Ukraine wins some, loses some, as France, Greece and Turkey plan Mariupol rescue

Wow, what a day! Let’s deal with this as a recap. 

Because of Russia, cats and canine are working along with the French, to do one thing that ought to’ve been finished weeks in the past.

The important thing right here is that French President Emmanuel Macron hasn’t advised Vladimir Putin but. This isn’t some bullshit drawn-out negotiation. France, Greece and Turkey are working collectively to make it occur, and France will inform Putin, not ask for permission. Putin would possibly threaten in return, which might result in a standoff. Russia might blockade entrance to the Azov Sea. The entire space is closely mined, so aid ships can be in nice hazard. Any evacuation would result in shelling of the refugees making a run for the ready ships. And Russians would possibly attempt to block any escape, for worry of Azov members and different Ukrainian forces mixing in and getting out. So that is certainly not a straightforward operation. However so glad it’s being labored on. 

Kyiv/northern entrance: No territory modified palms. Artillery battles taking part in out in NW Kyiv, whereas one other Russian try to interrupt by Brovary on the northeastern aspect was repulsed by Ukraine. Makariv was declared liberated a few days in the past, however Ukraine reviews heavy preventing continues round that city. 

Kharkiv/Sumy/Northeast entrance: Ukrainian forces pushed Russians out of two villages east of Kharkiv, providing some aid to the besieged metropolis. In Sumy Oblast, Russian forces are as soon as once more on the offensive, although no territory modified palms. 

Donbas entrance: Russian troops made gains of their efforts to completely encircle Izyum, gaining about 10 kms of floor to its southeast. This city is important for each resupplying Ukrainian forces within the area, and since the Donets river that runs by the center of the town creates a pure barrier to the Russian advance. Russia is most lively on this entrance, and it’s clear they’re going to redouble their efforts right here. Mariupol hangs on. Taking the town is costing Russia dearly, by the appears to be like of all of the destroyed equipment and dead bodies (drone footage, however forewarned) on Twitter and Telegram.

Mykolaiv/Kherson/Crimea/South entrance: Ukraine was confirmed to have liberated Snihurivka and Novovorontsovka within the area. 

With Snihurivka taken (the underside arrow), that’s lots of Russian forces reduce off to its northeast, although nobody (apart from the Ukrainian and Russian armies) actually is aware of what’s left up there. I’m torn between rooting for Russia to have pulled again, permitting Ukraine to roll up that territory with minimal loss, and having Russian forces trapped up there, simpler pickings for the defenders. Regardless, that bizarre, under-resourced, and at all times doomed effort reaching out to Kryvyi Rih is formally over, simply after I had lastly realized to spell that metropolis’s identify with out trying it up. 

To emphasize once more (as I did in a earlier replace), the New York Occasions report that Ukraine had a presence in Kherson was utter bullshit, a mangling of a Pentagon report that Ukraine was now difficult Kherson Oblast, the executive area. And it’s doing so, so far as we will inform, by shelling Kherson’s airport, presently occupied by Russia. The standard media has finished a terrific job protecting the refugee and humanitarian disaster, however an abysmal job protecting the army aspect. Don’t assume they know what they’re speaking about simply because they’re The New York Occasions or different such mainstream information outlet. 

Should you haven’t caught Mark Sumner and me discussing the warfare this week, test it out:

In the meantime, I’ve been saying that Russia’s weak point would embolden violence within the central Asian nations it has meddled in. For instance, Armenia holds disputed territory in Azerbaijan, held with the assistance of Russian “peacekeepers.” Properly, a lot for that peace. 

Russia’s fall from grace will embolden not simply an effort to retake many of those disputed territories, however might additionally spark new violence in a few of Russia’s hinterland areas. Certainly, it’d even be in China’s curiosity to quietly prod a few of these alongside. Anticipate lots of violence within the years forward now that the parable of the Russian Bear has been shattered. 

Different Ukraine updates at the moment: