By Jihoon Lee
SEOUL (Reuters) – South Korea’s export development is anticipated to have slowed for a fourth straight month in November and to be the weakest in 14 months on slowing demand in the US amid tariff coverage uncertainty, a Reuters ballot confirmed on Thursday.
Outbound shipments from Asia’s fourth-largest financial system are forecast to have risen 2.8% in November from a 12 months earlier, after a achieve of 4.6% in October, in response to a median of 14 economists within the survey.
That might be the 14th straight month of annual export development however the weakest year-on-year rise for the sequence, which had been led by robust demand in the US, particularly for semiconductors utilized in synthetic intelligence chipsets.
“Non-semiconductor exports are slowing, together with auto gross sales to the US, and IT demand can be anticipated weaken step by step,” mentioned Chun Kyu-yeon, an economist at Hana Securities.
“Uncertainty of the second Trump presidency is setting an setting unfavourable to home manufacturing corporations,” Chun mentioned.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on Monday pledged to impose large tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, that are anticipated to have a destructive influence on South Korean corporations as properly.
Within the first 20 days of this month, exports rose 5.8%, as chip gross sales jumped, however vehicles fell. Shipments to the US fell 2.5% and had been set for the primary decline since July 2023, whereas these to China rose 3.5%.
South Korea, the primary main exporting financial system to report commerce figures every month, is scheduled to launch month-to-month information for November on Sunday, Dec. 1, at 9 a.m. (0000 GMT).
“The energy of the semiconductor sector shall be overwhelmed by the weak point seen in different sectors,” mentioned Oh Suk-tae, an economist at Societe Generale (OTC:).
“Weak exports will doubtless be unwelcome information for the expansion outlook, however one can nonetheless take some consolation from the semiconductors rebound,” Oh mentioned.
Lee Seung-hoon, economist at Meritz Securities, mentioned: “A restoration in U.S. manufacturing exercise will change into an increasing number of vital for broader energy throughout South Korea’s export sectors.”
The survey additionally forecast imports to have risen 0.4% in November, after rising 1.7% in October.
The survey’s median estimate of this month’s commerce steadiness got here in at a surplus of $5.15 billion, wider than $3.15 billion within the prior month.
