Commerce tariffs are again — reshaping markets and elevating important questions for buyers. In early 2025, the USA enacted broad-based tariffs on practically all buying and selling companions, reversing a long time of liberalization. The end result: renewed volatility, geopolitical stress, and a transparent crucial for portfolio resilience. Whereas at this time’s headlines really feel new, the dynamics aren’t.
Over the previous 150 years, the USA has seen a number of high-tariff regimes — from the publish–Civil Battle growth to the Smoot-Hawley fallout. The worldwide financial system has modified, however investor conduct and danger pricing stay ruled by acquainted patterns.
On this weblog, we study these classes by way of a data-driven lens, leveraging our proprietary database of 150 years of asset and financial knowledge—probably the most complete long-term dataset on tariffs, financial development, and funding returns obtainable so far ([3], [4], [5]). Our goal is to not counsel that historical past will repeat itself, however to uncover patterns that rhyme — offering context for buyers in search of to navigate at this time’s uncertainty. The proof exhibits that whereas tariffs can introduce stress into markets, systematic fairness elements, notably low-volatility, have traditionally supplied stability and added worth during times of commerce disruption. For buyers going through a resurgence in protectionist coverage, these classes are each well timed and actionable.
The Historical past of Tariffs
Displays 1 and a couple of hint the USA by way of a number of tariff regimes since 1875. From protectionism to liberalization and again once more, tariff coverage has mirrored broader political and financial forces. This long-run view gives essential context for at this time’s shifts.
Exhibit 1: US Efficient Tariff Fee Since 1875
Yale BudgetLab and Northern Belief Asset Administration – Quantitative Methods. The efficient US tariff fee is measured as customs responsibility income as a p.c of products imports. The pattern interval is 1875-2024.
Exhibit 2: Historic Tariff Traits
Yale BudgetLab and Northern Belief Asset Administration – Quantitative Methods.
1875-1913: Protectionist Peak
Within the Civil Battle the USA applied the Morrill Tariff in 1861, elevating common tariff charges on dutiable commodities to roughly 47% to generate income for the Civil Battle. From the post-Civil Battle period (which was 1861–1865) to World Battle I, tariffs remained excessive to guard flourishing industries. Tariffs on dutiable imports averaged between 30% and 50%, reflecting the Republican Celebration’s dedication to industrial improvement by way of commerce boundaries, amounting to efficient tariffs of round 30%. Notable laws contains the Morrill Tariff (1861), the McKinley Tariff (1890), and the Dingley Tariff (1897), the latter of which marked the peak of protectionism on this period.
1913–Nineteen Twenties: First Liberalization
The Underwood Tariff Act of 1913, enacted beneath President Woodrow Wilson, marked a turning level by decreasing the fundamental tariff charges. As well as, many uncooked supplies and groceries have been added to the freed from tariff record. This shift was pushed by Democratic efforts to advertise freer commerce and encourage American producers to provide extra environment friendly and grow to be extra aggressive with their costs, decreasing the typical price for customers.
Thirties: Smoot-Hawley Period
The 1929 inventory market crash triggered a worldwide downturn, prompting nations to guard home industries. In 1930, the USA handed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, elevating duties on over 20,000 imports—pushing common tariff charges to 45%. As a substitute of stabilizing the financial system, the coverage sparked international retaliation, with main buying and selling companions like Canada, the UK, and Germany imposing countermeasures. The end result: a commerce battle and a 60% drop in world commerce by 1933.
Put up-WWII to Seventies: Commerce Liberalization Period
After World Battle II, U.S. coverage pivoted towards multilateral liberalization by way of the Basic Settlement on Tariffs and Commerce (GATT). By negotiation rounds, leading to over 100 agreements, together with Geneva, Dillon, Kennedy, and Tokyo, common tariffs on industrial items fell dramatically. By the Seventies, US tariffs have been round 10% or decrease, reflecting a worldwide pattern towards freer commerce.
1990S–2000s: NAFTA and WTO Integration
With the signing of NAFTA (1992) coming into drive (1994) and the U.S. becoming a member of the WTO (1995), tariff boundaries declined even additional. By the 2010s, common tariffs on all US imports had dropped to roughly 1.5–2.5%, reflecting the height of US commerce openness.
2018–2020s: Strategic Protectionism
Starting in 2018, the Trump administration imposed a ten% blanket tariff on imports, together with further levies focusing on nations with massive commerce surpluses with the USA, notably China. These measures marked a shift towards selective protectionism and initiated retaliatory tariffs by main buying and selling companions.
