Episode #436: Kevin Van Trump – Right here’s What’s Happening With Ag Commodities
Visitor: Kevin Van Trump is the President and founding father of Farm Course and the Van Trump Report.
Date Recorded: 8/3/2022 | Run-Time: 55:53
Abstract: In right this moment’s episode, Kevin walks us via his early profession as a dealer to now operating the Van Trump Report. Then we contact on wild 12 months for the ag commodities and listen to Kevin’s ideas on wheat, soybeans and corn. He touches on the impression of Chinese language demand and the shifts he’s seen within the ag markets over his profession.
Sponsor: AcreTrader – AcreTrader is an funding platform that makes it easy to personal shares of farmland and earn passive earnings, and you can begin investing in simply minutes on-line. In case you’re involved in a deeper understanding, and for extra info on how you can turn into a farmland investor via their platform, please go to acretrader.com/meb.
Feedback or ideas? Interested by sponsoring an episode? E mail us [email protected]
Hyperlinks from the Episode:
- 0:39 – Sponsor: AcreTrader
- 1:38 – Intro
- 2:14 – Welcome to our visitor, Kevin Van Trump
- 3:01 – Kevin’s origin as a dealer in Chicago
- 5:48 – How lengthy he’s been writing The Van Trump Report
- 11:43 – Characterizing his method as in investor
- 12:44 – Episode #431: Scott Reynolds Nelson; Kevin’s ideas on the wheat explosion this previous 12 months
- 16:14 – Kevin’s ideas on the present state of commodities
- 19:25 – China’s impression on commodity markets
- 22:32 – The function of the US greenback on commodity markets
- 28:33 – The modifications in expertise Kevin has seen in commodities and agriculture
- 34:00 – What Kevin says to buyers who’re in search of publicity to those sectors
- 44:50 – Classes from Kevin’s buying and selling in his profession
- 47:08 – Kevin’s most memorable funding
- 50:21 – What’s FARMCON?
- 52:48 – Study extra about Kevin; vantrumpreport.com; Twitter @kevinvantrump
Transcript:
Welcome Message: Welcome to “The Meb Faber Present” the place the main target is on serving to you develop and protect your wealth. Be part of us as we talk about the craft of investing and uncover new and worthwhile concepts, all that will help you develop wealthier and wiser. Higher investing begins right here.
Disclaimer: Meb Faber is the co-founder and chief funding officer at Cambria Funding Administration. Resulting from trade laws, he is not going to talk about any of Cambria’s funds on this podcast. All opinions expressed by podcast contributors are solely their very own opinions and don’t mirror the opinion of Cambria Funding Administration or its associates. For extra info, go to cambriainvestments.com.
Sponsor Message: At this time’s episode is sponsored by AcreTrader. From the primary third of 2022, each shares and bonds are down. You’ve heard us speak in regards to the significance of diversifying past simply shares and bonds alone. And if you happen to’re in search of an asset that may assist you to diversify your portfolio and supply a possible hedge towards inflation and rising meals costs, look no additional than farmland.
Now you could be considering Meb, I don’t wish to fly to a rural space, work with a dealer I’ve by no means met earlier than, spend a whole bunch of 1000’s of {dollars} to purchase a farm, after which go determine how you can run it myself. However that’s the place AcreTrader is available in. AcreTrader is an funding platform that makes it easy to personal shares of farmland and earn passive earnings. And you can begin investing in simply minutes on-line.
I personally invested on AcreTrader, can say it was a simple course of. If you wish to study extra about AcreTrader take a look at Episode 312 after I spoke with Founder Carter Malloy. And if you happen to’re involved in a deeper understanding on how you can turn into a farmland investor via their platform, please go to acretrader.com/meb. That’s acretrader.com/meb.
Meb: What’s up my associates? We acquired a spectacular present for you right this moment. Our visitor is Kevin Van Trump, the founding father of Farm Course and “The Van Trump Report,” which shares proprietary analysis for farm buyers and agricultural professionals.
In right this moment’s episode, Kevin walks us via his early profession as a dealer to now operating the vastly common Van Trump Report. Then we contact on the wild 12 months for the ag commodities and listen to Kevin’s ideas on wheat, soybean, corn. He touches on the impression of Chinese language demand and the shifts he’s seeing within the ag markets over his profession. Please get pleasure from this episode with Kevin Van Trump.
Meb: Kevin, welcome to the present.
Kevin: Hey, thanks for having me. Recognize it.
Meb: I’m a longtime listener, first-time caller right here. For the newbies on the market the place do we discover you right this moment?
Kevin: I’m simply south of Kansas Metropolis down right here. My spouse and I grew up in a small rural city south of Kansas Metropolis. So yeah, we’re down right here simply sitting. We acquired a lake home out this manner. And so, acquired some properties in downtown Kansas Metropolis. However just about since COVID, we’ve been out right here form of acquired again to the farm and form of again to the agricultural way of life.
Meb: Yeah, man when the zombie apocalypse began right here in LA once they closed the seashores and the parks, which is probably the most insane factor if you happen to’re an LA resident to shut the seashores. We have been like we acquired to get out of dodge. Anyway, all proper. So for the listeners who aren’t accustomed to you, let’s get a little bit origin story background. I do know you probably did a while buying and selling in Chicago. I’m extra accustomed to all the things you’re doing now. However for the newbies who don’t know, Kevin, inform us a little bit your story.
Kevin: Nicely, I went to work for the NFL after I first acquired out of school. Married my highschool sweetheart and had a superb job doing camps, combines, clinics, it was a enjoyable job. Wasn’t good a job, wasn’t making a lot cash, however I used to be travelling round doing a bunch of cool stuff. And that was earlier than any of that was actually common, or on TV, or paid a lot. And had a pair provides one from the Vikings, one from the Dolphins.
I at all times inform individuals, inform the youngsters, the assistant to the assistant pulling guard coach most likely. And I bear in mind we glance again at among the letters we saved them. And I believe the unique provide was like for $11,000 or $12,000 yearly, you already know. So making no cash. My spouse form of lands her dream job in Chicago engaged on Michigan Avenue. She was within the vogue aspect of issues. So we up and go away, you already know, rural America out right here.
Our households actually didn’t have a lot cash, each our dad and mom have been blue-collar staff and simply form of did sufficient to get by. However, you already know, we find yourself in Chicago and all my associates within the NFL mentioned, “Man, you bought to get within the buying and selling enterprise.” And I mentioned, “Hell, I don’t know something about buying and selling and I’ve labored on farms my entire life.” Sports activities man went to varsity, performed sports activities, you already know, entire 9 yards.
