Polymarket forecasts slim 35% probability of Solana ETF approval earlier than July 31

Key Takeaways

Polymarket forecasts a 35% likelihood of Solana ETF approval by July 31, 2025.
Fundamental financial institutions like VanEck and Grayscale proceed to pursue Solana ETF functions no matter regulatory challenges.

Prediction market platform Polymarket has lowered the probabilities of a Solana ETF approval sooner than July 31, reaching a low of 35%, from a peak of 76% recorded on December 8.

The decline follows a interval of heightened regulatory scrutiny and ongoing licensed challenges, along with the SEC’s classification of Solana (SOL) as a security in current lawsuits.

This designation has created additional complexity for aligning Solana-based merchandise with present regulatory frameworks.

Whatever the decreased likelihood, important financial institutions protect their pursuit of Solana ETF approvals.

VanEck, Grayscale, and 21Shares have energetic functions pending, with preliminary SEC decision deadlines approaching later this month.

VanEck’s Head of Evaluation Matthew Sigel signifies that current market odds underestimate the likelihood of approval, citing progress in bipartisan regulatory developments.

Preliminary optimism surrounding the appointment of Paul Atkins as SEC Chair and expectations of a crypto-friendly Trump administration has been tempered by newest delays in regulatory decision-making.