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Stock Market Live Feb 18: Sensex trims losses, down 45 points at 83,405, Nifty slips 45 points to 25,720

by Team BL
February 18, 2026
in Business
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BofA on Infosys

Preserve Purchase with TP of Rs 1840

A number of positives on positioning

Internet alternative could possibly be greater however path continues to be evolving

Enterprise AI isn’t plug and play

Income from AI-first choices stands at 5.5%, not too completely different from others which have disclosed the metric

Key danger with AI, as per firm, is much less about alternative and extra about technique and execution

Anthropic partnerships signify position of a providers firm in enterprise AI shift

UBS on Infosys

Preserve Purchase with TP of Rs 1870

Alternatives from AI to outweigh compression

AI potential quick increasing, however organisations not prepared

US$300-400bn alternative from AI to outweigh productivity-led compression

IT Service distributors have to construct capabilities by way of expertise, platforms / IP, partnerships and acquisitions

Will keep watch over Infosys’ progress on these fronts going forward

HSBC on Infosys

Purchase, TP Rs 1870

Infosys hosts AI Investor Day, sees USD300-400bn new AI service alternative by 2030

Lengthy relationships + enterprise context + accountability are key strengths of Infosys to be AI associate for its prospects

To handle deflationary impression in conventional providers, Infosys targets for pockets share positive factors from AI augmentation

CLSA on Infosys

O-P, TP Rs 1779

At its Investor AI Day, flagged its core strengths to make sure continued market share positive factors amid begin of latest tech cycle

It flagged essential knowledge factors and addressed key investor issues across the doubtlessly destructive impression of AI for IT service firms.

It talked about 5.5% of its revenues in 3QFY26 got here from GenAI (implying near 1.5% world market share) & general GenAI providers alternative to be round US$300bn-US$400bn by 2030. They consider enhance in quantity can be bigger than potential cannibalisation of current enterprise

It launched a hexagonal framework to method AI providers alternative.

JPM on Infosys

OW, TP Rs 2050

Analyst day takeaways

(1) AI is driving an enterprise tech pivot to construct over purchase that’s services-accretive

(2) a major alternative in clearing Tech debt dropped at the fore by AI transitions

(3) greenfield tech deployment is rather a lot simpler than “actual world” enterprise brownfield deployment.

Infosys additionally laid out its six-sided AI new providers alternative that’s already at 5.5% of revenues (3Q26), addressing a $300bn-400bn AI providers spend led by Course of AI and Agentic legacy modernization.

It is usually reimagining current providers with best-in-class AI fashions & instruments amplified by its distinctive enterprise context & high quality expertise

MS on Infosys

EW, TP Rs 1760

Infosys administration dismissed issues round alternative danger for Companies companies in present tech transition and showcased Infosys’ capabilities and readiness for adopting the identical together with related shopper case research.

It quantified new AI providers are already contributing 5.5% of income.

Jefferies on Infosys

Purchase, TP Rs 1880

At its AI Day, Infosys highlighted that IT providers will stay key to enterprise AI implementation.

Infosys has constructed its AI platform – Infosys Topaz Material – is collectively going to market with AI ecosystem companions & has devised a 2-pronged expertise technique not solely to seize new service demand (US $300-400bn by 2030) but additionally to reinforce its current service traces.

Consumer AI adoption is growing with new AI providers contributing 5.5% of revenues in 3QFY26.

Nuvama on Infosys

Purchase, TP Rs 1900

Analyst day Key takeaways

i) Legacy modernisation is a big alternative enabled by AI.

ii) Enterprise needs to construct app and gear internally reasonably than shopping for—IT firms will allow it.

iii) Agentic AI can be built-in inside Enterprise ecosystem with internally constructed Agent in addition to exterior brokers.

iv) AI income contributes 5.5% of income

View latest sharp correction in IT shares as overdone, as fears of disruption by Gen AI have been extremely exaggerated.

UBS on ITC

Purchase, TP reduce to Rs 395 from Rs 420

Distributor checks point out vary of imminent value hikes, is now arriving. ITC’s 84mm cigarettes (KSFT phase), is predicted to be priced at Rs 24 per stick (from Rs 17)

This phase has seen the steepest tax enhance.

Whereas on different excessive, 64mm is predicted to priced Rs 7 per stick (from Rs 5.9).

