Although the Russians have made clear that they’re in an uncompromising temper about Ukraine, the US has been so thick about getting the message that the Russians have resorted to utilizing a two by 4. The Monetary Occasions and Wall Road Journal have as their lead tales that the Russian have rejected the 30 day ceasefire scheme cooked up in Jeddah between the US and Ukraine as the way in which to get peace negotiations rolling. Thoughts you, this unofficial however actually not so response could also be an indication that Russia acknowledges that it’s coping with an much more “gang that may’t shoot straight” bunch than the fabulously light-weight Tony Blinken and Jake Sullivan and doesn’t see a lot level in coddling them. Extra on that angle in the end.
Here’s what the much-broadcast “rejection” amounted to. The interviewee, Yuri Ushakov, is an aide to Putin and an adviser on the Ukraine negotiations. As you possibly can see, he’s senior sufficient to be an interlocutor to Mike Waltz:
Russia says it is not all in favour of a brief ceasefire however a everlasting, long-term peaceable settlement with Ukraine. Ideas? pic.twitter.com/0Haf6xyHxM
— Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) March 13, 2025
Ushakov advised the RT reporter that he advised Waltz that the Russian place was no ceasefire. When he requested if his assertion amounted to a Russian rejection, he demurred and mentioned the 2 presidents can be speaking. However Ushakov may have simply deflected the query had he needed to or extra importantly, had the Kremlin needed to.
An identical fast-out-of-the-box response didn’t get as a lot play within the Western press:
⚡️ Momentary ceasefire is ‘completely unacceptable’ — Member of Russian Parliament’s Protection Committee Viktor Sobolev
In a private assertion, Sobolev says that such a truce would solely ‘play into the arms of Ukrainian fascists’, permitting them to ‘regroup and rearm’ https://t.co/NBTbpbNoaD pic.twitter.com/7BXYOPVMdj
— RT (@RT_com) March 11, 2025
Discover Putin shortly after the US-Ukraine scheme was introduced donned army fatigues throughout a go to to Kursk. Most readers know that Ukraine invaded Kursk, a Russian oblast, however didn’t get very far, and have been throwing males and materials into Kursk as Russia has stored chewing away at their place. Arduous-core army varieties have been upset that Russia didn’t dispatch the Kursk operation shortly, however I can see the logic of bleeding the Ukrainians there. Protecting a presence in Kursk grew to become important to Ukraine preserving appearances that it may sustain the battle in opposition to Russia, in order that they stored losing troopers and weapons to carry a strategically unimportant place.
Putin’s change in apparel appears out of proportion to merely commemorating the upcoming success of the clearing-Kursk operation (readers: did he ever go well with up throughout the Chechen struggle?). So I put this within the class of yet-another over-the-top message to the very thick People. Some People took it that method:
🇷🇺 Putin in a army uniform?
❌ Guess he didn’t like the thought of a brief ceasefire.
🇺🇦 UKRAINE IS FUCKED! pic.twitter.com/izyVLcueUN
— Jackson Hinkle 🇺🇸 (@jacksonhinklle) March 12, 2025
Reader Security First described the important thing factors Putin made :
Putin, very, very uncharacteristically, donned a army discipline uniform, rolled right down to the regional HQ in Kursk (Gerasimov was already there), and made a 5-minute on-camera assertion, one of many two salient factors of which is that he “strongly prompt” the army considers establishing a buffer zone round Russian borders after ending clearing out the Kursk area. If that isn’t a sign to the People about any ceasefires, I have no idea what’s…
His second salient level, by the way in which, was to emphasize that any Ukrainians captured within the Kursk area weren’t really POWs, however somewhat “terrorists”, i.e. individuals who’ve violated Russia’s legal anti-terrorism statutes.
Let’s return to Ushakov’s remarks. As indicated yesterday, I used to be extremely assured the Russians wouldn’t entertain the US-Ukraine scheme, however I had assumed they’d undergo the diplomatic motions, of no less than having a what I known as a tea and cookies chat, and but once more restating Russia’s situations earlier than talks may start. As readers identified in feedback, Russia may even have gone for slow-walking to get expectations down: “We agreed in Riyadh that we would have liked to get the diplomatic equipment on either side again in operation earlier than we are able to entertain any proposal.”
So why a speedy and really public rebuff? One chance is that it was essential to reassure the Russian public that Putin was not going all wobbly in response to a US overtures, significantly after the essential milestone of the Ukraine rout in Kursk.
