First Majestic Silver: A Slow Start To The New Year (NYSE:AG)

The Q1 Earnings Season for the Silver Miners Index (SIL) begins subsequent month, and one of many first corporations to launch its preliminary Q1 outcomes was First Majestic Silver (NYSE:AG). The corporate noticed robust progress year-over-year, helped by the newly acquired Jerritt Canyon [JC] Mine. Nonetheless, consolidated manufacturing did fall sharply vs. This autumn 2021. The excellent news is that manufacturing will enhance because the 12 months progresses, with significant progress in consolidated gold manufacturing on deck. Nonetheless, with First Majestic buying and selling at greater than 3.0x P/NAV, I nonetheless do not see any margin of security to justify getting into new positions right here at US$12.60.

First Majestic Silver launched its preliminary Q1 outcomes final week, reporting quarterly manufacturing of ~7.22 million silver-equivalent ounces [SEOs], consisting of ~58,900 ounces of gold and ~2.61 million ounces of silver. This was a large enchancment from the ~4.54 million SEOs produced within the year-ago interval. The majority of this progress stems from the acquisition of a brand new ~120,000-ounce each year gold asset, the Jerritt Canyon Mine in Nevada. Let’s take a more in-depth take a look at the quarter beneath:

Manufacturing

Trying on the chart beneath, we are able to see that website positioning manufacturing elevated sharply on a year-over-year foundation however did see a significant step down vs. This autumn 2021 ranges, sliding greater than 14% to ~7.22 million SEOS (This autumn 2021: ~8.56 million SEOs). The decline in manufacturing was associated to decrease throughput at its Mexican operations, which had been affected by elevated absenteeism ranges in early Q1 because of COVID-19. Happily, this did not result in a lot of a decline at Santa Elena, which is benefiting from a better proportion of mill feed from its higher-grade close by Ermitano Mine that is now in manufacturing. Nonetheless, it did put a pointy dent in output at its different two Mexican operations.

Trying on the quarterly operations beneath, we are able to see that San Dimas noticed a 24% decline in manufacturing on a sequential foundation to ~3.08 million SEOs, associated to decrease throughput and grades. Throughout Q1, San Dimas processed 5% fewer tonnes at a lot decrease grades, with a median grade of 282 grams per tonne of silver and three.09 grams per tonne of gold. This in contrast unfavorably to grades of 347 grams per tonne of gold and three.09 grams per tonne of silver in This autumn 2021. In the meantime, at La Encantada, we noticed an identical image, with throughput declining greater than 6%, with grades sliding practically 10%, from 117 grams per tonne of silver to 108 grams per tonne of silver in Q1 2022.

Happily, whereas these two operations dragged down consolidated manufacturing, Santa Elena had a robust quarter, with Ermitano starting to tug important weight. This was evidenced by the asset rising manufacturing from ~453,500 ounces of silver and ~6,300 ounces of gold in Q1 2021 to ~337,200 ounces of silver and ~19,600 ounces of gold in Q1 2022. This was regardless of decrease throughput year-over-year, with the numerous enhance in gold manufacturing because of the a lot increased gold grades at Ermitano, which made up 43% of throughput, with ~114,200 tonnes coming from Ermitano of the ~201,900 tonnes processed.

First Majestic famous in its ready remarks that it has begun development of the LNG powerplant enlargement and powerline at Santa Elena, offering low-cost clear energy to the Ermitano Mine. This can even help the ability necessities for the dual-circuit installations for finger grinding to enhance restoration charges. Based mostly on estimated FY2022 manufacturing, this asset ought to produce upwards of 6.6 million SEOs at a median value of simply over $16.00/oz, which might evaluate favorably to ~5.04 million SEOs in FY2021 at a median value of $19.20 per silver-equivalent ounce final 12 months.

Jerritt Canyon Mine

Shifting to Nevada to First Majestic’s second pillar for progress, it was a sluggish begin to the 12 months, which the corporate famous was impacted by harsh climate in January that led to fewer tonnes processed. Because the chart beneath reveals, Jerritt Canyon had a comparatively smooth quarter in Q1, contributing simply ~20,700 ounces, or ~16.9% of its annual manufacturing steering mid-point. The weaker manufacturing was because of considerably fewer tonnes processed at decrease grades, with simply ~230,000 tonnes processed at a median grade of three.30 grams per tonne of gold. This in contrast unfavorably to ~256,400 tonnes processed in This autumn 2021 at 3.41 grams per tonne of gold.

Whereas this sluggish begin to the 12 months is disappointing, the remainder of the 12 months ought to look a lot better. It’s because the corporate is out of the winter season, it is working to ramp up its West Era underground mine that ought to start contributing mill feed by Q3, and it is efficiently linked its SSX and Smith Mines. Lastly, it is also trying to rehabilitate the Saval II underground mine, offering one more supply of mill feed down the highway. Between more practical exploration with an exploration to float to discover between the 2 mines, much less floor haulage after connecting SSX and Smith, and the power to use the surplus capability on the mill, I stay cautiously optimistic about this asset.

