Russian is now decided to ruthlessly crush Ukrainian resistance it doesn’t matter what the price to his nation and the Ukrainians preventing Russian forces are “all going to die,” says a former CIA station chief in Moscow.
In an interview on the Yahoo Information “” podcast, Daniel Hoffman — for years, one of many CIA’s prime specialists on Russia — mentioned the Russian president is “not the Vladimir Putin I used to be monitoring again within the day on the CIA. He is a unique man.” He says that Putin has dug himself into such a deep gap with the Ukraine invasion that he now now not believes he has any alternative however to degree the nation.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky , turning into “the nice twenty first century communicator” in resisting Putin’s invasion, he mentioned. However, ultimately, “I feel Ukraine’s darkest days are forward of them, tragically,” Hoffman mentioned. “So, Vladimir Putin, he’ll burn down Ukraine’s home.”
What follows is an edited transcript of Hoffman’s dialog with Michael Isikoff, chief investigative correspondent for Yahoo Information, Daniel Klaidman, Yahoo Information Editor in Chief, and Victoria Bassetti, a fellow with the Brennan Heart for Justice.
Isikoff: As we sit right here in the present day, the studies are of this Russian navy convoy, 40 miles lengthy, headed proper to Kyiv. What do you anticipate over the subsequent 24 to 48 hours from the Russians? How far is Vladimir Putin going to go?
I feel Ukraine’s darkest days are forward of them, tragically. I’ll let you know that this is not the Vladimir Putin I used to be monitoring again within the day at CIA. He is a unique man. He gained loads of wars — a brutal conflict in Chechnya. He invaded Georgia in 2008, however did not attempt to take Tbilisi. He invaded Ukraine in ’14 and annexed Crimea, and invaded the Donbas, and form of settled on a frozen battle there.
All these issues have been, Vladimir Putin taking part in chess with restricted however achievable targets. This one Vladimir Putin has altered his threat calculus. He is taking part in poker the place he won’t have the strongest hand. However I’m deeply fearful we will see one thing like Grozny or Aleppo the place Russia goes scorched earth, as a result of they’ve failed, completely failed, up to now.
Klaidman: We have seen this unbelievable resistance from the Ukrainians, very inspiring. How does [Putin] cope with that? And, in the end, is he going to attempt to simply break their spirit by going after civilians?
Russia has a unique view of collateral harm, they usually have a unique view of casualties for their very own. In our guidelines of engagement within the U.S., we do one of the best we probably can to not strike civilian targets. For the Russians, simply have a look at the battle of Stalingrad. That is form of the best way Vladimir Putin sees the world. Take into consideration the poisoning of [Russian dissident Alexander] Litvinenko with radioactive polonium-210. He created a human soiled bomb. There simply is an “ends justify no matter means you wish to use.” That is form of the best way that they do issues.
And I am going to simply let you know a fast story., I requested as soon as a very long time in the past a Russian intelligence officer, I requested him, “What’s it about your neighbors and your techniques for coping with them?” And he mentioned to me, “Hear, let’s simply say you’ve gotten a very nice home, and I do not. My home is a crappy home. I am simply gonna go burn yours down. That is form of the best way we expect.”
So Vladimir Putin, he’ll burn down Ukraine’s home, and he looks like he cannot exist on this planet if Ukraine is striving for freedom, liberty, and democracy and financial hyperlinks to the West. That was the place they have been headed, and Vladimir Putin cannot let that occur. … And that is why I get again to the chance calculus for Vladimir Putin. He may have in all probability gotten autonomy for Donbas. He may’ve in all probability eradicated a bunch of sanctions, and he would possibly’ve been in a position to extract different concessions from us. … There was no means per week in the past that France and Germany have been going to confess Ukraine [to NATO.]
And now, because of Zelensky, who’s a rare chief, it is NATO becoming a member of Ukraine in a struggle for freedom. Standing up for what issues. It is like Zelensky jolted Western democracies out of a post-Chilly Warfare slumber, and right here they’re, taking over a brutal dictator who’s an anathema to every thing that we consider in. That is the story for me.
Bassetti: So if Putin is now not the person that you have been finding out for almost all of your profession, how are Western states in the present day adapting to this new understanding?
