September arabica espresso (KCU25) on Friday closed down -1.30 (-0.45%), and September ICE robusta espresso (RMU25) closed down -104 (-3.13%).
Espresso costs on Friday fell, with robusta espresso slumping to a 14-month low. Arabica espresso noticed some assist early within the session on bullish carryover from Wednesday, when President Trump stated he would impose 50% tariffs on US imports from Brazil efficient August 1. That risk brought on concern that espresso provides could possibly be disrupted from Brazil, the world’s largest producer of arabica espresso.
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On Tuesday, Sep arabica espresso posted a contract low, and on Monday, the July (N25) nearest-futures contract fell to a 7.5-month low, because the advancing espresso harvest in Brazil weighed on costs. Safras & Mercado reported Friday that Brazil’s 2025/26 espresso harvest was 69% full as of July 9, forward of final yr’s comparable stage of 66% and the 5-year common of 62%. The breakdown confirmed that 88% of the robusta harvest and 58% of the arabica harvest had been full as of July 9. In the meantime, Brazil’s Cooxupe espresso co-op on Tuesday reported that the group’s espresso harvest was 40% full as of July 4, in contrast with 52% accomplished on the identical time final yr. Cooxupe is Brazil’s largest espresso cooperative and Brazil’s largest exporter group.
Robusta espresso is underneath stress as a result of indicators of elevated espresso provides from Vietnam, following the Vietnam Nationwide Statistics Workplace’s report on Monday that Vietnam’s Jan-Jun 2025 espresso exports had been up +4.1% y/y to 943,000 MT.
Espresso costs have retreated over the previous two months because the outlook for plentiful espresso provides undercut costs. On June 25, the USDA’s Overseas Agricultural Service (FAS) forecasted that Brazil’s 2025/26 espresso manufacturing will enhance by 0.5% y/y to 65 million baggage and that Vietnam’s 2025/26 espresso output will rise by 6.9% y/y to a 4-year excessive of 31 million baggage. Brazil is the world’s largest producer of arabica espresso, and Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of robusta espresso.
Under-normal rainfall in Brazil is supportive for espresso costs. Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-growing space, Minas Gerais, obtained no rain throughout the week ended July 5.
Robusta espresso costs have discovered assist as ICE-monitored robusta espresso inventories declined to a 7-week low of 5,108 heaps on June 26, though they’ve since rebounded to five,349 heaps as of Friday. Nevertheless, a bearish issue for arabica costs is that ICE-monitored arabica espresso inventories rose to a 5-month excessive of 892,468 baggage on Could 27 and had been reasonably under that prime at 826,914 baggage as of Friday.
As a consequence of drought, Vietnam’s espresso manufacturing within the 2023/24 crop yr decreased by -20% y/y to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in 4 years. Additionally, Vietnam’s Normal Statistics Workplace reported that 2024 Vietnam espresso exports fell by -17.1% y/y to 1.35 MMT. Moreover, the Vietnam Espresso and Cocoa Affiliation diminished its 2024/25 Vietnam espresso manufacturing estimate to 26.5 million baggage on March 12, down from a December estimate of 28 million baggage.
The USDA’s biannual report, launched on June 25, was bearish for espresso costs. The USDA’s Overseas Agriculture Service (FAS) projected that world espresso manufacturing in 2025/26 will enhance by +2.5% y/y to a report 178.68 million baggage, with a -1.7% lower in arabica manufacturing to 97.022 million baggage and a +7.9% enhance in robusta manufacturing to 81.658 million baggage. The USDA’s FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending shares will climb by +4.9% to 22.819 million baggage from 21.752 million baggage in 2024/25.
For the 2025/26 advertising and marketing yr, Volcafe initiatives a world 2025/26 arabica espresso deficit of -8.5 million baggage, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and the fifth consecutive yr of deficits.
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