As common, Battle Mapper has the most effective visualizations of every day battlefield modifications:
Popasna is on excessive floor, giving Russia an excellent seen of that freeway working southwest of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Quickly, that freeway is very more likely to be reduce. Professional-Russia twitter is overjoyed, whereas many pro-Ukraine individuals are despondent.
Everybody wants to relax.
First, why does anybody assumes Russia has the power to shut that circle, all 30 miles of it? Russian is fated the identical issues it has suffered in every single place else—logistical difficulties compounded by flanks uncovered to Ukrainian ambushes and artillery. If Mariupol might survive practically three months of siege, Severodonetsk and Lysychansk can actually survive for an prolonged period of time with Ukrainian forces simply on the opposite facet of a shaky Russian salient.
That’s all assuming Ukraine decides to carry these two cities, and particularly, Severodonetsk, on the fallacious (Russian-facing) facet of the Donets. As of now, it appear clear Ukraine is comfortable to let its defenders proceed bleeding Russia dry whereas its reserves get skilled and outfitted out west.
However say the worst case occurs, and people two cities fall … so what? Tactically, hurray for Russia. They completed one thing. However strategically? There’s over 5,000 sq. miles of Ukrainian-held territory within the Donbas area. Capturing 300-500 sq. miles of that hardly strikes the needly, holding the rubble of two cities that Ukraine doesn’t want. In the meantime, Slovyansk and Kramatorsk current imposing roadblocks to any additional Russian advances, neither on the far finish of an uncovered salient like Severodonetsk.
At finest, Russia will seize a tiny slice of the Donbas area it so desperately needs.
Henry Schlottman is an Open Supply Intelligence (OSINT) savant, meticulously monitoring Russian items throughout the map. He’s bought an excellent learn on the present scenario within the Popasna salient:
We mentioned yesterday why the BTG was a ineffective designation, with one Russian’s account claiming his “infantry firm” was 13 troopers … as an alternative of the 120-160 troopers it ought to even have. So sure, trying to go off 100 unwounded males as a “BTG” appears par for the course. That mentioned, there is actual fight power arriving to this entrance.
One other convoy here. So Russia is actually attempting to take advantage of the breach. Their drawback, except for their typical logistical challenges, is their continued lack of ability to really mass forces.
Typical formulation for attacker-to-defender ratios is 3-1 to 5-1. Parity gained’t do it, not with new artillery speeding into the realm. The extra artillery floods in, the extra movies we’ll get like this, of a smashed Russian convoy supporting the Russian push geolocated 4 kilometers straight north of Popasna. No Russian is protected on this salient.
Quite than panic over Russian beneficial properties on this space, simply assume Severodonetsk and Lysychansk fall. Contemplate them gone, off the board. Then ask your self, what did that get Russia? The reply is really not a lot. And hey, there’s a extremely good likelihood Russia by no means will get them anyway! We’ve seen them screw up too many occasions to imagine that they’re lastly getting their shit collectively.
In the meantime, this paragraph within the Might 19 Washington Put up has spawned quite a lot of hypothesis.
The invoice, handed on an 86-to-11 vote Thursday, offers a mixed $20 billion in army support that’s anticipated to finance the switch of superior weapons methods, corresponding to Patriot antiaircraft missiles and long-range artillery.
There was no credible supply saying Ukraine is getting Patriot missiles, nor long-range artillery (learn: MLRS). In Pentagon briefings, the solutions are all the time alongside the traces of “we’re consistently reassessing Ukraine’s wants…” As all the time, always remember the logistics. Folks maintain saying stuff like “Ukraine can be taught to fireside it rapidly!” and that’s true. The preliminary coaching to shoot a Patriot is 13 weeks, however that’s simply the beginning. Troopers then head to their unit the place they’re skilled by NCOs with years of expertise. None of that exists in Ukraine. Even worse, do not forget that coaching to keep the Patriot air protection system is 53 weeks. That is simply the fundamental upkeep coaching. Once more, troopers be taught extra at their items working with skilled NCOs.
There’s a resolution—use army contractors to carry out upkeep. Retired troopers from nations who’ve operated that system might head to Ukraine to carry out all wanted upkeep (assuming all the plain dangers of working in a fight zone), and act as NCOs to Ukrainians studying the craft. Patriot air defenses can be a particular improve to Ukraine’s defenses if these upkeep points will be managed.
Anti-ship missiles are additionally rumored to be on the way in which, theoretically to interrupt the Russian blockade. Nevertheless, Russian submarines would pose a menace, as would mines and plane. “Breaking the blockade” might merely be a public pretense for what the US would actually get—the destruction of a big a part of Russia’s naval energy. That might be properly definitely worth the funding. And something that raises Russia’s price of warfare will get us nearer to the day they sue for peace.
As for plane, speak has died down lately. However given Russia’s difficulties fielding a useful air power, and Ukraine’s rising use of its personal (plenty of movies this final week), it truly is time to rethink sending F-16s and A-10s to Ukraine. Once more, upkeep must be supplied by contractors, however it’s undoubtedly theoretically doable.
To shut the loop, observe that we will have this dialogue of superior weapons methods, particularly as a result of Ukraine has defended so properly in Severodonetsk and Mariupol and all alongside this entrance. Russia creeps alongside, gaining mere single-digit kilometers per day, all of the whereas a whole new military is being skilled and outfitted out west.