Whereas pricing of 69mm Goldflake (giant quantity driver, at the moment at Rs 9.5 per stick) is but to be identified, count on round Rs 12 to be its new value (given competing Marlboro is at Rs 11.5).

It’s clear that value hikes have been totally handed on in premium cigarettes, whereas it’s stored minimal in value delicate segments of 69mm and 64mm

This pricing method is more likely to preserve ITC’s quantity and EBIT impression to minimal.

GS on LG Electronics

Provoke Purchase, TP Rs 1750

Co well-placed to develop sooner than {industry} in close to to medium time period on account of

1) shifting earnings cohort combine and rising penetration resulting in sooner {industry} development in mid and premium merchandise;

2) LGEL’s constant observe document of innovation enabling it to maintain its premiumization traits;

3) LG Electronics Inc’s ‘International South’ technique, which ought to allow it to enhance exports whereas increasing its manufacturing in India.

Nevertheless, rising aggressive depth in an growing commodity value atmosphere ought to preserve margin growth potential restricted.

MS on Dabur

UW. TP Rs 400

Mohit Malhotra (at the moment Entire Time Director & CEO) has been redesignated to Entire Time Director & International CEO w.e.f. 17 February 2026

Herjit S. Bhalla has been appointed as CEO – India Enterprise w.e.f. 15 April 2026 or such different date as could also be mutually agreed

Mr. Bhalla brings greater than 25 years of expertise throughout gross sales, advertising and common administration roles.

HSBC on Paints Sector

Watch for the {industry} cycle to show could possibly be an extended one with potential structural issues

Restricted additional tailwinds from weak uncooked supplies costs and aggressive {industry} dynamics amid weak demand

Re-iterate Maintain on APNT and BRGR; valuations elevated for high-single digit EBITDA development over FY27e

Macquarie on Paints Sector

3Q noticed: 1) Slower gross sales development vs 2Q as weak Oct offset pick-up in Nov/Dec; 2) guarded outlook on demand; 3) stabilisation of aggressive pressures.

Reasonable tempo of restoration which count on to pan out in 2HCY26 & 3Q Ebitda miss drives cuts to EPS/ TP throughout board.

Demand uptick key for efficiency

APNT>KNPL>BRGR as see APNT witnessing decrease margin impression from Grasim’s aggressive actions.

HSBC on Aurobindo Pharma

Purchase, TP Raised to Rs 1415

Aurobindo obtained US FDA approval for Adquey (difamilast 1%), a non-steroid topical therapy for atopic dermatitis (AD)

Suppose Adquey has potential to turn out to be a USD250-300m model; Aurobindo wants to take a position for specialists gross sales hires

Advertising execution might be key for Adquey success in US

HSBC on Hindalco

Purchase, TP Rs 1210

View destructive inventory response to Novelis’s Oswego hearth and consolidated debt enhance are extreme

Total, whereas March could possibly be one other weak quarter at Novelis, internet debt ought to decline from 2HFY27

valuations at 5.7x FY27e/5.2x FY28e EV/EBITDA as engaging given 14% EPS CAGR over FY25-28e & nicely calibrated capex profile

Nomura on Maruti

Purchase, TP Rs 16118

eVitara launched at engaging BaaS pricing

Competitively priced to spice up EV penetration, however will not be worthwhile

Assume 12k/24k unit home volumes for the e Vitara and its Toyota variant, mixed over FY26F/FY27F

This might suggest some upside if the outright buy value is ~INR1.6mn onwards, however may drag margins.

MOSL on Varun Drinks

Purchase, TP Rs 550

Amid an unprecedented aggressive atmosphere in CY25, marked by aggressive industry-wide discounting and antagonistic climate circumstances, VBL adopted a disciplined and differentiated technique anchored in pack optimization and surgical market interventions

Trying forward, strategic innovation, capability investments, and premiumization initiatives place VBL to ship double-digit home quantity development in CY26, with margins anticipated to stabilize close to present ranges regardless of near-term realization pressures.

Count on a CAGR of 13%/13%/16% in income/EBITDA/PAT over CY25-27

Jefferies on Kfin Tech

Purchase, TP Rs 1350

Q3 EBITDA was 7% above JEFe led by higher efficiency in Worldwide & Issuer Options companies.

PAT, adjusting for one-time labor code impression of c.Rs86mn, was 11% forward

Count on Worldwide Enterprise to develop at 25% CAGR over subsequent 3 years, accounting for 20%/15% of income/EBITDA by FY30e.

