March 2025 Housing Market Update: Are Price Declines Coming?

Dave:
Your actual property shopping for window is open. Effectively, possibly that’s proper. The housing market is softening after a number of years of supreme vendor energy. Potential worth declines generally is a boon for actual property traders trying to negotiate, however additionally they create danger should you purchase on the incorrect second. So which means is the housing market heading and how will you take most benefit in your personal portfolio? In the present day I’m supplying you with my March, 2025 housing market replace. Hey everybody, it’s Dave head of Actual Property investing at BiggerPockets, and if you already know me, I consider being a profitable investor is about studying and repeatedly bettering in your abilities. Issues like deal discovering, tenant screening, managing rehabs, all that stuff is tremendous necessary. However you additionally want to grasp the broad tendencies which might be taking place within the housing market with a purpose to optimize your portfolio to seek out the perfect offers and to keep away from any pointless ranges of danger.
For that reason, I like to offer a abstract of what’s going on within the housing market and I additionally like to offer my private evaluation and browse on the scenario. I’ll even let you know what I’m fascinated with and doing with my very own portfolio. That is for March, 2025. So tendencies could also be totally different should you’re watching this a bit of bit additional into the longer term. Now I wish to simply say that I’ve been analyzing the housing marketplace for a really very long time. I’ve been an investor for 15 years. I’ve been working at BiggerPockets for 9 and proper now issues are altering just about as shortly as they ever have and that makes it extra necessary than ever to grasp what’s taking place to your personal portfolio and reaching your monetary objectives. Alright, so let’s discuss this softening market and what it really appears like within the numbers and naturally what it means to you.
Now should you have a look at sure web sites like Redfin, you’ll see that dwelling costs are up 4% yr over yr in keeping with what information they’ve collected and once they seasonally regulate it. Once you have a look at among the different information sources, there’s a supply known as the Case Schiller Index and that makes use of a unique methodology the place it principally tracks how the worth of the identical dwelling change over time. And what you see once you have a look at the case Schiller is it’s a lot nearer to flat. And so we’re most likely in someplace in between these two. There’s no excellent measure, however we’re most likely flat-ish housing costs possibly up a bit of bit relying on what market that you simply’re taking a look at. So that’s under no circumstances any form of correction or crash at this level. It’s additionally not likely thrilling information by way of appreciation, however I believe the necessary factor right here is that the development is simply actually flat or a bit of bit down.
We’re not likely seeing appreciation or worth progress begin to speed up once more. And so that is simply one of many causes I’m saying that the market’s flat. Now to grasp if this development goes to proceed or if we’re going to see the market reverse in some form of means, we to dig in a bit of bit deeper, go one degree decrease to attempt to perceive why the market is considerably flat. And I all the time discuss this, however we’ve got to do it. We obtained to speak about provide and demand. That’s what dictates costs within the housing market. And so we have to see what’s occurring with provide, which is simply what number of properties are on the market at any given level or how many individuals are itemizing their properties. And we obtained to take a look at demand. How many individuals wish to purchase properties? Let’s begin with the provision aspect.
There’s actually good information about this. It’s a bit of bit simpler. So we’re going to speak first about one thing known as new listings. This can be a measurement of how many individuals put their properties up on the market in any given month, and that’s up yr over yr. It’s up 6% in keeping with Redfin, which is sweet in some methods, but it surely’s not loopy, proper? We’ve seen actually low stock and to return to a more healthy housing market, there should be extra properties listed on the market. And so having that go up, at the very least within the brief time period is usually seen as a superb factor, however you need to look not at simply how many individuals are itemizing their properties on the market. You even have to take a look at how lengthy these properties are staying in the marketplace as a result of in the event that they’re getting listed and going shortly, then costs can hold going up.
But when extra issues are getting listed this yr than final yr they usually’re simply sitting there and not likely promoting, then costs are most likely going to go flat or go down as a result of as property homeowners who wish to promote their property are seeing their properties simply sit there in the marketplace week after week or month after month, they decrease their worth or they’re prepared to supply concessions. And that’s what finally pushes costs down. And what’s taking place proper now’s that lively listings are up 10% yr over yr. And once more, that’s not loopy as a result of we’ve got to take a look at the historic context right here. So that you would possibly know this, however again in 2019, lively listings had been averaging someplace round 2.3, 2.4 million. Then through the pandemic they went all the way down to 1.6. We really bottomed out at 1.1 million and though they’re going again up proper now, they’re nonetheless at 1.5 million, they’ll most likely go up over the summer season and get someplace near 1.9 million.