And so they mentioned, “Nicely go speak to those individuals.” They gave me a pair names to go speak to. They’re like, “Rattling, dude, you’re a giant tall man.” I used to be about 6’4″ most likely about 350 on the time and so they’re like “You’re employed, all people will see you, straightforward to get orders off. So, you already know, lots of people will see you and it makes it very easy.”
So I begin over on the Merc. I begin off simply buying and selling FX principally Swiss francs, DeMarks, Japanese yen issues like that. Then I began buying and selling reside cattle and various things. Moved over to the board, labored for a few completely different corporations traded 5-year, 10-year notes, treasuries, after which began buying and selling corn, beans, and wheat.
Type of acquired extra into my wheelhouse the place I form of knew the lingo and will come again residence and speak to people. And I met a variety of actually good individuals within the trade in Chicago, a variety of actually good people who form of took me beneath their wing and taught me a variety of issues and helped me most likely keep away from a variety of errors. And I acquired fortunate in a couple of issues and made some respectable investments. Some issues not so fortunate, you already know. I inform lots of people the one cause I’m on stage is hell I most likely made extra errors than most folk. So I believe that’s vital and to try to study from these issues and assist move it alongside.
So, you already know, that’s actually form of the longer the background. I nonetheless talk and speak with a variety of my associates from the board. Then I got here again to Kansas Metropolis Board of Commerce labored for some time and nonetheless speak to a variety of completely different individuals contained in the trade on each coasts, LA, and I’ve been to New York and into the Boston space. And so yeah.
Meb: How lengthy have you ever been writing and publishing “The Van Trump Report?”
Kevin: Most likely about, I might say it’s about 12 or 13 years, possibly a contact longer. You already know, I actually simply began writing it I went via a rattling oh, seminar or one thing and a few individuals have been form of difficult the viewers to do extra journaling, private journaling to assemble my ideas and bearings a little bit bit about…I assume, for my sake, it was extra what I used to be doing investment-wise what I used to be doing trading-wise.
After which, such as you, I had two younger youngsters on the time so it was parenting and buying and selling and, you already know, relationship. My spouse and I have fun our thirtieth wedding ceremony anniversary arising. So there was simply a variety of rising. Hell, we had some ups, we had some downs. I had some companies go broke. We form of acquired caught up within the housing fallout we have been doing…I used to be backing some people who have been performing some residence constructing and growing.
So I simply had a variety of issues happening, a variety of balls within the air so I form of simply began journaling placing down my very own ideas. And I began to ship it out to a few of my buddies as a result of they have been like, “What the hell are you doing? You already know, what do you bought going?” And the following factor it began circulating again to me, and it was coming from guys over at Goldman and Morgan completely different locations, I’m like, “Shit.” I inform my spouse I mentioned, “Possibly I can cost for this, and possibly I’ll cost for it, see if anyone needs to learn it.” And everybody’s like, “Ah, no person’s going to wish to examine your youngsters and your theories on life and your…” Hell it form of took off.
So, you already know, it wasn’t supposed, I by no means deliberate on writing something. I imply, it has helped me turn into a greater dealer and investor as a result of I’ve to suppose via my ideas much more clear and much more disciplined.
Meb: You touched on a variety of issues I’d wish to broaden on. However a part of it, you already know, I believe letting the persona come out, lets it’s much more relatable. I imply, most individuals are usually not going to wish to learn like an funding financial institution deep dive, prefer it’s much more enjoyable. And, you already know, people relate to tales and narratives coming from somebody who’s speaking about their failures, or their enterprise, or their, you already know, youngsters and all the opposite dumb stuff we do, is I believe an effective way to go about it.
But in addition, like one of many issues I like is wanting again, you already know, virtually as like a diary too. You already know, we’re like, hey, what have been we speaking about 5 years in the past when XYZ occurred or 15 years in the past, I bear in mind I mentioned that. Man, that was actually sensible or silly or no matter it may need been. However you do a really in-depth and considerate letter.
Let’s discuss form of what the world appears to be like like right this moment. We speak loads about investing on this podcast and have been speaking loads about commodities, actual belongings, and farmland investing for years partially due to my background, and partially as a result of I believe it’s actually fascinating. But in addition, many and a lot of the panorama doesn’t discuss it.
Now that having been mentioned, “Barron’s” cowl story this weekend, which can be a sign, was about farmland investing. So I believe we’ve come full circle. However speak to me a little bit bit in regards to the transition, you already know, from pit dealer to excited about commodities and form of what’s your framework? How do you consider them right this moment? And what’s your funding form of course of with regards to excited about that world?
Kevin: So principally, I primarily commerce corn, beans, wheat. I commerce a variety of completely different energies, simply I’m invested in ethanol, crops, CNG fuelling services. So a variety of these issues, feedlot. So a variety of the issues and the substances that go into among the companies that we’re invested in from the ag-tech world via the power area. I used to be dealer and traded fairly closely, you already know, via the years, so I form of really feel like I’ve considerably of a possibly of an edge or have made sufficient errors that I can hold myself from getting overly crazily tripped up.
However I begin daily with a macro view, the macro perspective, what’s taking place globally with the world. You already know, we’ve realized within the final 10, 15, 20 years, I imply, the markets have modified dramatically as a result of you could have much more fund curiosity and much more cross hedging. And with the cross hedging you could have much more larger gamers and larger cash gamers, you already know, looking for methods to bypass and get a greater risk-reward ratio. So they could be lengthy gold brief crude, they could have completely different varied buying and selling methods.
I bear in mind one 12 months ADM was corn and the wheat market was simply racing increased, and no person might actually determine what the hell was taking place as a result of we weren’t actually having a standard provide and demand story. However we have been going right into a polar vortex and there have been a variety of headlines a couple of polar vortex hitting within the winter. So I used to be getting a variety of calls from a couple of of my hedge fund buddies in Boston and out in your manner.
And so they’re like, “Hey, you already know, we have been considering, if this polar vortex hits, that’s most likely actually going to disrupt first-quarter earnings as a result of it’s going to have, you already know, half the East Coast all hunkered down. And, you already know, how can we…” as a result of we have been simply coming off huge positive factors out there and it’s like, “How can we hedge a few of this?” They wished to get lengthy the wheat market as a result of they figured the wheat market was probably the most delicate to a polar vortex, you already know, you get a large…you already know, some sort of winterkill on the wheat crop, the wheat crop goes to pop and take off to the upside.
