Desktop Metal Stock: New and Improved – On Sale 50% Off

If we needed to decide our greatest high quality, it might most likely be modesty. Not like different pundits, you received’t hear us continually flaunting our greatest calls. We virtually by no means point out the truth that we offered our Ali Baba holding proper earlier than shares tanked due to dangers we identified. That decision we made on Palantir and their dependency on the federal government? We don’t speak about that a lot. The identical holds true for our warning on Zymergen and Ginko Bioworks. And all of the over-the-counter junk shares we’ve known as out through the years hardly advantage a point out both. Common readers know that our risk-averse method to tech investing works, which is why we don’t want to speak about promoting our Desktop Metallic (DM) place at a median of $14.76 a share. Effectively really, we do want to speak about that.

We’ve all the time thought Desktop Metallic supplied a compelling story lengthy earlier than they determined to go public utilizing a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). When the SPAC merger was introduced, we purchased shares within the firm although we’ve been warning in regards to the risks of SPACs for years now. Then, when costs doubled based mostly on hype, we began promoting shares. Lastly, after adopting a brand new rule about not investing in SPACs that hadn’t accomplished their merger but, we exited our whole DM place. In doing so, we broke considered one of our most vital guidelines – don’t try to time the markets. Simply because we made cash on the commerce doesn’t imply it was the fitting factor to do.

Of the 90 disruptive tech SPACs we’ve lined, simply over one-third are buying and selling at a 50% low cost from their providing value, Desktop Metallic being considered one of them.

Given the inventory at present sits in our tech inventory catalog as a “like,” we wish to consider the corporate’s year-end outcomes to see if that sentiment nonetheless holds true as we speak.

Desktop Metallic’s Acquisitions

In September of 2020, we wrote “the actual worth to be discovered is in Desktop Metallic’s grand plan for consolidation inside the metallic 3D printing area.” That imaginative and prescient is one cause we like the corporate, and their consolidation effort was realized in 2021 after buying ten firms for whole consideration of $1.11 billion, a spree that culminated with the acquisition of key competitor ExOne.

The 2 greatest acquisitions above – ExOne and EnvisitonTEC – didn’t come low cost with goodwill representing 61% and 64% of the acquisition value respectively. As we’ve seen within the hashish world, firms that wish to make acquisitions in a rush typically pay exorbitant costs, and the accountants justify all that extra as “goodwill.” Within the case of ExOne, we’re having a tough time understanding why such a premium was paid when the corporate hasn’t been in a position to develop their approach out of a moist paper bag.

Desktop Metallic just lately introduced their year-end outcomes which beat expectations with 2021 revenues of $112.4 million. Simply 14% of that quantity got here from ExOne, whereas 66% got here from all of the acquisitions mixed, although they haven’t sufficiently been audited but. As soon as all of the numbers are crunched, hopefully they’ll outline some reporting segments so we will see simply the place the income development is coming from.

Desktop Metallic’s administration crew has given traders quite a lot of targets to concentrate to – 2021 revenues of $260 million (reaching $1 billion by 2025) and a give attention to profitability. In 2021, Desktop Metallic used money in working actions of $155.0 million, and ended the yr with $269.6 million of money. The amount of money they’ve been burning has been a priority so it’s nice to see administration addressing that.

The P-50 Manufacturing Platform

We’re presently holding three 3D printing firms in our personal tech inventory portfolio and we’re not on the lookout for a 3rd. That being stated, we have to consider Desktop Metallic as both a inventory we like or a inventory we’re avoiding. Our unique bull thesis surrounded their efforts to consolidate the fragmented metallic 3D printing area they usually seem to have made progress there. However someplace alongside the best way we misplaced monitor of what made Desktop Metallic enticing within the first place – the world’s greatest and quickest metallic 3D printer.

That was a key speaking level once we interviewed the corporate again in 2019, and right here’s what they advised us:

Two main clients have already bought the Manufacturing System. One is a “very massive Fortune 500” firm that Myerberg declined to establish at this level. Nor might he specify the kind of parts that the shopper is manufacturing in its manufacturing unit. The opposite is an organization based mostly in India known as Indo-MIM that is likely one of the world’s greatest metallic injection molding producers. 