I can let you know, the primary recurring query that President Biden is asking the intelligence neighborhood is “give me the management profile on Vladimir Putin. No, no, no, no, no. Not the one from February ’22. I would like the one from in the present day.” As a result of he isn’t the identical man. There are all types of rumors about no matter could be unsuitable with him medically. Sen. Marco Rubio mentioned that he had neuropsychological points. Rubio sits on a Senate intel committee, would not go into element about sources and strategies, would not go into additional element about precisely what meaning. However that is a vital assertion that he made. … And so what we would see are the Russian elites altering their evaluation of Vladimir Putin. These elites who’re watching him and considering, “Holy s***, we thought this was brinkmanship. And he is taken us to a conflict that’s destroying our financial system.”
Isikoff: You say he isn’t the man you tracked for a few years. And but, lots of the examples you cited about Putin’s brutality have been a matter of public report for many years — the horrific leveling of Chechnya, the polonium poisoning of Litvinenko. That was 2006. Then the invasion of Georgia was 2008. And as you look again, did we not do sufficient to discourage him a lot a lot earlier?
So you’ve gotten a great lengthy listing there. I am going to add just a few extra. Downing a Malaysian airliner. Interfering in our elections. And European elections. He has gotten away with loads. And it is telling that after — I keep in mind this extraordinarily effectively — after Russia invaded Georgia, and what is the coverage of the Obama administration? Reset. Excuse me, however on the time, I used to be considering, like, “What the f***, reset? Are you kidding me? With this man, after what he simply did?”
Isikoff: One fast observe up on U.S. coverage over time. In 1991, Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. And the USA and Western allies went to conflict to expel him. Now, we have now Vladimir Putin invading Ukraine, and President Biden has taken using U.S. troops off the desk. How do you sq. the best way we responded to Saddam Hussein in 1991, with how we’re responding to Vladimir Putin in 2022?
I am glad you requested that, as a result of I’ve thought a lot about it. I had already begun serving within the authorities when Saddam invaded Kuwait. And President George Herbert Walker Bush constructed a world coalition. And we deployed in protection of Saudi Arabia, after which launched that invasion. Nevertheless it was a world coalition. And we took the lead. … The distinction clearly is that Russia has nuclear weapons.
And what this administration is making an attempt to do is thread the needle. … So we will attempt to present Ukraine with the navy and humanitarian help that they want. We will use a number of financial strain on Russia. However direct, kinetic battle? No. … And so I feel, If it have been me, I might have recommended that President Biden not rule something out. I do not know why he mentioned we aren’t going to place troops there. You need not inform the enemy what we’re doing or what we’re eager about. He ought to’ve mentioned, “Look, every thing’s on the desk.”
And the opposite factor I might simply say is, in distinction to 1990-1991, the man who’s constructed the coalition? It is Zelensky. … What has introduced us all collectively has been this Ukrainian freedom fighter, a Jewish comic is kicking the s*** out of Vladimir Putin. He’s a twenty first century chief who understands social media and understands methods to get the message out to his personal individuals and to get the form of help that he wants internationally. If you happen to take heed to his speech in the present day to the European Parliament, I imply, simply extraordinary capability that he has to speak. He’s the nice twenty first century communicator. … He is obtained the world — at the very least these of us within the West who consider in freedom, liberty and democracy — rising up in help of these sacred ideas, enshrined in our Structure’s Invoice of Rights, on the Ukrainian battlefield.
Bassetti: So, Dan, if you have been within the intelligence neighborhood, you have been paid to know the leaders of rival nations, together with Putin. I do know that you could’t be inside his head, however you need to have theories as to why he has advanced the best way he has. I imply, you understand, from being this calculated, calculating, crafty, one that is aware of the place the bounds are, to what he is doing now. What’s your concept?
So my concept is he is a man who likes to mission power. He is a man who likes to journey his horses half bare and do judo throws and appear like a tricky man. However time is just not on Russia’s facet, and he is weaker earlier than he attacked Ukraine. He was weaker than he was 5 years in the past, 10 years in the past. He’s haunted by the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, the Arab Spring, neighbors which can be affluent, NATO members just like the Baltic states which can be affluent economically. And he is haunted by the truth that his personal nation, women and men are extraordinarily disenchanted together with his management. And, so he sees this risk from Ukraine that’s going to blow proper again on his regime’s safety in a means that he simply cannot permit as a result of he is weaker. He cannot stand up to it anymore
You recognize, he killed Boris Nemtsov in 2015. … I imply, good man. I met him in Estonia. Good man. Why did he do this? Effectively, he did it ‘trigger he is gotta present he is probably the most ruthless man. You recognize, that is the rationale. Why did he attempt to kill Navalny with a banned chemical nerve agent that is obtained bread crumbs main all the best way again to the Kremlin? Identical factor with Skripal. Since you’ve gotta present that, “If you happen to mess with me, should you betray me, I’ll kill you, and I am gonna do it in a means that you just’re not gonna like.”