So there was a variety of enjoyable cash coming in shopping for the gentle crimson winter wheat contracts to try to cross hedge into an fairness portfolio. And it was simply loopy, it was baffling among the larger gamers within the area as a result of they’d not seen that previously. And we’re seeing much more of that now, whether or not it’s into pure…no matter market it might be, you’re seeing extra cross hedging, extra fascinating trades, the spreads, that was once conventional unfold sort performs aren’t conventional anymore.
You possibly can form of get in hassle if you look again in historical past and suppose, wow, this shouldn’t do that, or this could try this. Simply lot extra high-frequency buying and selling, much more algorithmic buying and selling, and that’s modified among the area a little bit bit.
Meb: In case you have been to characterize form of your method, is it principally basic and kind of discretionary? Is it you contain technical kind of, you already know, inputs?
Kevin: I began off form of buying and selling basically then I scrapped that after I was younger and have become a technical guru. And the way DeMark was traded on the time DeMark was in place. I used to be Larry William’s dealer for a few years, and I put in trades for Larry for some time.
So, I imply, I had turn into very properly versed within the technical aspect and began buying and selling technically. Hell, I didn’t have nice success with that both so it turned extra of a mix. I might say principally basically pushed with technical evaluation definitely getting used as a software for entry exit factors, total development issues of that nature.
So yeah, principally a mix and actually principally anymore what cash move is doing with the funds? I imply, what’s their urge for food? And what’s…you already know. You will be as proper because the day is lengthy however in the end, you bought to be proper to market, you already know.
Meb: Yeah. I figured we begin with wheat as that’s most likely closest to my coronary heart. We did a podcast not too long ago with an creator who simply put out a ebook referred to as “Oceans of Grain,” which is form of about Professor Georgia, form of how wheat has helped form civilization and financial progress throughout the globe, which is fairly enjoyable.
However, you already know, wheat, for a few years of this previous decade hasn’t been doing a complete lot. After which, you already know, what’s it beginning form of post-pandemic time began inching up after which simply form of went bananas previously 12 months. Give us a little bit perspective, what does it appear to be now? What was the expertise of the previous 12 months happening, and your ideas?
Kevin: Yeah, I imply, we raced increased clearly, off the, you already know, Russian invasion of Ukraine, and actually form of added gas to the hearth and took us to some highs we haven’t seen in lots of, a few years. A few wheat contracts posted all-time highs. So you actually had some huge fund pursuits and a few huge fund motion.
However in the previous few months, you’ve had the funds form of again off their urge for food for commodities, simply in essence or, often because they suppose that we’re going to have worry of a world recession. So some sort of, you already know, strolling again their urge for food for commodities has actually form of put the hammer on among the grain markets, particularly wheat. We’re struggling as a rustic to export our exports…we’ve turn into what we name in our enterprise, we turn into the ancillary provider of wheat.
Individuals wish to go to Costco and Walmart first, which on this case is Russia, the Black Sea, and elements of Europe. So they appear to get low cost wheat from these sources, and if they will’t get that and they should completely safe delivered, they have a tendency to then come to the U.S. as an ancillary provider. So we’ve misplaced quite a lot of market share on the planet as a wheat exporter.
And the energy of the U.S. greenback has turn into a headwind as of late and so exports haven’t been all that nice. We want to consider exports are going to enhance as we transfer ahead, there’s a variety of unknowns, you already know. This humanitarian grain hall, the so-called humanitarian grain hall is popping out of Ukraine. How a lot are they really going to get exported? We consider it’s not very a lot.
However the headline merchants and the algorithmic pc fashions, you already know, it’s weighing pretty closely. And a variety of the bulls have exited from the fund aspect, they’re on the sidelines you bought a little bit bit extra brief curiosity in taking part in out from the funds. And, you already know, they’re tending to make use of it as a cross edge for world…being brief as a world recession hedge.
Meb: While you form of commerce at this level in your profession to the extent you’re is it historically via direct futures? Are you buying and selling choices? Are you buying and selling underlying equities? Like how do you historically go in regards to the expression of a commerce?
Kevin: So I simply commerce straight futures most likely 80, 90% of the time. I’ll commerce choices on futures, I’m lengthy some out of the cash … calls, for the time being simply they acquired overwhelmed up fairly severely. I ought to say in the previous few years with Robin Hood and a few of these different platforms which have gotten extra of the youthful youngsters concerned, you already know, there are just a few excessive swings and choices there. There’s some particular alternative with the vol and the volatility that’s on the market if you happen to’re paying consideration. I imply, a few of them actually get overwhelmed, you already know, they only get overdone to at least one aspect or the opposite. So there are positively some alternatives for choices gamers.
Meb: What’s the form of the remainder of the ag area that you just’re taking a look at corn, beans, is it form of a narrative of extra of the identical with wheat, are there huge variations? Inform us what you’re seeing.
Kevin: You already know, you could have a little bit bit extra of a requirement story if you happen to go to the beans aspect of issues, you already know, we raced employed within the final couple of weeks, after which we’ve given most of that again right here as of late. However the bean story is the world’s going to…and there’s actually no alternative for the upper protein beans. So that you develop soybeans, you ship that to a processing plant they crush that for meal and bean oil.
Notoriously meal…the years’ previous meal was at all times the chief of a bull run as a result of the oil was form of regarded as a byproduct, proper? So you utilize the meal to feed the pigs, the poultry, the livestock and there’s actually no alternative for the excessive protein. Corn, when corn costs get tremendous excessive they’ll begin to, you already know, substitute wheat in, and wheat will are available. However so far as meal there’s actually not a giant substitute.
So the world wants the meal to feed the livestock, we’re going to proceed to see, we consider, rising excessive protein demand from the livestock aspect. However now swiftly, you’re getting a giant push for oil from the cooking aspect and from the biofuel aspect. So you bought a giant onslaught of cash coming into the U.S. or being moved by buyers right here within the U.S. to create extra crush services or extra services to create extra biofuel, aviation gas, issues of that nature.