Nanalyze telephone interview with DM CTO in December 2019

Quick ahead to as we speak and the primary sale of the P-50 was simply introduced to Stanley Black & Decker. We will most likely assume this represents a distinct era of the unique platform which they spent 4 years and $100 million creating. Within the year-end name, analysts pressed Desktop Metallic executives for extra details about what kind of gross sales we will count on to see from the P-50. For instance:

So, how about simply give attention to the P-50? If reminiscence is definitely appropriate, a yr and a half in the past, once you guys first got here out, you talked about 84 reservations about machine or some quantity like that. I’m simply curious, might you give us an replace on type of the place you’re with backlog and visibility on the P-50 and maybe on what number of extra machines you’re going to ship this yr?

DM This fall-2021 earnings name transcript from Searching for Alpha

The corporate’s reply was imprecise and emphasised how they’re growing manufacturing capability to satisfy demand. All through the decision, they appeared evasive when answering P-50 questions. At one level in the course of the name, the Chairman and CEO Ric Fulop made the next comment:

So, I’m very pleased with the demand for the product. I’m very pleased with the interior plans, however we’re going to do it in a even handed approach in order that we get blissful clients on the opposite aspect.

DM This fall-2021 earnings name transcript from Searching for Alpha

We get the sensation that the preliminary rollout of the Manufacturing System had some main issues and that Desktop Metallic wanted to return to the drafting board and develop a second or third era product which is now obtainable to clients. That concept might be additional supported by Mr. Fulop’s remark to Forbes in Jan 2019 relating to their Sequence E spherical, “we’re funded by way of cash-flow breakeven.” Maybe there have been lofty expectations at the moment which have since been grounded in actuality. Nonetheless, it stays to be seen if the Manufacturing System P-50 printer that we heard a lot about lives as much as expectations.

Liking Desktop Metallic Inventory

In January 2019, Desktop Metallic raised $160 million from institutional traders at a valuation of $1.3 billion. At the moment, the corporate didn’t have their grand aspirations for consolidating the trade. In the present day, the corporate is valued at $1.56 billion they usually’ve spent $1.1 billion in whole consideration to amass ten firms. The top result’s a wholly completely different worth proposition than what it began out to be, albeit one which’s extra pretty valued. If we analyze Desktop Metallic’s This fall-2021 revenues of $56.7 million, we get $226.8 million annualized which supplies us a easy valuation ratio of round 7 (it was over 100). We might hardly thought of that overvalued, and it’s roughly inline with different 3D printing firms we’ve lined reminiscent of Markforged (7.5) and Xometry (7).

If the P-50 fails to turn into the success story everybody anticipated, then what would they be had they not acquired ten firms? Simply one other failed firm that pivoted. Administration has a grasp plan that requires traders to belief their means to execute. Within the meantime. we’ll revisit the corporate as soon as the next further info is made obtainable:

• Extra coloration across the success or failure of the P-50
• A breakdown of revenues by sort – printer gross sales vs. Desktop Well being vs. Desktop Labs
• A consolidation and full audit of all acquired firms

Lastly, traders want to concentrate to dilution. Previous to executing the SPAC, present DM shareholders held 183 million shares excellent. One other 63.1 million shares have been issued in the course of the SPAC, after which one other 64.9 million shares issued in the course of the fast acquisition spree, with the tip end result being 311 million shares excellent.

Conclusion

SPACs have restricted info to start with. After elevating boatloads of money, some like Desktop Metallic go on fast acquisition sprees. The top result’s that what the SPAC began out as is nothing like what it ends as much as be. As a way to perceive what Desktop Metallic has turn into, the corporate must section their revenues and begin proving traders with some granularity in monetary experiences. Moreover, they should present coloration on the success of their flagship P-50 platform which analysts appear to be craving.

Tech investing is extraordinarily dangerous. Reduce your threat with our inventory analysis, funding instruments, and portfolios, and discover out which tech shares it’s best to keep away from. Turn out to be a Nanalyze Premium member and discover out as we speak!