You recognize, he may have taken a hammer to Skripal’s head and killed him. Identical factor with Navalny. However they needed to present, Putin needed to present that he was nonetheless probably the most ruthless man. He is gotta present his personal, his personal guys, that he is that. And he is gotta present the inhabitants writ massive.
The very last thing I wanna let you know is he lived via the KGB coup in 1991 in opposition to Gorbachev when the inhabitants was up in arms in regards to the failures, the expectations have been rising with Glasnost and Perestroika. However then they realized, behind that, is zero.
And, so, the KGB noticed that Gorbachev simply wasn’t the man. You needed to be extra ruthless, not much less ruthless. They usually eliminated him. And that’s the reason Vladimir Putin in the end — perceiving himself as weaker than he is ever been, in my estimation — lashes out at Ukraine. And that was ramification for a way this ends, which is barely gonna worsen. And the last word query is whether or not the Russian navy decides they’ve had sufficient committing conflict crimes they usually determine, “You recognize what? This Vladimir Putin man is gonna need to be thrown off to the facet, solid apart, take the blame for all of this. ‘We have been simply following orders, sir,'” and transfer on.
Bassetti: Is there any off ramp from this proper now? Except for what you simply described, which is both full devastation to Ukraine or an inside coup?
Vladimir Putin is tremendous near not having an off ramp. May he have one in the present day? He would possibly. However he is additionally obtained to know that even when he goes and chooses the diplomatic off ramp, his personal internal circle goes to say, “What the f*** did you simply do to our financial system and our standing on the planet? And also you made us look fairly unhealthy too.” After which the knives come out and he will get stabbed within the again and the face, and he is carried out.
Isikoff: You could have been a Fox Information contributor for various years now. I would prefer to know what goes via your thoughts if you hear any person like Tucker Carlson on Fox Information defending Vladimir Putin, saying, “He is by no means carried out something to you or me. Why ought to we help Ukraine over Russia?” Which is a message that’s resonating with some massive section of the Fox Information viewers.
I’ve by no means been on Tucker’s present, however I am going to go away my Fox Information colleagues out of it. I am going to simply say that, in all probability like everyone, once I watch the information and I watch a number of totally different applications. And I’m a devoted listener of the “Skullduggery” podcast, and there is issues that I agree with, and there are issues that I do not agree with. And on the finish of the day all I can do — and as I discovered this at CIA, too — all I can do is ship my evaluation with no predisposed ideological bias.
Isikoff: Let me simply ask it one other means, leaving apart your Fox Information colleagues. Are you involved that Russian propaganda is permeating the American political dialogue and we have now people on this nation who’re successfully — opposing U.S. coverage, supporting Russian insurance policies?
I feel there is a spectrum there. So, in our home scene, there’s a swath of individuals on this nation who say, “I am bored with the Iraq, Afghanistan wars. I need out.” Similar to the isolationism that we noticed within the ’20s and ’30s. … And that is a swath of our inhabitants [that] are vulnerable to the, “Hey, Ukraine’s distant. Why ought to we care about Ukraine? What does that matter?” What I all the time inform individuals is the lesson of the final century was that when we’re not concerned with the key problems with the world, then we pay the value.
Klaidman:Earlier than we wrap right here, I simply wish to return to Putin’s techniques in opposition to the Ukrainians. There was loads of speak about how he was going to ship in groups of saboteurs and assassins and both kidnap or assassinate Zelensky. That hasn’t occurred but.
Look, I feel that will have been a part of the plan to ship in mercenaries to conduct a “non-attributable decapitation strike” in opposition to Ukrainian authorities management. They’d’ve despatched them in, weeks, months earlier than the assault as a way to be there to conduct surveillance and mount these assaults. The truth that Zelensky continues to be alive means they have not been profitable. However I do not doubt that they are there. I do not doubt that the FSB is there. …I additionally assume Ukraine is aware of their neighbor. And they also’ve taken counter measures, and good on ’em for doing it.
Bassetti: I’ve a query for you. You mentioned there are actually darkish days forward for Ukraine. Now, how do you assess how lengthy they’re gonna be capable to maintain out?
They’re going to all die. They’re going to maintain out to the top, till they’re all useless.
The place are Russian forces attacking Ukraine? Take a look at this explainer from Yahoo Immersive to seek out out.