Regardless of alternative, reverse SOTP suggests traders are usually not giving any worth to Worldwide Enterprise

Improve FY26-28 EPS by 2-5%.

Goldman Sachs on India aerospace & defence

Q3 FY26 earnings beat consensus estimates by roughly 11% on common (excluding BDL and PTC). 

Most firms delivered round 20% year-on-year EPS development; margins improved broadly. 

Order books stay sturdy, though execution challenges persist for just a few firms. 

Earnings momentum is predicted to remain sturdy. 

Tailwinds come from a beneficial defence funds and a pointy rise in Awards of Necessity (AoNs). 

Most popular concepts: Photo voltaic Industries and PTC Industries. 

Amongst DPSUs, BEL stays a Purchase.

Morgan Stanley on Titan

Maintains Obese score with a raised goal value of ₹4,529 (beforehand ₹4,062). 

Home jewelry development outlook has been raised; margin assumptions have been tweaked. 

FY26 income, EBITDA, and PAT estimates elevated by 12%, 5%, and 6% respectively. 

FY27–28 EPS estimates raised by 2–3%. 

Goal value enhance pushed by larger near-term earnings expectations and a 3-month mannequin roll-forward. 

Bull, base, and bear case values raised by 9–12%.

Citi on India fairness technique

BSE 100 EBITDA/PAT grew ~12% year-on-year in Q3, forward of estimates. 

Earnings efficiency broadly in step with the long-term development pattern. 

Financials, shopper, and industrials sectors offset the drag from IT providers. 

Danger-reward seems cheap following EM underperformance; valuations are truthful. 

Commerce offers might scale back export-related uncertainty. 

Key dangers embrace IT slowdown, wage moderation, and circulate volatility. 

Citi’s December 2026 Nifty goal: 28,500.

Citi on India oil & gasoline

Provoke pair commerce: Obese GAIL / Underweight ONGC. 

ONGC has underperformed GAIL by ~21% over the past 3 months. 

ONGC’s valuation appears unattractive amid development and margin dangers. 

The non permanent Henry Hub spike and tariff issues are anticipated to reverse. 

ONGC exhibits muted manufacturing development in comparison with steerage and has restricted dividend yield help. 

Potential OFS overhang stays a priority. 

GAIL’s near-term outlook is bettering after latest headwinds. 

Transmission and LPG margins anticipated to enhance in This fall; seasonal summer time demand and ONGC quantity restoration ought to help GAIL.

Jefferies India technique (Mahesh Nandurdikar)

Q3 confirmed a powerful rebound in EPS development. 

December quarter earnings efficiency was good, with pre-exceptional earnings seeing an 8-quarter excessive YoY development of 18% and a small EPS improve. 

Sequential enhancements in development had been seen in most sectors. 

Income development for home staples additionally recovered to an 11-quarter excessive of 16%. 

MSCI India earnings development for FY26 is now estimated at 10%. 

Enchancment in worker value development to 10% can also be encouraging.

JPMorgan on metals

Indian metallic shares have traded uneven over the past month. 

Shares reacted to earnings commentary, geo-economic developments, and commodity value actions. 

Within the near-to-medium time period, metal value outlook stays supportive. 

The continued rally in metal costs seems pushed by provide tightness, restocking, and coking coal value will increase reasonably than important demand enchancment. 

Indian metal costs have some extra room to run till the seasonally sturdy interval. 

Aluminium shares declined in tandem with falling commodity costs. 

Hindalco corrected sharply on debt issues following the Novelis disruption. 

Hindalco’s present inventory value nonetheless implies a beneficial ~$3,075–3,100/t LME aluminium value. 

High choose is Tata Metal; least most popular shares are NMDC and Coal India.

Bernstein on fast commerce

QC webinar takeaways: Aggressive depth stays excessive throughout leaders, e-commerce, and retail. 

Profitable differentiation is shifting from value to catalog and comfort. 

Non-grocery classes are gaining traction with larger AOVs and higher unit economics. 

Execution high quality, forecasting, SKU combine, and supply precision stay key. 

Tier-2 cities are the subsequent battleground; cracking the subsequent 100 cities is essential for scale. 

FMCG, regional, and D2C manufacturers are more and more utilizing fast commerce as a development engine. 

Supply capability and rider availability are key constraints at peak demand.



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