How the stock market made it back to a new record — even with so much still to worry about

An aggressive commerce warfare, Center East escalation and AI competitions abroad — None of 2025’s large curveballs managed to spoil the market’s epic comeback from the yr’s lows as shares stand inside attain of a brand new document. This is why.

The S&P 500 is lower than 0.1% away from closing at a brand new document, rebounding from a close to 20% sell-off in April. The tech-focused Nasdaq 100 is already one step forward, hitting an all-time excessive on Tuesday. The most recent leg larger got here as buyers wager a ceasefire within the Center East might stop a significant disruption to world oil provide.

“I am shocked by the magnitude of the rebound,” mentioned Kevin Simpson, portfolio supervisor at Capital Wealth Planning. “Once you issue within the geopolitical backdrop — the continued battle, volatility and uncertainty — I would not have anticipated the S&P 500 to snap again to new highs this rapidly. This sort of power speaks to simply how a lot liquidity remains to be within the system and the way keen buyers are to purchase dips in a market dominated by megacap tech and AI enthusiasm.” 

Total, the wall of fear has been crumbling little by little over the previous 4 months. Maybe most significantly, President Donald Trump backed off from the stiffest tariffs on key U.S. companions as nations proceed to barter commerce offers in the summertime. Earlier this month, the U.S. reached a commerce truce with China with Beijing agreeing to provide uncommon earths.

“We anticipate extra commerce offers to supply some extra readability and ultimately scale back company, shopper and investor anxiousness,” Chris Haverland, world fairness strategist at Wells Fargo Funding Institute., mentioned in a be aware. “Deregulation, tax cuts and decrease short-term borrowing charges ought to additional bolster earnings.”

Additionally, company earnings have held up nicely regardless of coverage uncertainty. For the second quarter, the S&P 500 earnings grew by 4.9%, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings development for the index, in keeping with FactSet.

Financial system in good condition

Another excuse for market resilience is the U.S. economic system, which stays on strong footing. The unemployment price stays low at 4.2% additionally the Could nonfarm payrolls report confirmed solely a slight softening within the labor market. Essentially the most current inflation information additionally indicated that tariffs have accomplished little to have an effect on costs.

The Federal Reserve expects to make two price reductions later this yr, in keeping with the intently watched “dot plot.” Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that he expects policymakers to remain on maintain till they’ve a greater deal with on the affect tariffs may have on costs.

“In our baseline situation we imagine a US recession shall be averted,” Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, chief world fairness strategist at JPMorgan, mentioned in a be aware to shoppers. “Latest weak spot in a number of the labour market indicators and restricted pass-through from tariffs to inflation to this point might immediate a Fed easing sooner than our December forecast.”

AI story intact

In the meantime, the unreal intelligence story that has supported the market nicely over two years continues to be unfazed. The most recent earnings season has restored investor confidence — Nvidia continued to develop at a speedy clip, whereas Large Tech’s spending on AI hasn’t slowed down. Traders had been rattled at the start of the yr as China’s DeepSeek startup raised the query whether or not the billions of {dollars} of funding was justified.

“The secular development of AI stays strong, and up to date adoption and monetization developments ought to underpin the subsequent leg of the AI rally amid a supportive backdrop,” Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, head CIO world equities at UBS, mentioned in a be aware to shoppers.

JPMorgan estimated that AI might drive $1 trillion of spending by 2030, together with investments in generative AI computing, networking and storage infrastructure.

Nonetheless, the subsequent few weeks might carry extra volatility to the market. Traders are bracing for a July 8 deadline for reciprocal tariff suspension, whereas extra jobs information are on deck subsequent week to gauge the well being of the labor market.

“Markets typically are likely to see extra volatility within the construct as much as conflicts after which rally or flip to different components as soon as it is began,” mentioned Carol Schleif, chief market strategist at BMO Non-public Wealth.