So far, there is no query that operations at Jerritt Canyon have been excessive value and comparatively low quantity, which could make it very troublesome to justify the acquisition. Nonetheless, with ~1.45 million tonnes of capability on the mill and simply over ~900,000 tonnes (63%) of capability presently getting used, there is a chance to extend manufacturing meaningfully at little additional value. After growing the denominator and optimizing the asset, this could assist to enhance prices meaningfully at Jerritt Canyon from the $2,048/oz all-in sustaining prices final 12 months and greater than $1,500/oz this 12 months.

It is also vital to notice that FY2021 was a 12 months of funding with the tailings enlargement and roaster upgrades, which made prices artificially excessive within the interval. However, with a better denominator (manufacturing profile), and assuming First Majestic is profitable in filling the mill, we may see manufacturing enhance to greater than 185,000 ounces by 2024 with all-in sustaining prices nearer to $1,400/oz, assuming inflationary pressures do not worsen sector-wide. Whereas this might nonetheless symbolize above-average prices relative to an estimated trade AISC of $1,200/oz (2023), this asset would nonetheless generate significant working money circulation if the gold value can proceed to hang around above the $1,850/oz stage.

Development

Though the Q1 manufacturing figures had been disappointing, and First Majestic’s AISC margins are prone to are available beneath $4.50/oz in Q1, prices and manufacturing will enhance because the 12 months progresses. That is based mostly on elevated contribution from Ermitano, a return to extra regular operations in Mexico (much less COVID-19 absenteeism), and a rise in processing charges at Jerritt Canyon with the West Era underground coming on-line.

Because the chart reveals, that is anticipated to push gold manufacturing up by greater than 40% year-over-year if First Majestic can meet its steering mid-point of ~273,000 ounces. This may greater than offset the low single-digit decline in annual silver manufacturing. Assuming Jerritt Canyon’s optimization is profitable, it ought to assist preserve gold manufacturing above the 270,000-ounce mark for the foreseeable future. The important thing, nevertheless, can be persevering with to increase the mine life at First Majestic’s San Dimas Mine and its quick mine life at La Encantada as a result of, in any other case, the upper gold manufacturing can be partially offset by declining silver manufacturing.

Because it stands, San Dimas has a mine lifetime of fewer than 5 years based mostly on reserves and an assumed ~950,000 tonnes each year throughput fee. In the meantime, La Encantada has a mine lifetime of barely two years based mostly on reserves, which is kind of quick. I’m assured that First Majestic can prolong mine lives previous 2026 and 2023 at these two belongings, respectively, however the important thing can be if new reserves will be added at comparable grades. If grades can’t be maintained although, we may see barely decrease manufacturing and at increased prices.

Valuation & Technical Image

Based mostly on ~266 million absolutely diluted shares and a share value of US$12.60, First Majestic trades at a market cap of ~$3.35 billion. This determine dwarfs my estimate of the corporate’s mixed Venture After-Tax NPV (5%) of ~$1.0 billion. It is value noting that this doesn’t embody any potential impacts from the tax dispute with the Servicio de Administracion Tributaria, the income service of the Mexican Authorities. Therefore, even with out factoring in any potential damaging impacts from this dispute, the inventory trades at over 3.0x P/NAV. This can be a steep value to pay for any valuable metals identify, even when it advantages from increased leverage because of its silver publicity.

In actual fact, if we evaluate this valuation to extra diversified and higher-margin names like Barrick Gold (GOLD) and Agnico Eagle (AEM) or higher-margin silver corporations like Hecla (HL), First Majestic trades at greater than twice the typical P/NAV a number of of those friends. This does not imply that the inventory cannot go increased, and this internet asset worth could also be undervaluing Jerritt Canyon, provided that I’ve not assigned a lot worth till we begin to see the fruits of the optimization work. Nonetheless, because it stands, and with a comparatively quick reserve life at two of its belongings, First Majestic ranks excessive on progress however low on worth.

Shifting to the technical image above, this confirms that we have not hit a low-risk purchase zone but, with First Majestic sitting within the higher portion of its buying and selling vary, even after its current pullback. That is based mostly on the truth that the inventory has $1.75 in potential upside to its newly confirmed resistance stage of $14.20 – $14.35. In the meantime, the inventory has roughly $2.95 in potential draw back to its help at $9.65. The result’s a present reward/threat ratio of 0.59 to 1.0, which is effectively beneath my shopping for standards.

Typically, relating to mid-cap producers with common or below-average jurisdictional profiles, I want a minimal reward/threat of 4.5 to 1.0 to justify getting into new positions. Therefore, for First Majestic to drop into a possible purchase zone, the inventory would want to slip beneath $10.35. At these ranges, I might nonetheless not see a conservative backdrop from a valuation standpoint, provided that I see a conservative truthful worth for the inventory beneath US$9.00. Nonetheless, I might view this as an honest entry from a swing-trading standpoint.

First Majestic Silver had a sluggish begin to the brand new 12 months, however as steering reveals, the corporate is ready to develop manufacturing meaningfully in 2022. So, whereas it is simple to get hung up on the Q1 outcomes, I believe it is higher to have a look at the large image, which is increased manufacturing and strong exploration upside at Ermitano/Jerritt Canyon. Having stated all that, I see a conservative truthful worth beneath $9.00 for First Majestic Silver, making it arduous to justify proudly owning the inventory from an funding standpoint. So, for me to get within the inventory, I would want to see it dip beneath $10.35 per share, the place it might enter a purchase zone from a swing-trading standpoint.