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Everyone is looking to 2000-02 and/or 2007-09 for guidance, but isn’t the 2022+ bear market starting to look a little like 1937?

by IWB
June 18, 2022
in Markets
Reading Time: 4 mins read
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Notably, the 1937 bear market was accompanied by a recession that resulted from ‘a contraction within the cash provide attributable to Federal Reserve and Treasury Division insurance policies’. t.co/ixXqWBaJMY

— joe francis (@joefrancis505) June 17, 2022

Did they break something whereas they did so? Hell yeah! pic.twitter.com/y54kwH5UJj

— joe francis (@joefrancis505) June 17, 2022

 

Inflation is uncontrolled pic.twitter.com/jOA1ApcBvH

— Jesse Cohen (@JesseCohenInv) June 10, 2022

Shopper Spending Is Operating Out Of Steam and the Market Isn’t Prepared For It

Bank card information present that spending in Could was simply 10% larger from the identical month final 12 months, based on a Barclays report this week. For the remainder of 2021, that month-to-month spending development has averaged extra like 20%.

That slowing development, mixed with weakening dwelling gross sales and declines in wage development, would imply that financial tightening is already hitting the financial system laborious. The Fed might be able to tighten much less aggressively in July, based on Barclays, which is forecasting only a half proportion level fee hike subsequent month. Charges markets point out a robust probability of a three-quarter proportion level hike.

The inventory and company bond markets don’t replicate the danger of a weakening shopper, wrote Barclays strategists together with Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Ryan Preclaw, and Hale Holden, in a separate Tuesday notice. The slowing development of shopper spending underscores how tough the Fed’s job is now because it seems to be to comprise inflation that’s working at a four-decade excessive, whereas making an attempt to keep away from tipping the financial system into recession.

To place issues in historic perspective, we’re within the blue line thus far 👇 chart @petergarnry pic.twitter.com/y2IHRm51Vl

— Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) June 16, 2022

We’re nonetheless simply getting began – Month-to-month S&P pic.twitter.com/IL5rJ5jp3R

— Wall Avenue Silver (@WallStreetSilv) June 17, 2022

China shopper confidence plunged most ever since 1992, nearly fell by means of the chart. But industrial output resilient. They was extremely correlated. Odd.

中国消费者信心暴跌程度30年历史之最,快跌穿图底了。但工业产出却坚韧超预期。这些曾是高度相关的数据。为什么? pic.twitter.com/xDcCVdNaOL

— Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA (@HAOHONG_CFA) June 17, 2022

Angela Rayner is seen on the entrance of the march as hundreds of demonstrators cross Downing Avenue. With inflation spiralling uncontrolled the Trades Union Council organised the #protest to lift consciousness in regards to the #CostOfLivingCrisis. #London, UK June 18th, 2022 @pplsassembly pic.twitter.com/qdkMH4Q4mg

— Andy Barton (@Andybartonphoto) June 18, 2022

Tremendous inflation!
World pandemic that they concern pumped!
Battle & rumors of wars!
meals skying in worth!
Water disappearing all around the world!
This might be the beginning of the good tribulation!
Debt load uncontrolled private and governments!
Test your gasoline costs thank fraud Biden.

— ⚡️Samuel ⚡️John ⚡️Thunder (@Sammieheals) June 10, 2022

 

Probably the most leveraged, most speculative gamers available in the market are sitting on large losses.

Greatest guess is the smallest choices merchants have taken $600 million+ in losses since Thanksgiving. pic.twitter.com/n4R9j9nNF9

— Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) June 18, 2022



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