In 2019, a confidential supply – an influential Taliban commander from the Peshawar Shura with ties to Al Qaeda – was discreetly delivered to Kabul for periodic debriefing periods. Throughout one in all these periods, an analyst requested him why Al Qaeda had managed to outlive for therefore lengthy. The senior Taliban commander responded, “Jihad(ism) is just not like communism that collapsed underneath strain.” He then recited two verses from the Qur’an, Surah al-A’la (87:16-17): “However you favor the worldly life, whereas the Hereafter is healthier and extra enduring.” He elaborated that Al Qaeda doesn’t make any promise to materially change peoples’ lives however as an alternative prioritizes the Hereafter over the worldly life. The group fighters aren’t motivated by materials achieve — they combat for Akhirah (the Hereafter). In keeping with him, Al Qaeda indoctrinates its members with the assumption that this worldly life, with all its hardships, is a short lived check, and that endurance is important for attaining victory and success in each this life and the everlasting one.
Whereas such reasoning might not resonate with many all over the world—who would possibly discover it troublesome to dedicate their lives to a path of violence and destruction—this rhetoric has been one in all Al Qaeda’s handiest instruments. It helped the group not solely survive the post-9/11 World Conflict on Terror but in addition increase its networks, territorial presence, and assist base. Al Qaeda’s ideological narrative even enabled the group to pioneer some improvements in violence, similar to establishing suicide items with superior data of improvised explosive units (IEDs), which had been used to focus on the group’s enemies – together with civilians – in dozens of nations. The group prolonged this ideology to its many associates and associates, in addition to to hundreds of impressed people globally, encouraging them to undertake the identical rhetorical framework in pursuit of Akhirah (the Hereafter). The decision for a greater afterlife has deeply resonated with youth in varied societies, significantly the place people are trying to find that means of their existence or grappling with hardships similar to poverty, hopelessness, and different types of deprivation fueled by battle and atrocities all over the world. Such attraction of the afterlife offered Al Qaeda with the chance to increase by exploiting these grievances.
As well as, Al Qaeda’s management has employed a deliberate technique to keep up ideological coherence throughout its world community. This coherence has considerably empowered the group to proceed its mission and propagate its imaginative and prescient of “limitless and steady jihad.” The idea of perpetual jihad eliminated any perceived want for a concrete timetable for victory, fostering a way of strategic endurance amongst its fighters – a mindset that was then instilled throughout its varied branches.
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Localization: Technique of Assimilation
In September 2019,throughout a joint Afghan-U.S. operation, Asim Omar – the Emir of Al Qaeda within the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) – and Abu Raihan, his courier to Ayman al-Zawahiri – the second Emir of Al Qaeda after Osama bin Laden – had been killed, and a few dozen others had been arrested. Amongst these detained was an AQIS propaganda staff, skilled by Al Qaeda in Karachi, Pakistan. This staff – comprising each women and men – was tasked with conducting social media-based propaganda campaigns designed to instill and maintain a way of strategic endurance amongst Taliban fighters. Their mission was to mitigate the psychological affect of the continuing Doha negotiations with the U.S. The identical staff was additionally liable for transferring their technical experience to Taliban components in Helmand and neighboring provinces.Undoubtedly, this was not the one Al Qaeda staff supporting the Taliban in such efforts.
In April 2020, the Nationwide Directorate of Safety (NDS) -Afghanistan’s nationwide intelligence company underneath the Republic – uncovered 5 further groups skilled and supported by Al Qaeda working in varied provinces, together with Paktika, Ghazni, Kunduz, Faryab, and Kunar. This collaboration intensified after the Taliban’s takeover ofAfghanistanin August 2021. Quite a few Al Qaeda technical groups, skilled within the Center East, arrived in a number of Afghan provinces to run social media campaigns on behalf of the Taliban and to offer coaching to chose Taliban members who had handed a troublesome safety clearance course of. Some confidential experiences fromAfghanistaneven point out that Al Qaeda groups reap the benefits of computerized automated applications often called bots as a part of their operations. Whereas using such bots is proscribed inAfghanistan, the group employs the identical applications in different elements of the world as nicely.
Notably, the Taliban management formally denied Asim Omar’s demise within the Helmand operation – just like their response following the U.S. strike onAyman al-Zawahiri in Kabul in July 2022. Al Qaeda along with the Taliban even took steps to sow doubt amongst regional intelligence providers. In a single occasion, a Taliban commander in Helmand despatched a message by way of a courier to one in all Omar’s relations in India, claiming that he was nonetheless alive. In consequence, the household avoided holding a funeral ceremony. This deception prompted some intelligence businesses to query whether or not to just accept experiences of Omar’s demise and take away him from their watchlists. Nonetheless, the NDS formally introduced Omar’s demise in October 2019, almost two weeks after the operation. This affirmation adopted official procedures, together with forensic verification. This case illustrates how Al Qaeda and its associates manipulate perceptions to drive intelligence businesses to waste sources confirming what’s already confirmed. Given the restricted nature of intelligence sources, such distractions can lead to alternative prices – forcing businesses to divert consideration from different higher-priority threats.
