Tuesday Nov 8th, EIA STO Report
The Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) provides the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) near-term perspective on energy markets. Each month, the STEO provides forecasts through the end of the next calendar year for consumption, supply, trade, and prices across major fuel types. In addition, the STEO provides in-depth market analysis for crude oil, petroleum products, and natural gas markets. Although its emphasis is on U.S. energy markets, the STEO also includes forecasts for certain international liquid fuels markets.
Here’s a snippet of the last STO report giving us guidance on gasoline prices. Yes they did know about OPEC + production cuts by the time this report came out.
Last EIA STO Report
Wednesday Nov 9th, 10 year note auction
This is important because the 10 year notes are most closely associated with mortgages and consumer loans and economic sentiment. Higher yields generally mean less demand for these bonds.
To get a look at how these rates have been moving, here’s a picture for you.
10 year note auction
Thursday Nov 10th, CPI Report & Jobless Claims
Here are pictures showing expectations for that. Keep in mind headline includes food and energy
MOM Core
YOY Core
MOM Headline You can see for this one, the forecast are shooting much higher. Very concerning.
YOY Headline
Here’s a picture for jobless claims
Initial Jobless claims
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.
So as long as this number stays low, you can argue the job market is still strong. The picture shows the trend based on the last few months, and it’s really been going down from June to August numbers
Friday Nov 11th, Consumer Sentiment Report
Consumer sentiment is exactly what it say it is. It’s a measure of consumer sentiment done by the University of Michigan and they essentially create an index number that is measuring against a base year. In 1966 of Q1, the index number was established at 100. As these index numbers decline, it means consumer sentiment is falling.
Michigan consumer sentiment
Michigan 50 year consumer sentiment
Types of Questions asked
So why is this important? Well what is the key component in GDP? GDP is made up of four segments: Consumer Spending, Business investment, Government spending, Net exports
Here’s a picture showing how much consumer spending makes up in relation to GDP
GDP Q3 2022 Unchained
If you look at the right side at the unchained dollars (adjusted for inflation) 20.021 trillion in GDP and of that amount, 14.149 trillion was consumer spending. So yes, consumer sentiment is important.
Fed Speakers
Monday: Mester
Wednesday: Williams
Thursday: Walter, Mester, George, Williams
Hope this helps and have a great day.