In order that they’re going up, however they’re nonetheless not at pre pandemic ranges. And that’s one of many principal issues as we discuss in regards to the housing market that you could bear in mind is once we evaluate what’s taking place now to what was taking place through the pandemic, it’s not the perfect comparability truthfully, as a result of what occurred through the pandemic was simply so uncommon. So to say, oh my god, stock has gone up in comparison with the pandemic. After all it did as a result of it was like in any respect time lows. I personally like to take a look at that also, however in comparison with 2019, and so we’re seeing issues come again nearer to pre pandemic ranges, however we’re not there but. And so that is the rationale why I’m saying that the market is softening. It’s again to the place it was. I might even say it’s simply form of a normalization of the market, however as a result of we’ve gotten used to this tremendous heated market that’s very tight, there should not loads of issues in the marketplace, there are nonetheless loads of demand.
And so issues are transferring actually shortly. That’s why I’m saying it’s softening as a result of we’re simply transferring again to a extra balanced housing market. So that you undoubtedly see that within the lively listings numbers. You see that in another information that you would be able to have a look at for this stuff like days on market, these are going again up or months of provide. These are simply different methods to measure the housing market. We don’t must get into them as we speak, however what you must most likely know is that all the measures of housing market well being are simply saying that we’re getting nearer again to pre pandemic ranges of the steadiness between provide and demand. Now in fact, what I’ve been speaking about thus far is in regards to the nationwide housing market, however there are enormous regional variations. We’re really seeing loads of indicators that the market is sort of splitting. Some markets are rising in a single course, others are going within the different course. So we’re going to interrupt down these regional variations in only a minute. However first we’ve got to take a fast break. And this week’s greater information is delivered to you by the Fundrise Flagship Fund, put money into personal market actual property with the Fundrise Flagship fund. Try fundrise.com/pockets to be taught extra.
Welcome again to the BiggerPockets podcast. We’re right here doing our March housing market replace. Earlier than the break, we talked about how loads of the info means that the nationwide housing market is transferring to a extra balanced market, a extra purchaser’s market, however that’s not taking place in every single place within the nation. So let’s simply take a minute right here and discuss how stock modifications are totally different in numerous areas of the nation. First issues first, what you could know is that each single state within the nation is experiencing will increase in stock besides North Dakota. North Dakota is down 2%, in every single place else is up. That is simply yr over yr since 2024 in February to 2025 in February. And once more, I’m recording this in early March. So the final month that we’ve got information for is February. The state that has the very best shift in stock over the past yr is Nevada.
We see California at 44%, Arizona at 41%. Vermont is up there, Hawaii is close to 50%. In order that’s taking place in every single place the place if you wish to know regionally the place issues are taking place within the least, it’s principally within the northeast and the Midwest. So I mentioned North Dakota, that’s sort of an outlier, however New York for instance, solely up 3%. New jersey’s 9%, Illinois is 9%. So it’s form of a continuation of the tendencies the place the most well liked or the strongest housing markets, I ought to say are within the Midwest and the Northeast. A number of the weaker ones are within the mountain west and west coast and the southeast as nicely. Georgia’s up 37%, Florida’s up 34%. That’s simply at a state degree. However given what I used to be saying earlier than in regards to the utility and usefulness of evaluating information from this previous yr to the yr prior, it’s useful. We have to realize it as a result of you could know the way the market’s altering.
However I additionally like to offer this context of how issues have modified since earlier than the pandemic as a result of that can actually give us some clues about the place costs are heading in any given market. And once you have a look at the info this fashion, it is extremely, very totally different. Keep in mind I simply mentioned that all the things’s going up yr over yr as a result of it was tremendous low. However once we have a look at how February, 2025 compares to February, 2019, it’s a reasonably totally different story. We’ve sure markets the place we’re nonetheless nowhere even near the degrees of stock that we had been at in 2019. After I have a look at a state like Pennsylvania, it’s down 50%, nonetheless over 2019. Maine is down 61%. New Hampshire, 61%, Illinois, 63%, virtually all of it’s concentrated within the Northeast and the Midwest. So Wisconsin, Michigan, Virginia, all of those states are actually down. Really Alaska’s down too.