2025: Escalation of Broad Tariff Coverage
In 2025, the USA enacted its most important commerce shift in a century: a ten% blanket tariff on all imports, plus an added levy based mostly on every nation’s bilateral items deficit. Although a 90-day grace interval softened the rollout, ongoing exemptions and reversals have created persistent coverage uncertainty. The influence has been most acute for China, the first goal, with retaliatory tariffs from Beijing following rapidly. The unstable and politically charged surroundings has difficult forecasting and elevated warning amongst international buyers.
The risk now hanging over the worldwide financial system is that President Trump is orchestrating a return to the Thirties, when the notorious Smoot-Hawley tariffs set off a series response of worldwide retaliation, typically blamed for deepening the Despair. This transfer contrasts sharply with the multilateral liberalization pattern of the earlier a long time. These regimes of US commerce tariffs additionally influence common international tariffs internationally, as different nations both had excessive tariffs (like European nations within the 19th century) or retaliated (for instance in the course of the Smoot-Hawley period). The determine beneath, taken from Bas, 2012 reveals the typical stage of world tariffs [2].
Exhibit 3: Unweighted World Common Personal Tariff, 35 Nations, %
Bas, M. (2012). Enter-trade liberalization and agency export choices: Proof from Argentina. Journal of Improvement Economics, 97(2), 81-493.
Tariffs are broadly thought to be impediments to commerce openness. By growing the price of cross-border transactions, excessive tariffs have a tendency to limit the stream of products and companies, thereby decreasing a rustic’s trade-to-GDP ratio—a regular measure of openness [2]. Exhibit 3 illustrates the historic evolution of US commerce openness, outlined because the sum of imports and exports as a proportion of GDP, with key tariff regimes highlighted.
Exhibit 4: Historic Commerce Openness
GlobalMacroDatabase, Yale BudgetLab, Northern Belief Asset Administration – Quantitative Methods. The determine exhibits the historic timeseries conduct of the 10-year centered shifting common of U.S. Commerce Openness (based mostly on the sum of US Imports and Exports as a proportion of GDP). The bars highlighted durations of excessive tariffs. Tariff charges are calculated as the whole income from import duties divided by the worth of whole imports in the identical yr. The pattern interval is 1875-2024.
The information exhibits clear declines in openness during times of elevated protectionism, notably the late nineteenth century and the Smoot-Hawley period of the Thirties. Conversely, commerce openness expanded considerably in the course of the publish–World Battle II liberalization section and thru the multilateral agreements of the Nineties and 2000s. This pattern started to reverse within the late 2010s, as focused tariffs—notably these imposed on China throughout President Trump’s first time period—curtailed international commerce flows. The latest escalation in 2025 threatens to speed up this reversal, underscoring the persistent stress between protectionist insurance policies and international financial integration.
What Does the Information Inform Us About Tariffs and Financial Development?
A primary order query for buyers is what’s the influence of tariffs on financial development? Whereas intuitive arguments typically hyperlink protectionism with weaker financial outcomes, the historic knowledge current a extra nuanced image. Tutorial analysis over the previous a long time has yielded combined outcomes, with some durations exhibiting constructive correlations between excessive tariffs and powerful development— particularly earlier than World Battle II — whereas post-war knowledge level to slower development in high-tariff regimes.
This phenomenon has been termed the “tariff–development paradox,” first recognized by Bairoch (1972), who famous that economies within the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries typically grew quickly regardless of, and even alongside, elevated tariff ranges[1]. On the identical time, economical channels counsel tariffs traditionally raised enter prices and have achieved little to spice up productiveness, thereby doubtlessly hindering financial development originating from different historic sources like migration, restoration of the good melancholy, or productiveness will increase coming from main improvements.
To offer additional colour on the connection between efficient tariffs and financial development we plot in Exhibit 5 the annual US actual GDP development charges since 1875, with the earlier excessive tariff durations highlighted in gray.
Exhibit 5: US Tariffs Vs. Financial Development
GlobalMacroDatabase, Yale BudgetLab and Northern Belief Asset Administration – Quantitative Methods. The efficient US tariff fee is measured as customs responsibility income as a proportion of products imports. The bars highlighted durations of excessive tariffs. US financial development is measured by the ten years (centered) common development fee in actual GDP.
We are able to see that US financial development was marginally greater throughout excessive tariff regimes. Throughout the Protectionist Peak’ interval, the financial system skilled a excessive however progressively declining development fee of three.9% on common, adopted by a big drop in the course of the Nice Despair. Subsequently, development recovered and averaged above 5% in the course of the ‘Smoot-Hawley’ period.
