inventory to carry from purchase.
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) is up greater than +16% to steer gainers within the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after boosting its worldwide Da Vinci process progress forecast for the entire yr.
Pegasystems (PEGA) is up greater than +15% after reporting Q3 income of $381.4 million, properly above the consensus of $351.8 million.
Amphenol (APH) is up greater than +8% after reporting Q3 Ebitda of $1.93 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.64 billion.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) is up greater than +4% after elevating its full-year adjusted Ebitda to $3.69 billion-$3.72 billion from a earlier forecast of $3.65 billion-$3.71 billion, above the consensus of $3.68 billion.
Capital One Monetary (COF) is up greater than +3% after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of $5.95, properly above the consensus of $4.39.
Avadel Prescribed drugs (AVDL) is up greater than +3% after Alkermes agreed to accumulate the corporate for about $2.1 billion, or $20 per share.
Vertiv Holdings (VRT) is up greater than +2% after elevating its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $4.07-$4.13 from a earlier estimate of $3.75-$3.85, stronger than the consensus of $3.83.
Alphabet (GOOGL) is up greater than +1% on information that Anthropic PBC is in discussions with Google a few deal for cloud computing companies valued within the excessive tens of billions of {dollars}.
Earnings Reviews(10/22/2025)
Alcoa Corp (AA), Amphenol Corp (APH), Annaly Capital Administration Inc (NLY), AT&T Inc (T), Avery Dennison Corp (AVY), Boston Scientific Corp (BSX), CACI Worldwide Inc (CACI), Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN), CME Group Inc (CME), Crown Citadel Inc (CCI), Fairness LifeStyle Properties In (ELS), First American Monetary Corp (FAF), FirstEnergy Corp (FE), GE Vernova Inc (GEV), Globe Life Inc (GL), Graco Inc (GGG), Hexcel Corp (HXL), Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT), Worldwide Enterprise Machine (IBM), Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI), Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc (KNX), Lam Analysis Corp (LRCX), Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS), Lennox Worldwide Inc (LII), Lithia Motors Inc (LAD), Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP), Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH), Moody’s Corp (MCO), Northern Belief Corp (NTRS), NVR Inc (NVR), O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY), Packaging Corp of America (PKG), QuantumScape Corp (QS), Raymond James Monetary Inc (RJF), Reliance Inc (RS), Robert Half Inc (RHI), SEI Investments Co (SEIC), Sonoco Merchandise Co (SON), Southern Copper Corp (SCCO), SOUTHSTATE BANK CORP (SSB), Southwest Airways Co (LUV), Stifel Monetary Corp (SF), Teledyne Applied sciences Inc (TDY), Tesla Inc (TSLA), Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO), Journey + Leisure Co (TNL), United Leases Inc (URI), Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT), Viking Therapeutics Inc (VKTX), Westinghouse Air Brake Technol (WAB), Wyndham Motels & Resorts Inc (WH).
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