So we predict we’re going to see fairly a couple of extra soybean processing services open up. We predict with that you just’re going to see a much bigger improve within the variety of acres for soybeans are most likely going to be transformed extra planting of soybeans as we transfer ahead. Hopefully, you already know, provide, that is at all times difficult in these commodity markets as a result of hell, you get a giant story about demand. Subsequent factor you already know you planted too many acres so provide outweighs demand, then you definately form of try to rebalance and see the way it shakes out.
However, you already know, we suspect over the following 5 years, you’re going to see a fairly good improve within the variety of soybean acres. Due to the actual fact we’re going to construct out fairly a couple of of those new crush services and these new services to provide extra issues with beans. The bean story is sweet it’s acquired a superb demand story.
Corn is a bit more difficult. Climate-wise, I believe corn, you already know, proper right here you’re in a little bit little bit of a climate market. We’re simply previous pollination interval. The corn is a bit more tough to develop. So worldwide wheat is the simplest to develop. So most individuals begin off and develop wheat whether or not it’s in Ukraine, Russia, the bottom facilitates wheat progress. Subsequent might be you come into rice or beans and issues of that nature. After which corn is a little bit bit harder to develop, a little bit extra delicate, acquired a little bit extra points, some issues can occur, timing of the climate is fairly vital.
So, you already know, we’ve acquired an important story climate is clearly going to impression the corn crop each right here and in South America an important deal. And Chinese language demand, I assume stays the massive query mark on each and the conflict in Ukraine. You already know, Ukraine’s a serious exporter of corn, fourth largest on the planet behind Brazil and Argentina and ourselves, and the way that performs out goes to be a giant query. In order that and Chinese language demand are form of the driving issue.
Meb: Yeah, you’re considered one of my favourite follows on Twitter for the ag charts. So, listeners, you possibly can click on the present observe hyperlinks and comply with Kevin on Twitter as a result of he produces a variety of nice charts on the ag world. Whereas we’re right here China, you already know, has been such a serious impression on all issues commodity associated for the previous decade. You already know, it’s exhausting I believe for lots of buyers to disentangle form of what’s happening versus the headlines and what’s actually form of their affect is.
The place will we stand right this moment? Is it one thing that, you already know, the entire COVID expertise and the lockdowns has been impacting their form of insatiable demand for commodities, or what’s the updates there?
Kevin: Nicely, a couple of years again most likely when President Trump was elected early on, we had gotten some intel or perception from a few of our sources in Washington that there have been a few completely different papers going round and various things, you already know, that China is taking and swinging a little bit in another way and taking a distinct method in direction of the West. When individuals had landed from the federal government that repeatedly they might be taken to sure locations in China, you’re form of taken to see what you’re presupposed to see. And, you already know, and the way issues are presupposed to look in your excursions, and what you possibly can report, what you possibly can’t report.
It was the primary time ever that we’d gotten again intel that they’re making an attempt to pivot away from a Western eating regimen. There was a giant push a very long time, they have been turning into extra westernized. I’d most likely say 4 or 5 years in the past, we began getting intel, that that’s a giant shift from, you already know, the best degree of the Chinese language authorities, they wish to shift away from Western-type society or Western diets, issues of that nature.
That makes us a little bit involved, a little bit frightened, you already know, have we peaked to some extent the demand aspect of issues? Are they going to stroll again a few of this protein manufacturing that we thought was going to be vital. We thought there was going to be a much bigger push for cattle, beef, livestock issues of that nature. I’m not so certain of that anymore. They could be strolling that again to some extent, they appear to have loads larger chip on their shoulder in regards to the West. Hell, as we’ve seen this week with the Pelosi touchdown in Taiwan, and among the different issues.
So Chinese language demand is worrisome. We positively consider they’re making an attempt to do extra offers with South America, they wish to try to, you already know, push their belt highway goal. Clearly, they wish to try to knock the U.S. greenback out because the world’s world main forex. I believe that Russia and China are each, you already know, considerably in cahoots to attempt to make that play. It’s comprehensible why.
I believe that’s going to be some main competition shifting ahead over the following a few years is, you already know, will they get the greenback out of that place? Will they not? I’m probably not certain. However it’s worrisome, you already know, from our viewpoint, or from our perspective. So, yeah, there’s a variety of shifting elements inside China politically, which have modified over the past 4 to 5 years, which make issues much more fascinating.
Meb: As you consider the greenback, you already know, definitely the final 12 months…we do a variety of polls on Twitter, and considered one of them was, you already know, asking buyers do you put money into actual belongings in any respect in any kind? So we’re speaking commodities, we’re speaking actual property, you already know, REITs. I mentioned, ignore your home, however simply actual belongings elsewhere, even suggestions I put on this class. And the overwhelming majority had little or no in commodities.
And I usually spotlight and asterisk this and say my Canadian and Australian associates are most likely the exception as a result of they are usually very pure resource-focused. However the final 12 months, and significantly this 12 months, with inventory and bond markets, I really feel like has introduced that dialogue again to the forefront, you already know, excessive inflation. And positively, for the primary 4 or so months of the 12 months, commodities have been simply going bananas, most of them, some weren’t. Valuable metals notoriously have lagged.
However how a lot of a task does form of the massive image financial, you already know, form of play in your world? You already know, take into consideration inflation, take into consideration the U.S. greenback, which what I believe was a shock to many with the greenback ripping after which commodities additionally on the similar time. Is that one thing you spend a variety of time excited about, little bit, think about, not a lot?
Kevin: Positive. You already know, I’ve realized many, many instances many helpful…don’t struggle the Fed, you already know, you actually wish to try to be on the identical aspect as the house crew so far as what the federal government is making an attempt to do, or what the powers that be on the planet try to do.
So I believe you positively have to start out off…that’s what I mentioned. Begin off daily making an attempt to get a greater understanding of the macro perspective, you already know, what will we consider the greenback right here? What will we take into consideration charges, rates of interest, long run debt? The place are we going to go? And the place’s the cash going to move? I imply, you simply actually need to comply with the cash, the place’s the cash going to move? And the place is it making an attempt to maneuver to subsequent? And that’s actually the secret. So yeah, positively give it some thought religiously.
Meb: As you’ve form of talked to buyers and been sending out this e-mail over time. Give us a sentiment examine on form of the responses and suggestions you’re getting this 12 months versus years previous or simply even over everything. I imply, I believe for me, personally, you already know, being concerned in kind of the institutional investing world for some time, you form of see the ebbs and flows of sentiment, you already know, commodities in that a part of the world acquired a ton of curiosity within the early a part of the 2000s, you already know, submit, kind of web bubble.
