Saturday, October 18, 2025
  • Login
Euro Times
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Finance
  • Business
  • World
  • Politics
  • Markets
  • Stock Market
  • Cryptocurrency
  • Investing
  • Health
  • Technology
  • Home
  • Finance
  • Business
  • World
  • Politics
  • Markets
  • Stock Market
  • Cryptocurrency
  • Investing
  • Health
  • Technology
Euro Times
No Result
View All Result

Are Africa’s children our last hope to save us from demographic decline?

by Wolfgang Fengler
June 24, 2022
in Finance
Reading Time: 8 mins read
A A
0
Home Finance
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter


In 2010, I requested the next query in considered one of my blogs: “Can speedy inhabitants development be good for financial improvement?” It rapidly grew to become probably the most learn weblog in World Financial institution historical past, because it was a part of a broader controversy. On the time, most individuals nonetheless believed the world had an “overpopulation drawback” and adhered to some model of the Malthus theorem or Paul Ehrlich’s “inhabitants bomb” concept. Nonetheless, a handful of individuals, together with Hans Rosling, Shanta Devarajan, and me, noticed a really completely different story rising from the information.  

In our view, the “overpopulation camp” was misreading the implications of inhabitants development as a result of it was misinterpreting the sources of that development. Right now, the principle driver of inhabitants development shouldn’t be excessive fertility (as prior to now) however rising longevity, particularly in rising market areas. As such, inhabitants development—underpinned by the “filling up of adults,” as Hans Rosling referred to as it—shouldn’t be a symptom of underdevelopment however simply the alternative. 

The skeptics have been additionally flawed to assume that extra adults would end in greater unemployment assuming that extra folks would compete for a small quantity of present jobs. Nonetheless, this “mounted cake fallacy” doesn’t account for scale economies and the workings of the labor market. Let’s illustrate that time by South Africa and Japan. Each international locations have nearly the identical variety of kids (ages 0-14), with Japan round 15 million and South Africa round 17 million. Nonetheless, whereas Japan has 110 million adults (ages 15+) towards South Africa’s 43 million, South Africa’s unemployment fee is ten occasions as excessive (30 p.c) as in Japan (3 p.c). Clearly, South Africa has an unemployment drawback, however it isn’t pushed by demography (see Determine 1).  

Determine 1. Demography and jobs: A story of two international locations

Supply: World Financial institution (2021), World Growth Indicators, World Knowledge Lab (2022) World Knowledge Professional; Worldwide Labor Group. (2020). ILOSTAT database [country profiles].      

Right now, if anybody has a demographic drawback on their fingers, it’s superior economies the place opinion shapers like Elon Musk worry we will soon face a shortage of skilled workers and finally danger the survival of our species. A speedy decline in fertility nearly in all places means the international variety of kids (ages 0-14) is anticipated to shrink, from barely under 2 billion as we speak to about 1.8 billion by 2050. In Asia the overall variety of kids is projected to fall by 220 million (from 1.076 billion to 855 million). The remainder of the world may also have 40 million fewer kids (a decline from 353 million to 312 million). The one exception is Africa, which is able to add round 100 million kids (from 550 million to 650 million) to the world inhabitants by 2050. Certainly, in all of Africa, the variety of kids continues to be rising by a comparatively modest 1 p.c per yr—in comparison with a staggering 2.7 p.c “grownup development”—leading to an general inhabitants development of two p.c. If Africa had adopted the trail of the rest of the world since 2000, there could be round 250 million fewer kids on the planet by 2050 (see Figure 2). Then the world would solely be house to round 1.5 billion kids (a 25 p.c decline in comparison with 2000), which might have raised many extra alarm bells amongst these involved concerning the “depopulation” of our planet.   

Determine 2. The world’s kids: Asia’s decline, Africa’s rise

Figure 2. The world’s children: Asia’s decline, Africa’s rise

Supply: Projections based mostly on Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and World Human Capital, (2018). Wittgenstein Centre Knowledge Explorer Model 2.0.   

With enhancements in well being and sanitation, Africa’s inhabitants development shall be even greater in the quick to medium time period. I imagine it is a good factor, as this inhabitants development is pushed by adults.  African economies may gain advantage from an schooling dividend as a bigger cohort of fogeys invests extra (sources and a focus) in fewer kids. In flip, as African children “talent up” and acquire entry to digital worth chains, they may discover alternatives to work in tradable companies. In an optimistic situation, this schooling dividend will finally end in a jobs dividend. If that occurs, the projected international demographic imbalance can change into a possibility for Africa. Corporations in want of expertise will discover Francophone and Anglophone native audio system solely a click on away. Investing in Africa will assist each improvement and the underside line. 

