The Turks are in a celebratory temper following the collapse of the Syrian authorities which they helped orchestrate.
The Turkish web is overflowing at present with Erdoğan movies like this one…
They’re shared by proponents of Turkish nationalism, neo-Ottomanism and even territorial enlargement who reward Erdoğan for Türkiye’s position in Assad’s fall & the ejection of Russia & Iran from Syria
🇹🇷🇸🇾 pic.twitter.com/5sXFLVsYMc
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) December 7, 2024
There’s a perception that each one the refugees will likely be returned. The Kurds will likely be defeated as soon as and for all, and Turkish President Recep Erdogan will rule Syria by proxy. It’s exhausting to see how any of that occurs, nevertheless. As Moon of Alabama identified:
Türkiye had nurtured and pushed the al-Qaeda derived Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to take Aleppo. It didn’t count on it to go any additional. The autumn of Syria is now changing into an issue for Türkiye because the U.S. is taking management of it. Washington will attempt to use HTS for its personal pursuits that are, mentioned mildly, not essential suitable with no matter Türkiye might need to do.
A major goal for Türkiye are the Kurdish insurgents inside Türkiye and their help from the Kurds in Syria. Organized because the Syrian Democratic Forces the Kurds are sponsored and managed by the US. The SDF are already preventing Erdogan’s SNA and any additional Turkish intrusion into Syria will likely be confronted by them.
The SDF, supported by the U.S. occupation of east-Syria, is accountable for the key oil, fuel and wheat fields within the east of the nation. Anybody who desires to rule in Damascus will want entry to these assets to have the ability to finance the state.
The Turkish financial system, whereas not on Syrian ranges, is in no form to prop up a rump Syria. The nation was seeing decades-long highs in inflation of 80-plus % lately as Erdogan insisted on preserving low rates of interest. It was in such unhealthy form that Seymour Hersh reported that Biden promised to lean on the IMF for an $11-13 billion line of credit score to Türkiye in alternate for Ankara’s vote to permit Sweden into NATO. Whereas the IMF mortgage didn’t come to move, Erdogan reversed course on rates of interest and inflation is down however nonetheless excessive (47 % in November). The nation can be now in recession.
On the similar time, it’s greater than possible the refugee drawback will get even worse. Türkiye at present hosts upwards of three million Syrians, and whereas Ankara is hurriedly pushing them again into Syria and the media expresses concern that the lack of low-paid refugees will damage the financial system, that appears short-sighted.
Islamist extremist turned freedom fighter Abu Mohammad al-Jolani is having his inclusive message that encourages refugees to return residence unfold far and large by Western and Turkish media. His document and that of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham which he leads doesn’t — to place it mildly — help such statements nevertheless.
Nonetheless, wishful considering abounds in Türkiye.
Turkish Exceptionalism
Seen from afar, the ambiance jogs my memory of once I was residing and dealing in Istanbul 2015-2017 at TRT World. At the moment Venture Syria was effectively underway though working into issues. Nonetheless, there was an environment of euphoria among the many elite at TRT (you needed to be a well-connected Turk to get a place there) that Türkiye was on the march, reclaiming its rightful place as chief of the Muslim Arab world (regardless of the nation’s inhabitants being lower than 5 % Arab), and there was full help for neo-Ottoman aspirations to develop Turkish affect, if not territory.
That euphoria incessantly bumped into actuality checks, comparable to after the taking pictures down of a down Russian fighter jet in November of 2015. Regardless of the preliminary pleasure, Türkiye was finally compelled to apologize and even arrested the pilots who fired on the Russian plane after Moscow retaliated with financial measures and army motion in Syria. It ended up being extra of a humiliation for Türkiye.
Euphoria returned just a few months after the conclusion of that incident when Turkish direct army involvement started in Syria in August of 2016.