That’s sort of the one one which’s on the market aside from North Dakota. Once more, these are form of probably the most considerably down, however even all through the remainder of the nation, most states are nonetheless down in comparison with pre pandemic ranges. If we have a look at the Carolinas, California, Nevada, Washington, Oregon, all of them are nonetheless down. So that’s form of the massive image factor that you must take into accout is that though stock is returning, most states are nonetheless down in comparison with pre pandemic. In order that they’re nonetheless not again to what can be thought-about a standard market. There are 4 states, nevertheless which might be above pre pandemic ranges. The primary with probably the most stock progress above pre pandemic ranges is Texas. It’s 15% above the place it was in 2019. Then comes Florida with 9% above Colorado at 7%, and Tennessee really with 2% as nicely. So once more, the regional variations actually matter, and I’m speaking about states.
I can’t get into each particular person metro space on the podcast, it’s simply an excessive amount of to do. However what my advice for all of you is to take a look at these two issues to your particular person market as a result of even inside Texas which has rising stock, there are specific markets and there are specific neighborhoods the place stock continues to be down. Or should you have a look at Pennsylvania, which has 50% declines in stock, I’m positive there are nonetheless neighborhoods in areas the place stock is growing. So I actually suggest you have a look at two issues in your market. Go and evaluate stock ranges proper now in February of 2025 to the place it was final yr, see how a lot that’s rising after which evaluate it to 2019 and also you’ll get a way of how shortly the market is shifting from that actually sturdy sellers market. That was sort of common for years again to what can be a extra regular form of steadiness sort of market.
So what does this all imply? The stuff I mentioned and the analysis you must most likely be doing by yourself as nicely. Any market the place stock goes up quickly has the most important probabilities of worth progress slowing. And in some markets that imply it’d go from 10% appreciation to five% appreciation. In some markets which may imply six to 2. Some markets it’d imply going from flat to destructive. And so it actually depends upon the dimensions of the stock modifications and what’s occurring in your specific market. However as a complete, simply going again, zooming again out to the nationwide degree, I do suppose that given stock is rising and demand hasn’t picked again up, at the very least within the final couple of months, we’re going to see additional softening. And that is a type of explanation why I’ve mentioned repeatedly that I do suppose costs shall be possibly modestly up this yr or someplace close to flat, particularly once you evaluate these issues to inflation, they is likely to be a bit of bit destructive based mostly on the info that we’re seeing right here as we speak.
Now once more, that’s not going to occur in each market and what which means for actual property traders shouldn’t be as apparent as you suppose. Declining costs should not essentially a foul factor. Lots of people, I’d say possibly even most traders suppose that’s really a superb factor. So we’ll discuss extra about what a softening market means, however we form of have to deal with one different large factor earlier than we get into what you must do subsequent, which is in fact mortgage charges. Mortgage charges have been within the information rather a lot and as of this recording, they’ve dropped down to six.64% for a 30 yr repair, which is down almost 0.6% from the place they had been. They’d shot up all the way in which to 7.25%. They’ve come down rather a lot and that’s usually excellent news for actual property traders. However in fact the rationale that is taking place is as a result of there may be dangerous financial information.
So we’ve got to dig into this a bit of bit and form of unpack what’s taking place and what this implies. So why have charges fallen a lot over the past couple of weeks? We’ve talked about this in different episodes, you possibly can go hear about it in additional element, however we’ve seen a bunch of sentimental financial information. The very first thing was we had low shopper sentiment. We really had the most important month over month drop in 4 years. It’s not like that is going loopy, it’s decrease than it was over the previous few months, but it surely’s just about according to the place it’s been from 2022 to 2025. However after the election, shopper confidence had been rising and that has reversed itself over the past couple of weeks, and that decline in shopper confidence worries traders. And so we’ve seen some weak spot within the mushy market. I’ll get to that in a second.