After which, you already know, all these huge establishments have been shifting in and indexing and allocations of futures as an asset class. After which it form of seemingly misplaced curiosity considerably over a lot of years. After which farmland has form of, you already know, at completely different intervals, in addition to timber and all that. What’s been the vibe out of your readership and form of individuals you work together with over, you already know, the previous variety of years?
Kevin: The vibe just about as I see total, I argue this with everybody. I assume it relies upon what your goal is, you already know. My goal wasn’t to do that to make any cash. My goal was simply to do that to place my very own ideas down and try to determine what the hell I used to be doing and attempt to turn into a greater dealer, and like I mentioned, a greater mum or dad, a greater father, a greater, you already know, husband all of the 9, all these issues. So I actually wasn’t doing it to ever make cash. I actually by no means had any advertisers, didn’t have anybody promote, didn’t take any promoting cash. So, you already know, I’ve a distinct play.
I believe the vibe is doom and gloom sells. I imply, the people who push doom and gloom make a shitload of cash and other people wish to hear it. They wish to hear conspiracy theories, they wish to hear doom and gloom, they wish to hear the world’s ending, greenback goes to go misplaced and purchase shotguns, canned items, and gold. And, you already know, that sells, it actually does promote.
And a variety of my readers I’ll get responses on a regular basis like, you already know, “My gosh, why are you so optimistic? Why are you so…?” And so they nonetheless subscribe and so they nonetheless take it, however they might quite hear me be doom and gloom. And, you already know, just like the sky is falling and form of soar on board the bandwagons of the conspiracy theories. And I simply by no means have. I’ve by no means been a kind of individuals.
I acquired off a name yesterday, some associates of mine, a few billionaire buyers, and so they wished me to be on a name with a man. I imply, and he was speaking the greenback that is down and that’s the greenback is gone, and all of the loopy conspiracies that you could possibly consider, you already know. It’s entertaining I imply, they positively get your consideration. And I’m not saying that possibly sooner or later, they gained’t be proper. However I simply don’t suppose we’re going to roll over right here in the USA and simply play lifeless and fall to items multi function deadly shot right here.
So I’m not a giant believer, a fan of it. You ask me what the vibe is, I believe the vibe is notoriously individuals wish to be bearish, they wish to suppose the sky is falling. I believe the increasingly more social media continues to push and separate all of us, you already know, into our personal little lanes and channels. I inform everybody, I imply, we didn’t have very many threads or materials of threads that saved us all collectively to start with. I imply, there’s solely, you already know, a couple of threads that hold us collectively as a nation.
And the algorithms, sadly, outline us by what we’re towards not what we consider in collectively collectively, you already know. Something you click on, the algorithms are going to outline you by your clicks, and what you want, or what you hover over what number of seconds. And, you already know, sadly, we’re all being put into these little packing containers about what we’re form of towards so everybody, you already know, has these points now. And I believe it’s going to be difficult, however that’s the entire rattling market.
Meb: Once we see you begin to get actually destructive, then we’re going to begin to run for the hills, we’ll know that it’ll be the Armageddon. You already know, as somebody who has been a longtime observer of form of commodity and ag markets, speak to me a little bit bit in regards to the modifications you’ve seen. And a part of this query to me is, as a extra informal observer, is partially the function expertise is taking part in.
And so inflation isn’t just one factor it’s a variety of various things. Some areas are disinflationary or outright deflationary, some areas are extremely inflationary. However to me, at all times, you already know, I’m an optimist like you’re, I’ll not come throughout that manner. However I’m an optimist and expertise to me and the relentless human progress. However significantly as utilized to ag and commodity area what are you seeing? Is it an space that, you already know, is form of incremental, or swiftly it’s like leaps and bounds in your world? Is it one thing you put money into any manner? Give us an outline.
Kevin: Our household, my spouse, and our children have been form of angel buyers in a variety of ag-tech startups. We’re form of founding group with iSelect. iSelect does a variety of ag-tech investing from a startup perspective and we have been founding in there and form of put cash on them. And varied completely different ones like I mentioned AcreTrader now AcrePro, and Benson Hill. We’ve many alternative ones that we’ve invested in via the 12 months.
I see a bit sooner or later in ag-tech and in among the ag-tech startups. It’s most likely I might say extra incremental. I believe you bought to start out…you already know, we begin in our investing thesis with the demographics. And I believe you look right here at demographics if you wish to return to the boomers who have been most likely probably the most influential, what they created, you already know, whether or not it was huge field shops or the quick meals.
Now you take a look at the millennials, they don’t need quick meals essentially they’re extra into understanding the place their meals comes from. Larger finish sort meals, your Chipotle your various kinds of factor. Sure, they are going to pay $8 for Starbucks espresso or $9. They don’t need to have, you already know, a 50 cent espresso. And sure, they are going to pay $10 for a burrito at Chipotle, and they’ll spend much less on one thing else. Their spending habits are a lot completely different. Meals is essential to the millennials. So we see this as a giant shift in agriculture.
In agriculture for years, it was once the farmer, the producer grew, regardless of the hell they wished to develop, and also you the patron picked from what they grew. Now, that’s altering dramatically. So now, the patron is just about dictating what’s going to be grown, the way it’s going to be grown, what chemical compounds they need on it, what chemical compounds they don’t need on it.
We suspect as blockchain turns into increasingly more prevalent, you’re going to see blockchain come throughout the farms and also you’re going to know precisely what’s in your crop. You’re going to know what chemical compounds are put in it, the place it’s been…the rationale they need blockchain is just this. You possibly can bear in mind again when Chipotle they’d the difficulty and so they have been getting the breakouts of E.coli.
Nicely shit, they wish to know precisely what farm it got here out of, what area, what row, and who was selecting it, they wish to know doing that. In order that’s form of the place that got here from. And so they wish to comprehend it instantly to allow them to get the issue stopped and solved shortly.
Like Gaylon Lawrence is considered one of our associates that does a variety of companies, we do some enterprise with them. Gaylon owns most likely extra row crop acreage than anybody in the USA. And so they put in a brand new cotton gin. And so like Patagonia, among the different people who promote the live performance tees and issues like that, it’s form of, properly, the youngsters wish to know the place the cotton got here from, and what farm, and, you already know, form of what was on…they wish to have a narrative behind it and we’re seeing that increasingly more.