Whereas some observers place nationalism and Islamism aside in Turkish politics, the Türkiye of these years appeared extra a fusion of Islamism and ethno-nationalism. It appeared this ideology lastly hit a wall as Venture Syria stalled out, Türkiye was caught with at the very least 3 million refugees from the battle, and the financial system tanked. On the floor Ankara scaled again its ambitions, studying to work with an ascendant Russia and China and publicly renounced its use of jihadist mercenaries — even because it didn’t accomplish that in apply. In the meantime, Türkiye’s expansionist goals weren’t solely mendacity dormant however doubtlessly rising.
In elections of 2018 and 2023 the largest winners had been the Islamist nationalists who consider in Turkish superiority. The Nationalist Motion Celebration (MHP) and the Iyi occasion took 21 % of the vote and received 92 seats in parliament in 2018. Anti-refugee sentiment and financial hardships elevated the vote share of Islamist ethno-nationalist events in 2023, and so they proceed to have main affect on Turkish overseas coverage. It’s not exhausting to attract a line between the historical past of say, the MHP, and Turkish help for extremist proxies.
The MHP was based by Alparslan Turkes, a military colonel with hyperlinks to Operation Gladio and it gathered energy with its tight relationship with right-wing paramilitaries just like the Gray Wolves and Turkish organized crime of their CIA-backed battle in opposition to left-wingers, Communists, Kurdish, and Alevi organisations.
With their perception in Turkish superiority and purpose to rule the Arab world, these forces are in some ways the flip aspect to the identical coin of Zionism.
They’re now emboldened.
Fahim Issa, head of Sultan Murad, thanks MHP head Bahceli and Erdogan for “making their goals a actuality.” Issa is a Turkmen and Gray Wolf; the dream is TR occupation of Syria.
And the int’l neighborhood calls on HTS and the Enver Pasha-loving SNA to guard minorities in Syria. pic.twitter.com/kxQxW2gwjk
— Lindsey Snell (@LindseySnell) December 8, 2024
Sanctions and The Kurds
This ethno-nationalist neo-Ottoman ascendant wing of the Turkish elite is obsessive about the protection trade virtually as a lot as they’re with the destruction of the Kurds.
Resulting from US sanctions on Turkish protection industries and the presence of the US in japanese Syria and Washington’s use of the Kurds as proxies the 2 points are inextricably intertwined. Sen. Lindsey Graham affords a reminder:
I respect the air strikes in opposition to ISIS targets in Syria, but it surely won’t be sufficient. We’ve to make sure that the roughly 50,000 ISIS prisoners in northeastern Syria — being primarily held by Kurdish forces — are usually not launched.
We must always not enable the Kurdish forces — who helped…
— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) December 9, 2024
The West, nevertheless, has been eradicating a whole lot of roadblocks for the Turkish protection trade in latest months.
It seems to be just like the US is rethinking the sale of F-35s to Türkiye, which was dropped from this system over its buy of Russian S-400 missile protection system. On November 26, Turkish Protection Minister Yaşar Güler mentioned an settlement was reached that can see the S-400s stay inactive and that the People have reconsidered their stance on promoting F-35 fighter jets to Türkiye.
Probably extra essential than the defective F-35s is reduction from the Countering America’s Adversaries Via Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which has been used in opposition to Türkiye to get it to fall in line. There’s additionally been a years-long unofficial embargo imposed by Western allies on Türkiye, which has hampered its protection sector growth. Right here’s former US Below Secretary of State Victoria Nuland earlier this 12 months:
“If we will resolve this S-400 situation, which we want to do, the US could be glad to welcome Türkiye again into the F-35 household. If we will get previous this situation, sanctions underneath CAATSA will likely be eliminated and we will resume talks on the F-35.”
I haven’t seen any announcement from the US on the sanctions but, however it’s notable that the unofficial Western embargo lately got here to an finish. Der Spiegel lately reported that Germany’s Federal Safety Council, which meets in secret, is approving the sale of $368 million price of heavy weaponry to Türkiye, in addition to reconsidering Türkiye’s request to buy Eurofighter warplanes.
Türkiye additionally lately introduced huge plans for its personal air protection undertaking, one which possible displays a perception that the top to sanctions — which damage specific imports like semiconductors and microchips — are going to be relaxed.