The opposite factor that we’ve seen is an uptick in unemployment claims. There are many methods to measure unemployment. That is one I wish to measure as a result of it principally appears on the variety of layoffs. And so we’ve seen layoffs begin to tick up. Once more, nothing loopy, however these are simply small issues that begin to spook the market, proper? And what we’re speaking about once we discuss mortgage charges is basically how bond traders and inventory traders are reacting to all this information. And proper now, given the extent of uncertainty on this planet, given the extent of uncertainty within the markets, individuals are very delicate. They’re reacting fairly dramatically forwards and backwards to all of the information that they’re getting. And so little modifications in unemployment claims, little modifications in shopper sentiment are most likely impacting markets greater than they might if this was 10 years in the past in the midst of only a regular financial cycle.
So that’s two issues which might be taking place. And so there’s really one factor that has occurred over the past simply two weeks that I believe has additional spooked traders, not tariffs. These are form of apparent. That’s undoubtedly one thing that’s been weighing on folks’s thoughts. However one thing that I believe obtained misplaced within the shuffle over the previous few weeks is that there’s this software known as the GDP Now software. It’s put out by the Atlanta Fed, and it principally predicts the place gross home product goes to go for the present quarter that we’re in. If you happen to don’t know what GDP is gross home product, it’s principally the full measurement of financial output and it’s tremendous necessary, proper? If the financial system is rising, that’s usually a superb factor for the US. If the financial system contracts, which means folks’s high quality of life spending energy is usually happening.
And anyway, what occurred was the Atlanta Fed software, which has confirmed to be very correct traditionally, has modified its prediction. Simply two weeks in the past it was predicting 2% progress for GDP, which isn’t nice. It’s not like an incredible quarter, but it surely’s not dangerous. It’s sort of similar to a standard sort of quarter. It principally plummeted and the estimate now went to about destructive 2.5% and has held there for 3 consecutive weeks. And so now they’re predicting that GDP is definitely going to say no right here within the first quarter of 2025, and that’s tremendous vital for all the explanations that I simply talked about. So between softer shopper sentiment and uptick in unemployment claims, softer GDP projections, uncertainty round tariffs, this has simply principally spooked traders and it has led to a big inventory market selloff. We’ve seen the NASDAQ was down 10% at sure factors, which is correction territory.
That’s a big decline. We’re principally seeing all the increase within the inventory market that we noticed after the Trump election erased we’re again to principally the place we had been earlier than the election. And what occurs for actual property traders for mortgages is when folks unload their inventory market, sometimes what they do is that they take their cash they usually put it in bonds. And I’m not speaking about me. If I offered off a few of my inventory, I most likely wouldn’t go do that, however we’re speaking in regards to the large cash movers. Individuals who handle pension plans or hedge funds, they should put that cash someplace. And so once they take it out of inventory market, they sometimes put it into bonds as a result of they’re seen as secure once they’re spooked about what’s taking place within the inventory market or the financial system as a complete, they take the cash, they put it in bonds, and that will increase demand for bonds as a result of everybody needs them.
And that pushes down yields, proper? If lots of people wish to lend cash to the federal government, the federal government can borrow that cash at a decrease rates of interest. That’s yields coming down. And since yields and mortgage charges are virtually completely correlated, that can take mortgage charges down with them. And so that’s the reason mortgage charges have come down. After all, nobody is aware of for positive what will occur, however I’ll provide you with at the very least my opinion and what I’m fascinated with and doing with my very own portfolio. However first, we’ve got to take a fast break. We’ll be proper again. If you happen to’re desperate to get began in actual property investing, a wise first step is to accomplice with an investor pleasant monetary planner who may help you get your home so as and make sure you’re arrange for monetary success from the get go to biggerpockets.com/tax finder to get matched with a tax skilled or monetary planner in your space.
Welcome again to the BiggerPockets podcast. We’re right here doing our March housing market replace and the place we left off, I used to be going to attempt to make sense of this entire scenario and share with you what I believe this all means. Now, all the info, all the things that I’ve shared with you, the longer term and course of the housing market to me is actually about financial sentiment. And that principally simply sucks as a result of it’s onerous to foretell, proper? I’m sorry, however I do know different influencers, creators, they’re going to let you know definitively what’s going to occur, however they’re deceptive. I’m an analyst and the one factor I can let you know with certainty is that proper now issues are significantly unsure and that’s a very powerful factor to recollect. It’s okay to your investing thesis or speculation to be that it’s unsure. It’s higher to confess that than to behave on a false interpretation or false certainty since you don’t actually know.
