Two messages landed in my inbox lately that requested about the identical situation from completely different angles.
Stan B. wrote: “I simply learn your article concerning the development of AI. Fascinating. However I’m much more enthusiastic about one other know-how that appears to be creating alongside AI. Quantum computing. What does the long run appear like when these two applied sciences mature? Higher but, what does it appear like when they’re mixed?”
Then Jeff M. adopted with the darker model of the identical query: “Can’t assist however surprise if these brokers, within the flawed palms, can crack crypto safety, protection work, and so forth. In that case, how will we stop this?”
Thanks, Stan and Jeff. Your emails jogged my memory that I wished to revisit a subject I took a deep dive into final yr…
Q-Day.
As a result of primarily based on what we’ve seen over the past seven months, I believe it may very well be coming lots sooner than most individuals anticipated.
We’re In Stage One
Q-Day is a time period for the second {that a} quantum laptop turns into highly effective sufficient to interrupt the public-key cryptography that protects bitcoin wallets, financial institution logins, navy communications and an enormous chunk of the fashionable web.
In July of final yr, I laid out why that “sometime” downside can be a “we now have to begin making ready now” downside. And I’m beginning to consider that the period of time we now have to organize is getting shorter.
Right here’s why.
When individuals hear Q-Day, they consider a single dramatic occasion. Somebody flips a change and the world’s encryption collapses in a single day.
At the very least, that’s how it might play out in a film.
However that’s not how this risk is more likely to play out in actual life. As an alternative, it’s sure to reach in phases.
And stage one is already right here.
I name the “harvest-now, decrypt-later” stage. You see, our adversaries are already intercepting encrypted site visitors at present. They usually’re storing it to attend for the day that they will unlock it with quantum know-how.
That’s why safety groups aren’t ready for a quantum breakthrough earlier than they act. They’re already specializing in essentially the most weak piece of the system.
If you go to an internet site, your browser and that web site carry out a fast alternate on the very starting of the connection. Consider it as agreeing on a secret code earlier than a dialog begins. That quick alternate is what units up the encryption that protects every thing that follows.
If a strong quantum laptop can break that preliminary alternate, it may possibly unlock the entire session.
So corporations are upgrading that first step now.
Cloudflare, which sits in entrance of an enormous portion of the web’s site visitors, has already rolled out what’s known as “hybrid” encryption. In easy phrases, meaning it makes use of at present’s classical cryptography and new quantum-resistant math collectively. Even when one fails sooner or later, the opposite nonetheless protects the connection.
Cloudflare is already deploying this hybrid encryption throughout stay web site visitors at a worldwide scale.
And that brings us to stage two: adoption.
As quantum-resistant encryption turns into the default setting in software program that folks already use, we’ll have an extra layer of safety in opposition to the potential hurt of Q-Day.
That shift is going on sooner than most individuals notice.
By early December 2025, Cloudflare stated the share of human-generated internet site visitors it sees that’s post-quantum encrypted reached 52%, up from 29% firstly of 2025.
And it’s not simply browsers and internet servers. In September 2025, GitHub began upgrading the safety behind the scenes.
GitHub is the place a lot of the world’s software program is constructed. When software program builders hook up with GitHub to add or replace code, they use a safe channel.
GitHub has begun switching that channel to new, quantum-resistant encryption.
The identical shift is going on in OpenSSH, one of the extensively used safety instruments on the web. New variations now default to quantum-resistant encryption, and future variations will actively warn customers in the event that they aren’t utilizing it.
So the web is already behaving just like the quantum risk is actual. And the instruments that construct and preserve trendy software program are already altering the locks.
However is Q-Day actually simply across the nook? How shut are we to actually highly effective, code-breaking quantum machines?
Not essentially.
The bottleneck continues to be reliability. Quantum bits, or qubits, are extraordinarily fragile. They lose their quantum state rapidly and make errors consistently.
That’s why nobody is cracking bitcoin’s encryption at present. It’s not as a result of researchers don’t know the mathematics. It’s as a result of at present’s quantum machines can’t run lengthy, advanced calculations with out falling aside.
So the race to realize code-breaking quantum computer systems isn’t nearly including extra qubits.
It’s about fixing errors.
The breakthrough everyone seems to be chasing is one thing known as “fault tolerance.” Meaning constructing methods that may detect and proper errors quick sufficient to maintain a computation steady.
And we are getting nearer to fixing this downside.
In October 2025, IBM demonstrated a quantum error-correction system working in actual time on standard chips that monitor and stabilize qubits. IBM positioned this as a key step towards constructing a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum laptop.
That’s excellent news for a bunch of industries that may profit as quantum machines grow to be extra steady.
Nevertheless it additionally means the timeline to Q-Day simply obtained shorter.
Right here’s My Take
So the place does this depart Stan’s optimistic query and Jeff’s involved one?
The factor is, AI and quantum don’t have to merge into some sci-fi superweapon to create danger. AI already makes cyberattacks sooner and extra automated, whereas quantum computing threatens the mathematics that protects our information.
But when AI brokers velocity up assaults whereas quantum weakens encryption, the stakes rise actually quick.
So how will we stop this?
It comes all the way down to migration.
The U.S. requirements physique, NIST, has already finalized new quantum-resistant encryption requirements. In plain phrases, they’ve printed the substitute locks. They’ve even chosen backup choices primarily based on completely different math, simply in case one strategy fails.
Now the job is to swap the locks earlier than somebody builds a greater lock-pick.
As a result of Q-Day isn’t a single date on a calendar. It’s a course of that’s already underway.
And given how briskly web infrastructure is adopting quantum-resistant encryption, and the way steadily {hardware} is bettering, I consider essentially the most real looking Q-Day timelines are transferring nearer, not farther away.
Which suggests the subsequent 5 years are probably the window that issues most.
Regards,
Ian King
Chief Strategist, Banyan Hill Publishing
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