But per Graham’s tweet above, it seems to be just like the CAATSA sanctions will now be utilized in an effort to stop Türkiye from steering its extremist military in direction of the US-backed Kurds in northeastern Syria.
On the Kurdish query, there’s been a whole lot of noise in Türkiye in latest months a few potential peace deal, which might be virtually as surprising as Syria’s sudden collapse. Was that each one one other headfake?
Reuters experiences that the US and Türkiye have a deal for US-backed Kurdish forces to withdraw from the city of Manbij, in northeastern Aleppo, Syria the place they’ve been besieged there by Türkiye’s extremist proxies. Their retreat east of the Euphrates could be a win for Türkiye, however will it’s sufficient? And may Ankara even proceed to regulate the forces it has unleashed in Syria?
Türkiye’s overseas minister, Hakan Fidan, insisted on Sunday that any teams that had been “an extension of the PKK” couldn’t be a part of talks on the way forward for Syria.
Will the specter of sanctions cancel out Türkiye’s need to annihilate the Kurds. With the US and Türkiye it’s a ready sport between two non-agreement succesful nations to see who will betray the opposite one first.
Within the meantime we’ve a scenario the place an more and more militarist authorities in Türkiye is determined to undertaking Turkish energy however is concurrently desperate to get out from underneath sanctions holding again its protection trade.
The place Else Do US and Turkish Pursuits Overlap?
In some methods Türkiye, which is prone to be banished from future Shanghai Cooperation Group and BRICS developments (extra on that under), is much more incentivized to push ahead with expansionary goals with the intention to make itself an indispensable accomplice within the area — one which China and Russia are compelled to proceed to work with regardless of Turkish duplicitousness.
There’s a whole lot of discuss that Türkiye needed to do that whereas nonetheless having leverage over Russia, i.e., the Ukraine battle nonetheless occurring. The one huge query is that if — and this is a gigantic if — the Trump administration can come to some settlement with Russia on Ukraine and the US general belligerent coverage in direction of Russia that extends from the Baltic and the Arctic to the Black Sea, the Caucasus, and Central Asia, Turkey would turn into much less essential. Are it and the US neocons achieved attempting to reshape the board earlier than Trump comes into workplace?
As a result of Türkiye is determined to ramp up its homegrown protection trade for which it wants sanctions reduction and since its financial system is reliant on the EU, it’s unlikely it doubles down on its “success” in Syria with strikes on Cyprus or disputes with Greece over islands and territorial waters in any severe method.
I feel the query is the place else do Turkish and US-Israel pursuits align. What Syria makes clear is that Türkiye’s imperialistic ambitions match simply high quality with Washington — so long as it may be molded to suit US-Israel goals as effectively:
The Zionist regime is shifting troops deeper inside Syria. In the meantime, it’s destroying all of Syria’s army infrastructure, together with its navy.
Not a phrase from Erdogan or his Al-Qaeda henchmen.
Apparently, now that Syria is “free,” it ought to now not be capable of defend itself. pic.twitter.com/FTqsvBPqqR
— Seyed Mohammad Marandi (@s_m_marandi) December 10, 2024
Observe: Turkey did condemn Israel’s “occupying mentality” after its forces entered a UN-patrolled buffer zone within the Golan Heights, however is there any cause to take that extra severely than all Erdogan’s fiery rhetoric in opposition to Israel over the previous 12 months?
Whereas variations stay on the Kurdish query, and Larger Israel and Larger Türkiye could possibly be on a collision course, there’s nonetheless one space the place the US, Israel, and Türkiye all see eye to eye.
Pan-Turkism and Weakening Iran
I’ve written in regards to the Zangezur Hall typically (you possibly can learn extra right here and right here) so I’ll hold this temporary.
The Zangezur Hall is a 42-kilometer strip of land in southern Armenia wedged between Azerbaijan and its exclave, Nakhchivan, and bordered by Iran to the south. Whereas small it holds outsize significance for the area. That’s as a result of it may deal a serious blow to Iran (purpose of Israel and subsequently the US) whereas cementing Turkish energy within the area.