So that they already are tagging and block chaining a variety of their cotton that goes via the mills. We’re seeing that with rice now. A number of the rice is form of getting blockchain. Chipotle solely needs to purchase a few our prospects provide the vast majority of the rice for Chipotle. They solely need sure…and comprehensible they need sure issues.
Benson Hill is one other nice instance. So Benson Hill began…they have been going to be just like the Amazon World Providers however for the seed trade. They’ve a bunch of scientists that they’ve taken out of…and gotten from different corporations which are among the finest scientists, and so they use CRISPR expertise to create their very own seeds.
Now, Unimaginable, Past these individuals contract with Benson to create a selected seed, that’s the proper selection for his or her meals, proper energy, proper style, the precise palette texture. And so then Benson is ready to use their crew and so they use CRISPR expertise create the precise bean. Then we discover the grower…and assist them discover growers that may develop that bean particularly for that finish person.
It by no means was once that manner. I imply, farmer would simply develop no matter, and the tip customers form of left to choose what they need. Now you’re seeing the precise finish person, the producer, actually form of inform you what they need and the way they need it. And so they’re contracting with farmers to provide greenhouses, vertical farms within the cities, you already know, in a few of these vertical areas. And that’s turn into very, very fascinating. So we predict there’s going to be a giant evolutionary shift and alter.
Meb: So, you already know, as you speak to buyers, let’s say not farmers who’ve been on this world, however individuals who say, look, I acquired a U.S. 60/40 portfolio, I’m involved in getting publicity to your world. I think about you’re getting extra of these inquiries now than possibly a couple of years in the past. However what do you form of say to those individuals? Is there a typical response, or recommendation, or how you can form of suppose and method this complete ecosystem of commodities farming, investing, ag-tech, all these items? Is it simply learn my letter daily and stand up to hurry or how do you speak to them?
Kevin: Our household we simply form of pivoted and opened up our personal…we opened Van Trump Farm & Land as a result of we’ve seen increasingly more curiosity such as you mentioned. We partnered with Carter over at AcreTrader. And so yeah, so we partnered up with Carter, I believe the press launch will come out in a month or two or one thing.
My spouse and I, we’ve been in the true property enterprise our entire lives the vast majority of our grownup life, I ought to say constructing, growing, and shopping for and promoting actual property via our circle of relatives funds and belief. However we determined, I wished to pivot and get extra particular into the farmland aspect as a result of we’re seeing a variety of inquiries questions from lots of people from LA, lots of people from different elements of the nation.
We form of break it down into three teams. I say individuals are involved in what I name legacy land, that’s the place they wish to take their cash, put it into an funding in land, and hold it in possibly a perpetual belief that by no means leaves the household.
I had a pal one time he was a lawyer and this was a cool concept. He had a shopper that they’d about 500 acres, and him and his spouse would exit and plant about 40, 50 acres a 12 months in black walnuts. And this was the household’s inheritance and the youngsters inherited like 500 acres of black walnut. I imply, it’s price thousands and thousands of {dollars}. And they’d give, you already know, every…I believe they have been two daughters and a brother. And every considered one of them acquired a sure part, you already know.
You already know, if you happen to go reduce down the tree, or you possibly can harvest the walnuts annually and promote the black walnuts. You could possibly reduce down the tree and promote the walnut wooden for fairly a considerable sum of money. The rule within the belief was replant the timber and also you’re doing good factor. So we name these legacy-type performs.
And we’ve associates, wealthier associates that like to purchase farms or working….or farm to deliver the household again. Both the household comes again at harvest every year, they arrive again at planting. It form of simply brings the household again collectively as the youngsters go off and so they have grandkids and children. So we’d take a look at issues as a legacy sort of play. We’ve others which are involved in working farms.
So we’ve had a number of investor associates that actually simply wish to personal working farms which are rising to corn, beans, wheat. A few of the farms have become photo voltaic farms they’re getting huge lease cash for photo voltaic, wind, power, issues of that nature. So some are simply trying to diversify into working farms.
After which we’ve others the third class that we name is a kind of an ag enterprise. We’ve had some individuals are available and switch a farm right into a whiskey farm. And so now they’re rising corn to provide whiskey. And so they’re rising all types of various styles of corn from all over the world, they acquired these cool copper vats. It’s about an hour exterior of Chicago the one which we’re associates with. And buses present up on the market and so they’re making extra off promoting swag and merch and excursions of the farm and excursions of the whiskey operation, it’s fairly cool.
We’ve acquired others which have turned some farms into tulip farms or locations to take the youngsters and, you already know, mattress and breakfast sort performs or issues. However yeah, so these are form of the three issues that we’re taking a look at. So these are various ways in which individuals can get truly bodily invested within the ag world. The others can be on the board via investment-type performs, via ETFs, via futures choices, issues of that nature.
Meb: You already know, one of many issues that the “Barron’s” article highlighted, which we’ve talked about for a very long time, is that as a proportion of the worldwide public portfolio, so if you wish to exit and purchase all the general public belongings, shares, bonds, and many others. One of many greatest lacking items has at all times been farmland. It’s actually exhausting to get publicity via public securities the way in which that you’d via particular person or group farmland, precise properties, or funds as a result of it’s owned a lot by people and teams. However I believe that’s altering, you already know, extra not too long ago. However, you already know, individuals are seeing it’s actually an important asset class that usually doesn’t correlate, you already know, a lot to the rest on the planet.
Kevin: Yeah, a variety of the funds that…so we advise a variety of funds that decision wish to purchase farm floor and the play is simply merely this the look is, you already know, 30 years from now’s the bottom going to be price greater than it’s right this moment? Most likely. And alongside the strains of that 30 years, you’re going to clip some coupons, often on years you could have extremely worthwhile yields, you already know, some years you won’t clip your coupons some years, you could, you already know. However over the course of time the longevity of it yeah, protected most likely longer-term funding.
Meb: The problem listeners on the operational aspect, you already know, don’t ignore the ache within the ass facet, particularly getting in, you already know, with no expertise. It’s not like a turn-key. There’s a variety of romance with regards to farming I believe and being on this idyllic get again to the land, significantly in the course of the pandemic, I believe lots of people have, and then you definately notice the precise day-to-day is a bit more work than most. A little bit extra bugs possibly for some, a little bit extra critters, however very rewarding. I like it as properly.