Decentralization: A “Community of Networks”
One other calculated step, applied with the assist of Ayman al-Zawahiri was the transformation of the group from a centralized hierarchical construction right into a decentralized “community of networks.” This strategic shift allowed the group to diversify its recruitment base.As soon as dominated by a small circle of Arabs from the Center East, Al Qaeda advanced right into a broader community comprising hundreds of people both immediately recruited or impressed by its ideology and narratives.Abu Musab al-Suri, one in all Al Qaeda’s key ideologues, envisioned this decentralized mannequin and is sometimes called the architect of the brand new Al Qaeda. This transfer considerably amplified the group’s world messaging and affect. Concurrently, it elevated the variety of people showing on intelligence watchlists worldwide. Extra folks to watch meant better demand on intelligence sources, additional complicating the already advanced panorama of the World Conflict on Terror. The method considerably contributed to growing and sustaining resilience amongAl Qaeda members and fighters. Clearly, the group’s progress regardless of intensified world counterterrorism efforts underscores the effectiveness of this technique in enhancing Al Qaeda’s transformation.
The decentralization method laid the muse for an additional strategic shift inside Al Qaeda. Ayman al-Zawahiri led a course of to facilitate the embedding of Al Qaeda management and navy cadres inside native associates and associates. This helped Al Qaeda to put low and submerge inside different native terrorist teams. As an illustration, in October 2020, Husam Abd-al-Ra’uf, additionally identified asAbu Muhsin al-Masri, one in all Al Qaeda’s high leaders, was killed in Ghazni province ofAfghanistanduring an operation performed by the NDS. Through the operation, two of his Afghan aides had been additionally arrested. The NDS later realized that each aides had twin allegiance to each Al Qaeda and the Taliban. Current experiences fromAfghanistansuggest that twin allegiance has elevated among the many Taliban and develop into a standard phenomenon inside terrorist teams in South and Central Asia. One of many aides was liable for offering safety and safety to al-Masri with the assist of the Taliban. Based mostly on supplies confiscated in the course of the operation, al-Masri was liable for offering monetary assist and technical experience to a number of Taliban and HQN teams in Ghazni and surrounding provinces. Certainly one of his obligations was to deliver cohesion between the Quetta Shura and HQN actions. The second aide, often called Zahid, was launched after a number of months, as his title was on the Taliban record of 5,000 to be freed primarily based on the US-Taliban so-called Doha peace deal.
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Sustaining Authority: A Dangerous however Efficient Method
In 2018, the Nationwide Directorate of Safety (NDS) arrestedAbdullah Mansouraka Ansari aka Masoum – the second-in-command of the Turkistan Islamic Social gathering (TIP) – throughout an intelligence operation designed to seize him as he traveled from Pakistan toAfghanistan. Following his arrest,Abu Zar al-Burmi, who was liable for managing Al Qaeda’s relationships with varied teams such because the Islamic Motion of Uzbekistan (IMU), the TIP, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and different regional terrorist organizations, contacted the NDS by means of an middleman. He appeared to supply his collaboration, however his precise goal was to safe Ansari’s launch. To persuade the NDS of his id and sincerity, Abu Zar traveled from Karachi, Pakistan, toAfghanistanand participated in a number of debriefing periods. As soon as the NDS uncovered his true motives, the important thing query arose: why would he take such a big danger for Ansari? The reply was twofold. First, he had been instructed by Al Qaeda’s management to take action – using deception to facilitate the discharge of his “Mujahid brother.” Second, Al Qaeda wanted to claim its authority and management over affiliated networks. Al Qaeda regards teams such because the Taliban, the Haqqani Community, the Turkistan Islamic Social gathering, and different terrorist organizations in Central and South Asia as extensions of its navy arm. Subsequently, it views the safety and empowerment of those teams – even at nice private and operational danger – as important to preserving the respect and authority it instructions inside its huge world community.
Conclusion
Al Qaeda’s survival is just not unintended – it’s the results of a deliberate fusion of ideology, technique, and deception. By rejecting typical milestones and embedding itself inside broader militant ecosystems, the group has tailored to world strain whereas remaining dedicated to its core imaginative and prescient: “limitless jihad” in pursuit of the Hereafter. So long as this ideology endures – fuelled by perception, sustained by means of alliances, and cloaked in misdirection – Al Qaeda will stay a persistent and underestimated menace, not simply to nationwide safety, however to the understanding of what actually sustains trendy terrorism.
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