On Saturday the Turkish Parliament’s Overseas Relations Committee Chair renewed calls to open the hall and expressed his nation’s readiness to in alternate normalize relations with Armenia. Türkiye believes it will result in the nation’s rise as an Eurasian Nice Energy. Right here’s what Ankara envisions:
- A fuel pipeline from Baku to Türkiye by the hall.
- Elevated leverage in negotiating fuel costs with Iran.
- Resurrecting the Trans-Caspian pipeline and transporting that fuel by Türkiye to Europe (A pipeline by a Nakhchivan hall may assist enhance provides to Europe to upwards of 31 bcm, though that will be years away, and mockingly, resulting from its heavy investments within the Azerbaijani oil and fuel sector, one of many greater beneficiaries of any Brussels-Baku offers could be Russia. Azerbaijan is even importing extra Russian fuel itself with the intention to meet its obligations to Europe.
- A logistics hall stretching to China.
- A railroad line from Türkiye to Nakhchivan may make Türkiye a regional transit hub along with an power one.
It may require China to work with Türkiye on Center Hall logistics — particularly if the West is profitable with its Georgia shade revolution efforts that will deal a serious blow to Beijing’s efforts to open an enormous Black Sea port there. The hall may doubtlessly deal a blow to Russia as effectively relying on the finer factors of any deal.
The hall scenario for Iran is analogous to Syria. It will hurt Iranian affect within the area in a serious method.Iran could be eradicated as a bypass route round Armenia. Particulars from Al Monitor:
Iran earns a 15% fee from Azerbaijan’s fuel provides to Nakhchivan. It serves additionally as a route for Turkish exports to Central Asia. A mean of about 12,000 Turkish vans use the route month-to-month, with Iran charging passage charges of as much as $800 for his or her 1,800-kilometer (1,120-mile) journey to the Turkmenistan border.
Greater than the cash, nevertheless, Iran doesn’t need to lose affect over Azerbaijan, which depends on transit by Iran to hook up with its exclave. And Tehran is very fearful a few NATO Turan Hall which sees the West hyperlink up hypothetical shopper states all through central Asia. From Dr. Vali Kaleji, a Tehran-based skilled on Central Asia and Caucasian Research:
Iran sees the creation of the Zangezur hall as a matter past the entry of the Republic of Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan exclave and believes that this hall will present direct army entry for Türkiye as a NATO member within the Caucasus and west of the Caspian Sea. Certainly, a major variety of Iranian elites and consultants consider that the enlargement of Türkiye’s presence within the South Caucasus, particularly by the Zangezur hall, will strengthen pan-Turkism within the area, which is a direct risk to the Azeri areas of north-western Iran.
There’s been a whole lot of discuss of purple traces and the like, however what does Tehran do if Armenia, guided by the People, chooses to permit the opening of the hall? Like Syria the place Assad reportedly turned down Iranian help, is Iran actually ready to go in opposition to the needs of one other authorities with the intention to defend its pursuits — on this case one thing alongside the traces of occupying southern Armenia?
Azerbaijan is vital. It enjoys a robust relationship with Russia, and whereas there are nonetheless holdups between Baku and Yerevan, it’s unclear if Azerbaijan desires the hall underneath US steering at the price of damaging ties with its highly effective neighbors in Iran and Russia. Then again, Azerbaijan’s closest ally is Türkiye, and Baku has main financial ties with Israel (and it’s believed a heavy Mossad presence within the nation).
We’ll see. Türkiye and Erdogan are something however predictable. Whereas Türkiye might need its fingers full in Syria, that doesn’t imply it received’t tackle one other main threat. It’s not exhausting to see the items sliding into place for an extra main transfer by the US-Israel neocon-Zionists and the Turks that will seemingly profit each side. The good query could be how Iran and Russia would react.
Win the Battle, Lose the Conflict
Widespread knowledge is that Erdogan is the massive winner within the toppling of the Assad authorities. Türkiye may additionally find yourself being the largest loser long-term.
