COVID-19 Correlations: Local Cases, Local Returns?

That native temper impacts native inventory returns is a longstanding truism of the monetary markets. Quite a few behavioral research again this up. When a sports activities groups loses, for instance, the shares of native corporations are likely to fall as properly. Related patterns have emerged round climate and election outcomes. That’s, sunny climate in a selected market is correlated with outperformance of the corresponding shares, and equities related to specific causes or candidates do properly when elections appear to consequence of their favor.

However what has the COVID-19 period revealed about this native phenomenon? Particularly, since 2020, have COVID-19 case counts had any correlation with inventory returns in sure areas?

To check this premise, we recognized 4 sectors which are related to particular geographies. We homed in on the communications, power, expertise, and finance industries and the corresponding US areas they’re usually related to: Los Angeles, Houston, the San Francisco Bay Space, and New York Metropolis, respectively. We used exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as tough proxies for every business and area, with the Communication Providers Choose Sector SPDR Fund (XLC) standing in for Los Angeles/communications, the Vitality Choose Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) for Houston/power, the Expertise Choose Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) for the Bay Space/tech, and the Monetary Choose Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) for New York Metropolis/finance.

In every sector/area, we checked out how the case depend in that exact metropolitan space correlated with returns within the related business from February 2020 by way of February 2022. 

So, what did we discover?

Median Weekly Irregular Returns

Throughout the 4 areas, we didn’t determine any main distinction in irregular returns in both a excessive or low COVID-19 case month throughout the complete two years of information.

However the worst month for COVID-19 case counts was a unique story. Within the months the place COVID-19 instances have been at their highest, there was a adverse correlation between instances and returns. In different phrases, because the case counts spiked in these areas, the costs of the ETFs related to the native business fell.

Highest Case Month: Correlation between Inventory Returns and Circumstances

Our outcomes recommend that solely the worst COVID-19 months had an impact on returns in localized areas and industries. Particularly, as instances spiked in Houston, XLE costs plummeted.

In fact, correlation just isn’t causation, and the monetary efficiency of those industries and areas is hardly defined by anyone single variable. 

Nonetheless, the outcomes recommend that COVID-19 might have had an outsized impact on localized returns — however solely when the native case counts have been sufficiently excessive.

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All posts are the opinion of the writer. As such, they shouldn’t be construed as funding recommendation, nor do the opinions expressed essentially mirror the views of CFA Institute or the writer’s employer.

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