First, why did the inflation hedge thesis lose credibility? Well, people saw inflation rising rapidly in late 2021 and early 2022, just as bitcoin’s price quickly fell. Ergo, bitcoin wasn’t an inflation hedge. Many critics of Bitcoin enjoyed carping about this, and the tl;dr of all of their articles and interviews was “I told you so.” But some bitcoiners, such as Steven Lubka, held to their conviction. We were experiencing price inflation due to systemic supply chain shocks caused by various factors, particularly the world reopening following COVID-19. There was no monetary inflation, and so, the idea that bitcoin could act as a lifeboat amid the devaluing of the U.S. dollar could still hold true.
US Military Action Against Iran Exposes Split Between Polymarket and Kalshi Models
US and Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend despatched shockwaves by prediction markets, exposing sharp operational contrasts as a...
