Simply two weeks in the past, I wrote that the USA had lastly launched its personal Manhattan Undertaking for AI.
To me, the Genesis Mission marks a transparent turning level for the nation. It’s proof that the federal authorities is able to deal with synthetic intelligence as crucial infrastructure, similar to we’ve achieved with our highways, our nationwide grid and our area program.
Now it seems to be like the identical factor might occur with robotics.
Final week, Politico reported that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has been assembly with robotics CEOs behind closed doorways.
Sources described him as “all in” on accelerating the sector. The article additionally hinted at one thing even greater.
The Trump administration is contemplating a proper govt order on robotics in 2026.
And I’m all for it. Right here’s why…
Trump’s Subsequent Massive Tech Push?
Synthetic intelligence is essentially the most highly effective new instrument the world has seen in a long time.
However I don’t imagine we’ll be capable of reshape the financial system with AI alone. In some unspecified time in the future, intelligence has to succeed in into the bodily world. It has to have the ability to construct, transfer, carry, assemble and do all of the issues people can do… and extra.
Robots are the physique for AI’s brains. Which is precisely why a nationwide plan for robotics is sensible proper now.
And I imagine the timing of this “leak” isn’t an accident.
As we’ve talked about many instances earlier than, robotics adoption is rising quick. In 2023, corporations across the globe put in roughly 541,000 industrial robots, and by 2024 the overall variety of robots in use worldwide had grown previous 4.6 million.
That progress has pushed international robotic density — measured as robots per 10,000 manufacturing employees — to an all-time excessive of 162. Which means, the world averages about 162 robots for each 10,000 manufacturing employees.
In the USA, that quantity is slightly greater at round 197 robots per 10,000 employees. Which could sound good at first, however the hole between the U.S. and the world’s most automated economies is large.
Main nations akin to South Korea now deploy greater than 1,000 robots per 10,000 employees.
In different phrases, even because the robotics tide rises all over the place, the hole between the U.S. and high adopters is rising.
If the White Home needs to shut that hole, an govt order might flip robotics right into a nationwide precedence in a single day.
In fact, this wouldn’t occur in a vacuum. Tesla has mentioned its Optimus robotic might sooner or later change into extra useful than each different Tesla product mixed.
Picture: Tesla
Whereas Determine AI — which launched its Determine 03 robotic in October — has raised greater than $1.75 billion from buyers together with Microsoft, the OpenAI Startup Fund, Nvidia and Jeff Bezos.
Picture: Determine AI
Agility Robotics has opened America’s first manufacturing facility for humanoids, designed to provide greater than 10,000 robots a yr. And Amazon has already deployed over 750,000 robots in its logistics community.
So we clearly have the capability as a rustic to maneuver rapidly on robotics. What we want now could be scale.
And that’s the place coverage is available in.
A robotics govt order might observe the identical sample we noticed with AI. It might direct federal businesses to undertake automation in logistics, power, protection and transportation. It might lay out nationwide security and efficiency requirements for humanoids and cell robots. And it might provide incentives for corporations that construct their robots on U.S. soil as an alternative of outsourcing manufacturing to Asia.
It might even reshape how robots be taught.
One of many largest breakthroughs of the previous two years has been combining bodily robots with giant AI fashions. These methods can practice in simulation after which switch these expertise into the true world.
With sufficient compute, they’ll be taught duties far sooner than conventional preprogrammed machines.
A nationwide technique for bodily AI might pace that up and push the market into its subsequent stage. And we’re already beginning to see hints of what which may appear like.
The Division of Transportation is forming a robotics working group. A number of protection initiatives now embody budgets for autonomous methods that may assist with inspections, ordinance removing and catastrophe response. And early drafts of the administration’s industrial plans present a transparent curiosity in reshoring superior manufacturing.
This tells me that Washington is preparing for a world the place robots are all over the place inside the subsequent two to a few years.
Right here’s My Take
Robotics is about up for a similar sort of acceleration we’re already experiencing with AI. The know-how is maturing. The economics are lining up. And the USA has each purpose to construct this capability at house.
That’s why I used to be thrilled to be taught that the Trump administration is weighing a full robotics technique. As a result of the financial case for automation has by no means been stronger.
In fact, a nationwide plan wouldn’t resolve each problem we face, however it will ship a robust sign that we intend to steer this subsequent industrial age.
If Washington follows by way of, robotics might change into the bridge between America’s new AI engines and a fair stronger industrial base.
Regards,
Ian King
Chief Strategist, Banyan Hill Publishing
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