On the institutional aspect, you already know, we see the headlines over the previous 12 months we see hey, Invoice Gates is huge into farmland, it appears to form of go in cycles. Is that this an space that you just suppose is form of…is it rising curiosity from the massive dudes as properly, is it form of throughout the board? And be at liberty to reply this as a part of this, like, how a lot of that is exterior of our borders? You already know, I imply, it’s clearly a world market, however farmland investing, you possibly can most likely purchase floor loads cheaper in Argentina, or, you already know, different locations than in Illinois. How are the establishments excited about this? And are individuals wanting overseas as properly with the greenback up a lot?
Kevin: Yeah, most likely. You already know, we personal farms in South America via companions with some teams, our associates I ought to say in farms in Brazil, and a little bit bit in Argentina and various things of that nature. However huge studying curves, huge. Appeared nice on paper, seemed great in idea, and in follow, not so great. And I inform everybody, that’s the case with most likely numerous issues I say, you already know, whether or not it’s golf, sports activities, or investing or farming. We go into it initially, considering it’s principally science, you already know, however there’s a variety of artwork concerned on the farms.
So we shaped a gaggle of farmers that we went in and purchased some floor in Brazil, for instance. We have been about two hours out of Teresina and up by the mouth of the Amazon. There you’re getting about 70 inches of rainfall yearly the place hell, out in Kansas within the elements you’re getting 12, 13 inches of annual rainfall.
So the play was we purchased the land, initially, we have been going to develop eucalyptus timber on the land. You already know, the eucalyptus tree will develop in regards to the 50, 60 toes within the air and also you do it 7 completely different instances 7 completely different cycles.
Nicely, we begin to look extra from a farming aspect due to all of the rainfall like man, that is going to be nice. We’ll begin off we’ll develop rice, we’ll develop wheat, and beans get the soil proper, clear the fields. Hell, you already know, nice in idea, however in follow, it was simply not nice. We had supposed engineers are available, needed to put in…it was like pioneering. Needed to put in roads, properly, we get again there a month or two after they put the roads in, we’re like “Shit, this isn’t going to work.” And the engineer “What do you imply?” It’s like there was no peak to the roads.
Issues that we take without any consideration right here, they didn’t have the roads topped in any respect. The roads have been simply tremendous flat, and no ditches. So it’s just like the water is simply going to pool up within the highway. It’s like no, no, this can’t be attainable. Issues we take like rolling up fence line or pulling up fence line from the place they’d. I imply, it will take these individuals weeks and weeks the place it will take our boys right here like days to do it.
So, you already know, I believe issues we take without any consideration, we thought two plus two is 4, and it was going to be straightforward, and there was going to be a science to it. We neglect the artwork aspect of it identical to you talked about. There’s a complete lot of artwork that goes into making issues profitable. So we’ve had no luck. I’ve by no means been on the successful aspect of farms in different international locations. And only a few of my associates have both whether or not it was in elements of Ukraine as a result of there have been some loopy tales with the Russians over there. South America, it’s powerful, you already know.
So, yeah, I’m hesitant to place any extra money exterior the U.S., with regards to farming and agriculture, simply because there’s a lot extra artwork concerned on this equation than many individuals wish to give it credit score. So do I see extra huge cash coming into the area? Yeah, positively. I believe huge cash, sees the writing on the wall. You see fragmentation, it’s a extremely fragmented space or pool no completely different than say Sam Walton again within the day with five-and-dimes, you already know.
So wherever you could have fragmentation and excessive fragmentation, and high-profit margins at instances, there’s alternative. And, you already know, personal fairness and institutional cash sniffs that out and actually, you most likely don’t have any better fragmentation than you do within the ag world at the moment. I imply, owned by numerous mother and pops, you already know, a variety of mother and pops. You bought a giant wave of expertise approaching, a variety of mother and pops that aren’t actual open to altering or studying new expertise and new methods, it’d blowout.
You already know, there’s a variety of roll-ups going down, there’s a variety of consolidation going down and larger cash is coming in to make that play. I do know rural America is form of bucking at that a little bit bit. I ought to say possibly loads in some locations. But it surely’s form of the character of each enterprise, you already know, each enterprise trade we’ve ever seen, it form of takes the identical evolution. And on the finish, you begin to get this huge consolidation interval. So I believe Gates, you already know, I believe he’s right in a few of his considering.
Meb: What have you ever realized or modified your thoughts about or, you already know, as you speak to buyers moving into this area form of frequent errors, you already know. The one which I at all times discuss with regards to angel investing, or actually any kind of investing is individuals, I at all times say, you already know, hey, child steps, proper? Such as you don’t need to cannonball into the pool with all of your cash on day one and put all of your chips on a single wager. However significantly with regards to your world, are there some errors that you just suppose are simply averted or which are frequent for brand new entrants?
Kevin: Yeah, you already know, I believe it’s much like like, Kevin O’Leary places it. I really like his analogy once we talked at a pair completely different conferences. You already know, you bought to ask your self, initially, how shortly do I would like these troops to come back again residence? In case your {dollars} are troops I imply, how shortly…what number of am I going to ship out on this battle? And the way shortly are they going to come back again residence? And are they going to come back again residence lacking legs and arms? And, you already know, is it going to only be a horrific story?
So, you already know, for me, I believe that’s form of the massive magic query with regards to the farming aspect or investing in farmland. You already know, if you happen to’re doing it for a household, your loved ones functions and to maintain your loved ones collectively lengthy, lengthy, long run, and to maintain the farmland itself in a kind of perpetual belief, you already know, actually you’re not that frightened about that you just’re doing it extra for different issues.
Now, if you happen to’re making an attempt to actually present constant annualized returns on a faster timescale, you already know, that’s most likely going to be much more tough within the farm area as a result of there’s so many unknowns that may occur 12 months in, 12 months out. You’re out in California and also you go purchase an almond farm and the following factor you’re battling fires which are throughout and throughout your farm. And also you’re going to have some points, you’re going to have various things occur. You purchase a farm in Kansas or Nebraska, the place you possibly can’t drill for water anymore, and also you get a large drought sweeps via, you’re going to have some points.
There’s only a fairly substantial and sizable studying curve to an actual working farm. In case you’re making an attempt to get in there, make cash the following 12 months, two years, three years, you already know, I believe that’s most likely a fallacy to some extent.
Meb: As you look again in your profession buying and selling, there have been a variety of trades I think about. We at all times finish with this query. What’s been your most memorable funding good, unhealthy, in between, however simply the one that stands proud in your mind?