It could possibly be swamped with extra refugees. Because the Syrian extremists are now not united by the purpose of deposing Assad and are confronted with the unimaginable job of governing, extended energy struggles are possible, which can pressure Türkiye to again a faction thereby making new enemies. . ANd it’s fully potential — if unlikely — that the struggle involves Türkiye and we see a return to the terrorist assaults that plagued the nation within the mid-2010s. There’s additionally rigidity brewing at residence over Türkiye’s ongoing poorly disguised help for Israel, which possibly Syria helps paper over a time, however is unlikely to go away.
It’s unclear what financial advantages this “victory” has for Türkiye. The Monetary Instances opined that “Türkiye, already combating excessive inflation and recession, would profit from resuming full enterprise and commerce ties alongside the 900km Syrian-Turkish border. Its building sector, which has shut hyperlinks to Erdoğan, may money in on a rebuilding invoice anticipated to run to lots of of billions of {dollars}.”
Laborious to see how that occurs except the nation magically finds peace and safety. It’s more likely this all finally ends up blowing up in Türkiye’s face. I famous the similarities between American and Turkish exceptionalism. One main distinction is that the US could make a multitude and retreat to its residence between two oceans. Syria shares a border with Türkiye, and the US has possible destabilized not simply Syria however Türkiye as effectively with its help for the Turkish-led operation to topple Assad.
Ankara may find yourself lacking Assad, Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah and their stabilizing presence.
In contrast to the euphoria following the 2015 shoot down of the Russian fighter jet, there received’t be any placing the toothpaste again within the tube this time following the inevitable come-down from the latest excessive.
On the similar time, Türkiye has burned some severe bridges with Beijing and Moscow. The powers which can be strengthening within the New Chilly Conflict (China, Russia, and even India) won’t look kindly on a Türkiye keen to make use of extremist proxies to pursue its targets. They’ll look even much less kindly on it after Turkish officers spent latest months mendacity to their faces. There have been two paths open to Türkiye within the New Chilly Conflict, WWIII, or no matter you need to name it:
- Proceed to play the center floor as battle in Ukraine continues whereas concurrently forging stronger ties with Moscow, Beijing, the SCO, and BRICS. That is largely what Türkiye was doing and appeared to mirror an acknowledgement that whereas the Islamist ethno-nationalist short-term targets may align with declining US-Israel, Türkiye’s long run pursuits lie with good relations with all its neighbors, particularly Russia.
- Facet with one aspect. I’ve written typically about how the West with its stress campaigns and US-Israel genocide was making Türkiye’s place untenable. Shockingly, Türkiye determined it was extra in its pursuits to bow to the US-Israel on this case slightly than transfer within the different route.
Now the Turks clearly don’t body it as selecting door quantity two. They suppose they’re solely on the aspect of Türkiye and pursuing Turkish pursuits. However Russia, China, and the World South will view it as a serious betrayal. That’s as a result of Türkiye didn’t simply occur to have overlapping pursuits with the US-Israel on this case, but it surely spat within the face of what the BRICS and SCO stand for by counting on extremist mercenaries, violating sovereignty and agreements, and looking back it’s clear that Turkish officers had been mendacity to the faces of their Russian and Chinese language counterparts. You may learn right here what Erdogan and Turkish officers had been telling the Russians and Chinese language on the summer season SCO summit, which coincidentally had a concentrate on settling the Syrian situation and bringing Türkiye into the operation to safe the Asian “heartland” from Western meddling and regime change operations.
Will China and Russia proceed to work with Türkiye when essential? Türkiye is relying on it because it depends on Russia for many of its fuel and oil and is courting Chinese language funding to function a backdoor into the EU customs union. However Turkey is now seen as an issue that should be handled, not a rustic that may be enticed by financial carrots and appeals to mutual self-interest. It’s an enemy to the undertaking of Eurasian integration and SCO protection in opposition to imperialism.
And may Türkiye’s reliance on jihadists, Nazis, and Zionists blow up in its face, it would get little or no sympathy from China, Russia, the BRICS, or SCO — nor for that matter will the West shed a tear.