However right here’s how I’m personally seeing this. It appears to me that financial pessimism is gaining steam and folks may have totally different opinions about what’s going to occur sooner or later. I’m taking a look at information, I’m taking a look at tendencies, and that is what the info exhibits. It exhibits that investor confidence is down, the inventory market is popping, the housing market is beginning to soften, and does that imply we’re going to a recession? I don’t know. I believe it’s far too early to say that the GDP now factor is only one estimate, however I’m simply telling you that the change from the place we had been in January to the place the info was in February is fairly vital. There was loads of financial optimism in December and January that has shifted in February and it’d shift again, however proper now it does really feel like financial pessimism is gaining steam.
And for me, there are a pair issues to remove from this. The very first thing that has been coming to my thoughts lately is that if we enter in a recession, and once more, that may be a large if, however one thing I’ve been fascinated with is might this form as much as be what’s kind a basic financial cycle the place actual property is the quote first in first out, should you haven’t heard of this, there’s this sample that has existed in loads of recessions prior to now the place issues are going off nice, we’re in an growth, companies are booming, the inventory market’s going up, all the things is nice, individuals are taking out debt. At a sure level, the financial system begins to overheat and that results in inflation. At that time, the Federal Reserve raises rates of interest, proper? Sound acquainted? That is what’s been occurring. And when the Federal Reserve raises rates of interest, it impacts actual property first.
And I’m not saying this simply because it is a actual property podcast, however actual property is simply principally probably the most leveraged asset class. And really as we’ve seen over the past a number of a long time, it’s grow to be actually form of by itself in how leveraged it’s, which principally means it makes use of probably the most debt. And positive folks take out debt to finance buildings and manufacturing and expansions for companies, however actual property is actually extremely leveraged. And so that you see actual property bear the brunt of a recession really in the beginning else. And should you’re on this trade, you’ve been most likely saying this and screaming that we’re in an actual property recession for the final two or three years, transaction quantity has been down, costs have been largely flat, proper? We’ve form of been in an actual property recession for some time. However what’s been wonderful is that different elements of the American financial system has remained resilient regardless of these increased rates of interest.
And for one motive or one other, possibly that resilience is cracking proper now and it’s reverting again to what we might’ve anticipated that the remainder of the financial system is beginning to really feel among the ache of upper rates of interest. In order that’s form of the basic begin of a recession, proper? Actual property comes first after which the remainder of the financial system comes second. However then what occurs when the remainder of the financial system begins to decelerate? Effectively, the Federal Reserve needs to stimulate the financial system. They’re now not as afraid of inflation, so that they decrease rates of interest, and that provides a stimulus first to actual property, proper? As a result of it’s a leveraged asset class. In order these charges begin to come down, it kickstarts financial exercise, significantly in the actual property part, and that may really assist lead all the financial system out of a recession. And actual property is sufficiently big.
It’s a sufficiently big a part of our financial system to each assist deliver the financial system right into a recession. And out of it, it’s estimated to be about 16% of GDP. That’s enormous for anyone trade. Now, should you’re pondering that’s not what occurred in 2008, that’s undoubtedly true. It’s form of the exception to this sample, and we don’t know what’s going to occur. However the perception amongst most economists is it didn’t occur in 2008 as a result of in contrast to this present time in 2008, housing was the issue. That’s what created the recession within the first place. Whereas proper now, housing shouldn’t be the issue. Housing, loads of the basics are basically sound. What’s occurring with housing is mostly a response to rates of interest. And so what I see rising is doubtlessly this primary in first out scenario. That’s most likely what I believe is the probably state of affairs as we’re taking a look at it as we speak.
I believe there are two different issues which might be attainable that I’ll simply point out, however I believe they’re much less probably. So the second factor that may occur is possibly that is only a blip in financial information and there’s really going to be sturdy progress and folks regain their confidence, during which case we’ll most likely see mortgage charges return up a bit of bit. I don’t know in the event that they’re going to return as much as 7.25, however they’ll most likely return up once more. Wherein case, I believe the housing market will proceed on its present softening trajectory. Once more, I don’t suppose which means a crash. It most likely means corrections in sure markets the place different markets are going to continue to grow. However I believe we’ll proceed on the development that we’ve been on for the final couple of months. So that may be a second chance. It’s not that unlikely, it simply doesn’t appear to be the probably state of affairs.
