For all of the sturm und drang of at this time’s preventing, modifications on the bottom have been scant. Ukraine formally picked up a small city right here, Russia did the identical over there. Whereas a lot of the entrance line was on hearth (Ukraine claimed 14 separate assaults), the scenario on the bottom remained basically unchanged. @War_Mapper’s updates on Twitter are at all times nice, if you wish to see today’s changes.
I wrote earlier that pro-Russian Telegram sources claimed Ukraine was assaulting Izyum from throughout the Donets River (backside arrow in picture under), however a number of sources declare the assault is definitely coming down from Chuhuiv (high arrow).
If Chuhuiv is the the supply of the counter-offensive, it could possible journey that fundamental freeway southeast towards Izyium, relatively than east towards Kupiansk. Russia has moved an excessive amount of fight energy to Shevchenkove, between Chuhuiv and Kupiansk, to guard its important provide depot from any Ukrainian advance. Getting by way of these two cities could be costly to Ukraine in navy sources and lives. And there’s no want, as we’ve can now so clearly see with Ukraine’s push towards Izyum itself.
Briefly, if Ukraine collapses that Izyum pocket, there may be not a necessity for Russia to take care of operations in both Kupiansk or Vovchansk—the 2 logistical hubs feeding the battle machine within the Izyum salient. After every week of debating “Kupiansk vs Vovchansk,” it seems that one of the best reply is “C: Take away the motive for each.”
To make certain, I doublechecked NASA Corporations satellite tv for pc imagery, and there’s actually no fires close to Shevechenkove. If Ukraine was headed in that course, it could hearth in town to clear Russian positions, whereas Russia would hearth again to sluggish or cease the advance. As an alternative, as I demonstrated earlier with FIRMS satellite tv for pc imagery, all of the motion is creating immediately west of Izyum:
Possibly there’s a two-prong assault on Izyum creating, from each the west and northwest. Or possibly individuals don’t know what’s happening. Or possibly there’s even some disinformation designed to repair Russian positions on a northwest strategy that may by no means materialize. That’s why FIRMS imagery may be so useful. There are such a lot of sources of data claiming stuff, and never all of them are actually incentivized to at all times inform the reality.
On one other subject, it’s good seeing our protection tax {dollars} doing one thing productive.
The declare by Ukrainian servicemen’s is that American-donated M777 howitzers destroyed the 80+ autos at Russia’s unimaginably disastrous Bilohorivka river crossing try. I’m trying ahead to a translation (this guy will do it quickly), nevertheless it positively seems like an “America, FUCK YEAH” second we liberals can rally behind.
This complete debacle has been enjoyable to trace on pro-Russia social media. The Institute for the Research of Battle claims, in tonight’s replace, that they’ve seen pro-Russia telegram shaken by the carnage:
Outstanding pro-Russian Telegram channels (with roughly 300 thousand followers) largely criticized Russian Common Workers for failing to be taught from earlier fight errors and expressed concern that censorship and self-censorship was depriving them of situational consciousness. Different pro-Russian Telegram channels famous the sluggish tempo of Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast, blaming it partially on ineffective aerial reconnaissance and the damaging results of dangerous morale throughout the Russian navy. Some Telegram channels reported receiving criticism for “misrepresenting” the efficiency of the Russian navy.
I have to frequent a distinct nook of Telegram and pro-Russia Twitter, as a result of what I’ve seen is completely completely different—the invention of a fantastical alternate actuality the place many of the destroyed autos are Ukrainian.
The idea is as such: many of the destroyed autos are BMP-1 infantry preventing autos, and supposedly Russia not fields these historical autos. On-the-ground images reveals Russian uniforms in those BMP-1s, however hey, these could possibly be faked, proper? That’s what the propagandists say. Open Supply Intelligence (OSINT) analyst Henry Schlottman, the authority on the composition of Russian military items, actually claims Russia fields them.
Oryx has tracked 43 BMP-1s misplaced by Russia, like this, this, this, and this, all with distinguished Russian invasion markings. Oh, and right here’s one nonetheless in Russia’s fingers, no less than a number of weeks in the past:
Moreover, Russia has been compelled to dig into its operational reserves to backfill fight losses whereas reconstituting shredded items. There aren’t a variety of fashionable infantry autos in these reserves. That is the crap they’re pulling out.
In fact, there’s much more than simply BMP-1s on the Bilohorivka catastrophe website! There are 14 T-72s, that are normal Russian situation (although Ukraine has captured a bunch), in addition to BMP-2s, and engineering and assist gear that solely Russia fields. So how do they clarify that?
Effectively, they are saying there was an enormous battle on the spot. Positive, Russia not holds the bridgeheads however their losses have been only a fraction of the general complete destroyed autos. You see, Russia destroyed all these Ukrainians in BMP-1s earlier than tactically retreating again throughout the bridge, which then Ukraine destroyed after the very fact … er … 3 times.
Then Russia launched video saying “nuh uh, we destroyed Ukrainian bridge!”
Besides … all I see is Russian capturing at a river, then dropping artillery on a river, with no autos anyplace round. Who is aware of, possibly they did compromise a working bridgehead. However it could nonetheless imply the tally is as follows:
Destroyed Russian pontoon bridge: 82+ autos
Destroyed Ukrainian pontoon bridge: 0 autos
However actually, that type of propaganda isn’t designed to persuade individuals, it’s designed to offer their partisans crap to spew. Nothing else. There’s a time period for that type of fantasy-making on this battle, and it’ll jump over to our personal political discourse earlier than lengthy: copium. Individuals will invent what they want to deal with the information they don’t wish to see.