However I can see no less than two different motives. Ushakov identified that Putin and Trump will probably be speaking. Getting the message out quick that the ceasefire was na ga occur would recalibrate Trump’s expectations for what he may accomplish in that discuss. The choice, that Trump was all pumped up on the mistaken perception that Putin would comply with the ceasefire, maybe after wrangling some concessions from Trump, may lead to an disagreeable dialog.
One other motive is perhaps to discourage the US from trying to have interaction in diplomacy through press launch. Ushakov made his comment earlier than Trump negotiator Steve Witkoff landed in Russia. In a latest discuss on Nima’s Dialogue Works, John Helmer argued that Witkoff’s job was to speak enterprise. I’m doubtful. Witkoff appears to be Trump’s favourite negotiator. He dispatched Witkoff to deal with a diplomatic matter, that of browbeating Netanyahu into accepting a ceasefire. If Witkoff was certainly touring to Moscow to (together with different issues) to attempt to transfer the peace talks ahead, he would discover it embarrassing to have a part of his agenda undercut earlier than he landed on Russian TV.
The Monetary Occasions write-up of the Ushakov remarks and different developments consists of:
Russia’s rejection of the US proposal aligned with Putin’s hardline stance forward of high-level talks afterward Thursday in Moscow, the place Steve Witkoff, US President Donald Trump’s particular envoy to the Center East, has landed…
Ushakov mentioned Witkoff, who spoke to Putin final month because the US started extraordinary makes an attempt at a rapprochement with Russia, wouldn’t be the White Home’s foremost envoy to Moscow.
The Russian adviser mentioned Washington and Moscow had agreed that any future contacts can be “of a closed nature” and declined to call the envoy.
It is also that the Russian facet is even getting pissed and having to work to keep up its well-known froideur. John Helmer, in the identical discuss with Nima, emphatically made the identical level we did, that the US was siding with and backing Ukraine regardless of attempting to faux it was going to be a good dealer. He picked up that it included a requirement based mostly on ia debunked Ukraine propaganda declare: “…. return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian kids.” He added that the US-Ukraine Joint Assertion had all of it backwards, in setting the target as “negotiations towards an everlasting peace that gives for Ukraine’s long-term safety”. Putin has been speaking for the reason that 2007 Munich Safety Convention in regards to the West’s menace to Russian safety, and the ensuing want for a brand new European safety structure. That is but extra proof that the US pays no heed to Russian phrases or pursuits.
In his discuss yesterday, Alexander Mercouris learn the Joint Assertion as indicating that the US and Ukraine would negotiate along with Russia. I don’t infer that, but when Mercouris has this proper, this is able to be one other show-stopper. The Ukrainians don’t need peace. Or perhaps this is able to not be so unhealthy from the Russian vantage. I may see the Russians maneuvering with the Ukrainians to thwart any ahead motion.
This raises a ultimate huge concern: this can be very laborious to barter with individuals who don’t know what they’re doing, which is the Trump staff and the Ukrainians in spades (keep in mind that the Zelensky authorities consists closely of members of his outdated manufacturing staff, which is why they’re so good at PR and stunts and never a lot else). I’ve been in that place often, and it is extremely laborious to steer functionally incompetent folks (as in they could be expert at different issues, however not the duty at hand), since it is advisable take cost with out wanting like you have got executed so. I can’t think about both the Trump or Ukraine staff to be tractable.
In the intervening time, the Europeans try to escalate. From Axios:
Polish President Andrzej Duda has known as on the U.S. to maneuver a few of its nuclear arsenal to Polish territory to discourage potential future Russian aggression…
Duda advised the Monetary Occasions in an interview printed Thursday that the U.S. may transfer nuclear weapons saved in Western Europe or the U.S. to Poland, and that he’d mentioned the thought with U.S. envoy to Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg.
Scholz is on his method out, however continues to be reaffirming the European dedication to forestall an finish to the struggle, since on present trajectories, it will likely be on Russian phrases:
Scholz mentioned that Russia is striving to demilitarize Ukraine, however that this can’t be allowed.
He confused {that a} sturdy military is “an important assure of the nation’s safety.” pic.twitter.com/RSwPzaI0Mg— Sprinter Observer (@SprinterObserve) March 13, 2025
So regardless of the US and its mouthpieces saying the ball was in Russia’s court docket, it’s now again on the US facet of the web. We’ll see what occurs subsequent.