After which the third one, I don’t suppose that is so probably proper now, however really once you have a look at among the information, there’s a little little bit of danger proper now of what’s generally known as stagflation. And once more, I don’t suppose that is what’s taking place simply but, however I simply wish to name it out as a result of it’s attainable. Stagflation is when the financial system slows down, however inflation goes up. That is principally the worst case state of affairs for the financial system, however we’ve got seen inflation go up a bit of bit then it’s form of flat, so it’s not tremendous regarding simply but. However there’s a world the place inflation goes again up resulting from tariffs. And the GDP now software is appropriate and GDP declines, during which case we might have a very troublesome financial scenario the place the financial system is contracting, however inflation goes up, and that’s principally the worst case state of affairs.
Spending energy goes down, however wages aren’t going up, the inventory market goes down. And so though that’s attainable, I wouldn’t fear about that simply but. It’s simply one thing that I wished to say that we’ll regulate within the subsequent couple of months. In order we do these updates each single month, I’ll replace you and allow you to know if that’s a priority. There’s some information tendencies that counsel it’s attainable, however I believe we’re nonetheless a far means off from concluding that that’s taking place. So let’s simply return to what I believe is the probably state of affairs, which is sort of this primary in first out scenario with actual property. Does that imply that it’s doubtlessly a superb time to purchase actual property, proper? As a result of don’t get me incorrect, when markets are softening like they’re, that comes with danger.
There’s additional danger that costs are going to say no. And I’ve mentioned it earlier than, however there may be loads of rubbish on the market. There’s loads of dangerous offers, overpriced stuff on the market, and issues might worsen earlier than they get higher. However there may be additionally a case that in at the very least some and possibly many regional markets {that a} shopping for window could emerge. Take into consideration the circumstances that we would have over the subsequent couple of months. Extra stock coming in the marketplace results in worth softness, which provides you negotiating leverage, proper? As a result of if you already know that costs are mushy they usually is likely to be declining extra, that’s one thing that you ought to be utilizing in your bid technique. And once you’re providing on properties, attempt to purchase under asking worth or what you suppose the market would possibly backside out at. So that provides you negotiating leverage. Keep in mind I mentioned softening it sounds scary, however that truly means we’re in a purchaser’s market.
Patrons have the ability. In order that’s one good factor you won’t wish to purchase even in a purchaser’s market, should you suppose that that purchaser’ss market’s going to proceed for a very long time and we’re going to have this form of protracted interval of costs happening. However keep in mind that costs have been largely flat or rising modestly over simply the final couple of years. And so we’ve seen this for some time. And if the present financial temper is appropriate and that we’re going to see a contracting financial system, that signifies that charges would possibly keep as little as they’re now they usually might go down a bit of bit extra. And if that state of affairs occurs, that would deliver demand again into the housing market. Individuals typically suppose that if the financial system is doing poorly and there’s a recession that causes decrease housing demand, however that’s not all the time the case.
Housing demand is nearly all the time tied to affordability. And so sure, should you don’t have a job, you’re not going to be going on the market and shopping for a house. However for individuals who really feel safe of their jobs, this would possibly really result in higher housing affordability. If the market softens and charges go down, which means extra individuals are going to have the ability to afford extra properties. That drives up demand and will really reignite worth appreciation within the housing market. That’s not what occurred in 2008, bear in mind, that’s an outlier. However that is what typically occurs. So it’s one thing I’ll be retaining an in depth eye out for, and I like to recommend you do too. Personally, I’ve been in search of offers. I’m all the time in search of offers. I haven’t discovered something thus far but this yr. I’ve provided on some, haven’t been capable of make it work, however I’m possibly unusually optimistic in regards to the potential for deal move over the subsequent couple of months and within the second half of this yr.
I believe that proper now, we’ve been speaking rather a lot this yr about this potential for upside. And whereas there may be danger, don’t get me incorrect, there may be danger in these sorts of markets. That upside is there and would possibly even really be rising all through 2025 as a result of if charges do come down and you’ve got the chance to barter higher costs on homes, that would set the stage for actually good upside and future progress. In order that’s how I’m seeing it. I might love should you’re watching this on YouTube to tell us how you might be decoding this housing market and what selections you’re making about your personal portfolio. Thanks all a lot for listening to this episode of the BiggerPockets podcast. I hope this housing market replace was helpful to you. We’ll see you subsequent time.