 





Source link

Tags: AfricasChildrendeclinedemographichopeSave
Previous Post

What is Kaliningrad, and why is a source of Ukraine war tensions?

Next Post

Bar Harbor Bankshares Announces Stock Repurchase Plan

Related Posts

Big Tech’s AI ambitions are remaking the US power grid. Consumers are paying the price.

Big Tech’s AI ambitions are remaking the US power grid. Consumers are paying the price.

by Jake Conley
October 18, 2025
0

AI fashions and the information facilities crammed with chips to energy them require an infinite quantity of energy. And the...

Tulipmania Reconsidered, Reconciling Austrian Perspectives

Tulipmania Reconsidered, Reconciling Austrian Perspectives

by Joseph Solis-Mullen
October 18, 2025
0

Few historic episodes loom as massive within the standard creativeness of speculative extra because the Dutch tulip bubble of the...

Book Review: The Mixed Blessing of Antibiotics

Book Review: The Mixed Blessing of Antibiotics

by Yves Smith
October 18, 2025
0

Yves right here. This guide assessment, and probably the underlying guide, is irritating in that it seems to present quick...

October’s Duality: Embracing the Beauty and Melancholy of Time in Markets and Nature

October’s Duality: Embracing the Beauty and Melancholy of Time in Markets and Nature

by Kevin Davitt
October 17, 2025
0

AU, Jana, Ujjivan report lower Q2 net profit, on higher expenses, credit cost

AU, Jana, Ujjivan report lower Q2 net profit, on higher expenses, credit cost

by Atmadip Ray
October 17, 2025
0

Kolkata: The small finance financial institution pack, which reported their quarterly earnings Friday, confronted strain on profitability both attributable to...

Martin Lewis explains how to secure up to £400 financial boost before Christmas

Martin Lewis explains how to secure up to £400 financial boost before Christmas

by Albert Toth
October 17, 2025
0

Get the free Morning Headlines e mail for information from our reporters internationallySignal as much as our free Morning Headlines...

Next Post
Bar Harbor Bankshares Announces Stock Repurchase Plan

Bar Harbor Bankshares Announces Stock Repurchase Plan

G.O.P. Testimony at Jan. 6 Panel Exposes a Party Torn Between Truth and Trump

G.O.P. Testimony at Jan. 6 Panel Exposes a Party Torn Between Truth and Trump

Big Tech’s AI ambitions are remaking the US power grid. Consumers are paying the price.

Big Tech’s AI ambitions are remaking the US power grid. Consumers are paying the price.

October 18, 2025
‘Tracker’ Season 3: How to Watch the First Episode Without Cable

‘Tracker’ Season 3: How to Watch the First Episode Without Cable

October 18, 2025
Trump is Done With Zelensky, Tomahawk Snub Clinches It

Trump is Done With Zelensky, Tomahawk Snub Clinches It

October 18, 2025
Pakistan and Afghanistan to hold peace talks in Doha — RT World News

Pakistan and Afghanistan to hold peace talks in Doha — RT World News

October 18, 2025
5 Dividend Compounders I’m Buying For Passive Income

5 Dividend Compounders I’m Buying For Passive Income

October 18, 2025
Tulipmania Reconsidered, Reconciling Austrian Perspectives

Tulipmania Reconsidered, Reconciling Austrian Perspectives

October 18, 2025
Euro Times

Get the latest news and follow the coverage of Business & Financial News, Stock Market Updates, Analysis, and more from the trusted sources.

CATEGORIES

  • Business
  • Cryptocurrency
  • Finance
  • Health
  • Investing
  • Markets
  • Politics
  • Stock Market
  • Technology
  • Uncategorized
  • World

LATEST UPDATES

Big Tech’s AI ambitions are remaking the US power grid. Consumers are paying the price.

‘Tracker’ Season 3: How to Watch the First Episode Without Cable

  • Disclaimer
  • Privacy Policy
  • DMCA
  • Cookie Privacy Policy
  • Terms and Conditions
  • Contact us

Copyright © 2022 - Euro Times.
Euro Times is not responsible for the content of external sites.

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Finance
  • Business
  • World
  • Politics
  • Markets
  • Stock Market
  • Cryptocurrency
  • Investing
  • Health
  • Technology

Copyright © 2022 - Euro Times.
Euro Times is not responsible for the content of external sites.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In