The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Thursday closed up +0.80%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +0.94%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.94%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) rose +0.75%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) rose +0.92%.
Inventory indexes rallied on Thursday, with the S&P 500 posting a 4-month excessive, the Dow Jones Industrials posting a 3-3/4 month excessive, and the Nasdaq 100 posting a brand new all-time excessive. Power in chip makers boosted the broader market. Shares additionally noticed help from Thursday’s information of stronger-than-expected preliminary claims, core capital items orders, and pending dwelling gross sales studies.
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Fairness costs primarily acquired help because the 10-year T-note yield fell to a two-month low on a Wall Avenue Journal report that President Trump might announce the substitute of Fed Chair Powell as early as September, an unusually early appointment. That bolstered expectations of a extra dovish-leaning Fed, following Mr. Trump’s criticism of Powell for holding rates of interest regular. As a result of Powell’s time period expires in Might 2026, saying a brand new Fed Chair far sooner than the normal 3-4 month transition interval may permit the chair-in-waiting to dovishly affect expectations concerning the seemingly path for rates of interest.
On the adverse facet for shares was Thursday’s information of an sudden downward revision to Q1 GDP. Additionally, the Might commerce deficit was wider than anticipated, a adverse issue for Q2 GDP.
US weekly preliminary unemployment claims fell -7,000 to 236,000, exhibiting a stronger labor market than expectations of 243,000. Nevertheless, weekly persevering with claims rose +37,000 to a 3-1/2 yr excessive of 1.974 million, above expectations of 1.950 million, signaling extra individuals are staying out of labor for longer.
US Q1 GDP was revised decrease to -0.5% (q/q annualized), weaker than expectations of no change at -0.2% as Q1 private consumption was revised downward to 0.5% from 1.2%. The Q1 core PCE worth index was revised larger to +3.5% (q/q annualized), stronger than expectations of no change at +3.4%.
US Might capital items new orders nondefense ex-aircraft rose +1.7% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m and the biggest enhance in 4 months.
The US Might commerce deficit of -$96.6 billion was wider than expectations of -$86.1 billion, a adverse issue for Q2 GDP.
US Might pending dwelling gross sales rose +1.8% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m.
Richmond Fed President Barkin stated he expects tariffs to place upward stress on costs, and with a lot nonetheless unsure, he favors ready for extra readability earlier than adjusting rates of interest.
San Francisco Fed President Daly stated she is seeing elevated proof that tariffs might not result in a big or sustained inflation surge, which helps her view that the Fed may start chopping rates of interest once more within the fall.
The markets this week will watch to see if the ceasefire holds between Israel and Iran. Additionally, any new tariff information or commerce offers will likely be scrutinized. Friday brings Might private spending (anticipated +0.1% m/m) and Might private earnings (anticipated +0.3% m/m). Additionally on Friday, the Might core PCE worth index, the Fed’s most well-liked worth gauge, is anticipated to rise by +0.1% m/m and +2.6% y/y. Lastly, Friday’s June College of Michigan US client sentiment index is anticipated to be revised decrease by -0.2 factors to 60.3.
Federal funds futures costs are discounting the probabilities at 21% for a -25 bp price reduce on the July 29-30 FOMC assembly.
Abroad inventory markets closed combined on Thursday. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.15%. China’s Shanghai Composite fell from a 6-1/4 month excessive and closed down -0.22%. Japan’s Nikkei Inventory 225 rallied to a 4-3/4 month excessive and closed up +1.65%.
Curiosity Charges
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) on Thursday rose by +12.5 ticks and posted a 2-month excessive. The ten-year T-note yield fell -5.1 bp to 4.240% and posted a brand new 2-month low.
T-note costs moved larger on a Wall Avenue Journal report that President Trump is contemplating naming the successor to Fed Chair Powell as early as September, properly earlier than his time period expires subsequent Might, making him a lame duck and spurring hypothesis that rates of interest may ultimately fall quicker than markets are presently pricing. T-notes additionally discovered help after Q1 GDP was revised decrease.
Limiting positive factors in T-notes was stronger-than-expected preliminary claims, core capital items orders, and pending dwelling gross sales studies. Additionally, the upward revision to the Q1 core PCE worth index was bearish for T-notes. As well as, hawkish feedback from Richmond Fed President Barkin weighed on T-notes when he stated he favors ready for extra readability earlier than adjusting rates of interest. Provide pressures had been adverse for T-notes because the Treasury auctioned $44 billion of 7-year T-notes.
European authorities bond yields ended combined. The ten-year German bund yield rose +0.4 bp to 2.569%. The ten-year UK gilt yield fell -0.9 bp to 4.472%.
The German Jun GfK client confidence index unexpectedly fell -0.3 to -20.3, weaker than expectations of a rise to -19.2.
Swaps are discounting the probabilities at 9% for a -25 bp price reduce by the ECB on the July 24 coverage assembly.
US Inventory Movers
Power in chip makers boosted know-how shares and the general market. Marvel Expertise (MRVL) rallied greater than +5% to steer gainers within the Nasdaq 100. Broadcom (AVGO) closed up greater than +2%. Qualcomm (QCOM), Intel (INTC), Analog Units (ADI), and KLA Corp (KLAC) all closed up greater than +1%.
Micron Expertise (MU) initially rallied after reporting stronger-than-expected Q3 EPS and giving an upbeat forecast for the present quarter, pushed by demand for synthetic intelligence tools. Nevertheless, Micron fell again and closed the day down about -1%.
Managed healthcare shares moved larger. Cigna Group (CI) closed up greater than +4%. CVS Well being (CVS) closed up greater than +2%. Common Well being Providers (UHS) and HCA Healthcare (HCA) closed up almost +1%.
Copper mining shares confirmed power, with COMEX copper costs posting a brand new 2-3/4 month excessive and shutting up +2.55%. Southern Copper (SCCO) closed up greater than +7%, Freeport McMoRan (FCX) closed up greater than +6%, and Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) closed up greater than +3%.
McCormick & Co (MKC) rallied greater than +5% after reporting Q2 EPS of 69 cents, higher than the consensus of 66 cents, and forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of $3.03-$3.08, above the consensus of $3.02.
Sandisk Corp (SNDK) closed up +0.40% after Citigroup initiated protection of the inventory with a purchase suggestion and a worth goal of $57.
Truist Monetary Corp (TFC) closed up greater than +2% after Citigroup upgraded the inventory to purchase from impartial with a worth goal of $55.
Equinix Inc (EQIX) fell greater than -9% to steer losers within the S&P 500 after BMO Capital Markets downgraded the inventory to market carry out from outperform.
Unity Software program (U) fell greater than -3% after Financial institution of America International Analysis initiated protection of the inventory with a suggestion of underperform and a worth goal of $15.
Commerce Desk (TTD) fell greater than -2% to steer losers within the Nasdaq 100 after Wells Fargo Securities downgraded the inventory to equal weight from obese.
Kratos Protection & Safety Options (KTOS) fell greater than -2% after saying it intends to promote $500 million of shares of its frequent inventory in an underwritten providing.
Jeffries Monetary Group (JEF) rose +0.30% regardless of reporting Q2 EPS of 40 cents, weaker than the consensus of 44 cents.
Earnings Experiences (6/27/2025)
Apogee Enterprises Inc (APOG) and Immersion Corp (IMMR).
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