Kevin: I attempted to discard…you already know, I actually strive to not sear them into my mind an excessive amount of. I believe I used to be studying…we have been speaking to a psychologist, a buying and selling psychologist they have been interviewing, and did a examine on a bunch of the highest merchants. And so they mentioned, “Man, it’s bizarre that the highest merchants normally wish to play golf or poker.” And so they mentioned they’re considering it’s as a result of the perfect golfers neglect in regards to the final gap, you already know.
In case you play golf and fear about that final gap, the place you simply made an eight or one thing then the remainder of the spherical begins to unwind. Similar manner sort in poker, you bought to neglect in regards to the final one. You already know, we attempt to neglect in regards to the final commerce and I strive not to consider the great ones, and check out not to consider the actually unhealthy ones and simply study from the expertise.
However, you already know, we have been early in Tesla for the precise causes. Wasn’t tremendous early in Bitcoin, however we have been pretty early in Bitcoin form of simply on the momentum play. And it’s been good, it was good, you already know, the more moderen ones I assume that stick definitely, have been flawed. You already know, I hate greater than something turning…if you acquired a pleasant successful commerce and also you permit it to show again right into a loser that’s irritating as hell. I used to be on a name final evening speaking about that simply, you already know, that’s one that actually caught. It eats away on you psychologically.
And in buying and selling, it’s all…I imply, buying and selling is only a psychological recreation. I imply, if everybody was doing the very same factor, or if there was a technical system that labored, or if everybody was lined on the identical aspect, it’s actually not. We at all times mentioned…so we’d rent prop merchants in Chicago, and, you already know, prop merchants, simply, all people had a distinct philosophy and completely different idea and among the better of the perfect. We had some youngsters that didn’t even graduate highschool simply had GEDs, and so they printed cash for years. And so they have been simply tremendous good.
From a psychological standpoint, as soon as you place the place on, it’s like we are saying you possibly can decide any market put the place on, it’s the way you handle it from there. I imply, any dummy can handle a successful hand, it’s the way you handle the loser’s that’s actually going to in the end resolve your destiny as an investor.
Meb: I believe your remark in regards to the dropping trades. My favourite quote the previous few years was through Mark Yusko. And I can’t bear in mind who the originator was, however it’s “Each commerce makes you richer or wiser, however by no means each.” And so excited about these dropping trades and the way they impression your studying curve, I believe is beneficial in that manner.
I not too long ago had an angel funding that had finished rather well. It was a former podcast alum was the founding father of the corporate and it was like a 15x final result once they have been acquired, which is superior. However the issue was, in fact, of the final 12 months everybody can relate just like the buying firm was a public one and their inventory went down a bunch. So by the point the lockup expired, it was nonetheless like a 3 or four-bagger, which is superb, however it wasn’t a 15-bagger anymore.
So the psychological accounting, the anchoring, proper, is like, if you happen to advised me forward of time, would you be proud of tripling, quadrupling, I is perhaps like, oh, my god completely, like, superb final result. However relative to the place it was it’s such as you truly see how a lot you misplaced. So humorous, simply the way in which to consider it. However a pair extra actual fast ones earlier than we go, what’s FARMCON?
Kevin: FARMCON, is our annual occasion. So we began off about 15 years in the past, group of merchants myself, few previous associates simply got here to Kansas Metropolis to shoot shit. Actually, was the rationale simply to get collectively and drink some beers with small buddies and we inform one another our favourite trades, favourite investments for the upcoming 12 months, what we’re most closely invested in.
So then some guys began saying, “Hey, can I invite this pal? Can I invite this pal and this pal?” And subsequent factor we began to develop loads larger group. My spouse was placing it on for us form of, you already know, throwing in dealing with the catering and the various things and shit about 4 years in the past, I believe it become over 1200 individuals or one thing have been displaying up. Individuals coming from all completely different elements. We had individuals from, you already know, completely different international locations displaying up and various things like that.
So it’s an occasion. We referred to as it…then we modified the identify to FARMCON, simply form of spin on Comedian Con or one thing of that nature. However principally, it’s actually simply there’s everybody there from…there’s a number of billionaires within the room to there’s some guys there who’ve been there with bib overalls earlier than that simply personal big plots of floor.
And so we form of simply speak and have brainstorming classes about, you already know, what we see arising, the place we’re going to go together with issues. We had some crypto guys there final 12 months a variety of youthful youngsters that have been within the crypto area form of briefing us previous males. We wish to name it now previous bears and younger bulls, proper?
So once we have been in our 20s and 30s oh, man, we have been all fired up and we have been bullish all the things. You bear in mind the dot-com. Now my older associates, all of us which are 50 and older, we’re bearish and so we predict the entire world is coming to an finish and all these loopy investments we’re all bearish on. You already know, however it’s simply because we don’t know, we don’t perceive a variety of the issues, we don’t perceive the lingo, we don’t know loads.
In order that’s at FARMCON, we use that as a gathering. We’ve visitor audio system are available we’ve had some nice audio system previously. Individuals will try to problem our ideas and views and, you already know, assist hold us on our toes a little bit bit.
Meb: So it appears to be like prefer it’s January 4th, fifth. Extra importantly, listeners, the Broncos are taking part in the Chiefs, I consider on New 12 months’s Day which for the previous 5 years, I might have mentioned is a meaningless recreation for the Broncos at that time after they’ve I don’t know 8 to 10 losses. Nevertheless, I’m optimistic so in the event that they’re within the hunt, possibly we will get Broncos to FARMCON journey going. Kevin, this has been a blast. What’s the perfect web site place to go to seek out out what you’re writing and get individuals to subscribe what you’re as much as, hear your ideas?
Kevin: It’s the vantrumpreport.com. Simply vantrumpreport.com. Enroll 30-day free trial. We don’t ask for any bank cards something like that. In case you prefer it, you need it carry on getting it and if not, you already know hey, I perceive and I recognize the chance for the time.
Meb: Superior. Kevin, thanks a lot for becoming a member of us right this moment.
Kevin: I recognize it. Thanks for having me. You may have a superb one.
Meb: Podcast listeners we’ll submit present notes to right this moment’s dialog at mebfaber.com/podcast. In case you love the present, if you happen to hate it, shoot us suggestions at themebfabershow.com. We like to learn the opinions, please evaluate us on iTunes and subscribe the present anyplace good podcasts are discovered. Thanks for listening associates, and good investing.