After that, tariffs declined, however financial development fell to ranges beneath these seen in the course of the protectionist peak — dropping from 3.2% within the publish–World Battle II interval to 2.2% because the begin of the twenty first century. Furthermore, proof suggests a prisoner’s dilemma for particular person nations. If a single nation imposes tariffs in a focused and well-designed method, it could reap some advantages. Nevertheless, if others retaliate, the result sometimes worsens for all.
Leaders contemplating a shift towards commerce openness face a strategic recreation, not an remoted resolution. Defection by main economies — elevating tariffs unilaterally — typically leads others to observe go well with. Ultimately, solely cooperation serves the very best pursuits of the “prisoners.” Therefore, the worldwide context and worldwide responses matter considerably, with a traditional ‘prisoner’s end result’ seemingly if everybody begins retaliating. Good luck, politics.
Does this imply we will count on tariffs to keep away from harming — and even benefitting — financial development going ahead? We take a purely data-driven historic perspective, however we emphasize that at this time’s economies differ in essential methods from these of the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Most notably, the worldwide financial system is now way more interconnected, with intricate worldwide provide chains, more and more complicated and tech-driven merchandise, and a US financial system that depends extra closely on the export of companies than items.
If the aim of protectionism is to enhance commerce balances, historical past gives some precedent, however on the identical time, international commerce has grow to be a a lot bigger share of world GDP. This implies that the chance price of retreating behind protectionist partitions could also be significantly better at this time than it was up to now.
Tariffs and Funding Returns
Subsequent, we flip to the influence of tariffs on funding returns. Our distinctive and in depth historic dataset allows us to look at this query by way of a purely data-driven lens, specializing in actual returns throughout each asset lessons and fairness elements. We analyze key conventional asset lessons obtainable over an extended pattern — equities, bonds, and gold — in addition to traditional fairness model elements together with dimension, worth, momentum, low danger, and high quality. These elements symbolize core constructing blocks in buyers’ alternative units. We conduct three primary analyses: (i) a pattern break up based mostly on earlier tariff episodes recognized in Exhibit 2; (ii) a pattern break up based mostly on the extent of US efficient tariffs; and (iii) a pattern break up based mostly on commerce openness. Exhibit 6 exhibits the outcomes when zooming into the key tariff regimes recognized above.
Exhibit 6: Actual Funding Returns Throughout Tariff Regimes
Baltussen et al. (2023), Yale BudgetLab and Northern Belief Asset Administration – Quantitative Methods. Information from January 1875 till December 2024, * aside from High quality which begins in 1940, High quality is disregarded for durations with restricted observations. Returns are inflation-adjusted, in annual phrases, in USD and averaged throughout tariff regimes.
The outcomes present that equities carried out properly throughout earlier high-tariff durations, with annual actual returns averaging 5.3% in the course of the Protectionist Peak and 5.1% in the course of the Smoot-Hawley period –each broadly according to the long-term common over the previous 150 years. Bond returns have been extra modest, at 2.7% and 1.1% respectively, whereas gold posted adverse returns in the course of the 1875–1913 interval. Fairness issue portfolios constantly outperformed the broad market, including roughly 2.0% in each high-tariff regimes.
Notably, low-volatility stood out in the course of the 1875–1913 interval, whereas the dimensions issue delivered notably sturdy outcomes in the course of the 1930–1945 Smoot-Hawley period.
Subsequent, we take into account a pattern break up based mostly explicitly on the extent of US efficient tariffs, utilizing a cutoff of 15%, as proven in Exhibit 7. The outcomes align carefully with the interval classifications offered in Exhibit 6. Actual fairness returns are, on common, constructive and broadly according to long-term averages. Actual bond returns are additionally constructive throughout high-tariff episodes however are typically nearer to zero when tariffs are comparatively low.
In distinction, gold returns are sometimes flat throughout high-tariff durations however extra constructive when tariffs are decrease. Fairness elements, nonetheless, present a constant value-add over the market portfolio, delivering sturdy returns in each excessive and low tariff environments. Low-volatility methods carried out properly throughout high-tariff episodes, whereas dimension, worth, and different elements additionally held up robustly.
Exhibit 7: Funding Returns Throughout Tariff Regimes
Baltussen et al. (2023), Yale BudgetLab and Northern Belief Asset Administration – Quantitative Methods. The efficient US tariff fee is measured as customs responsibility income as a p.c of products imports. Efficient US tariff charges are year-end values, replicated throughout July-to-June, centered round December. Elements are simulated. Information from January 1875 till December 2024, aside from High quality which begins in 1940, given earlier knowledge will not be obtainable for this issue. The Multi-Issue sequence contains all elements obtainable at every time limit. The shaded half for high quality represents the market return over the identical interval. Elements are constructed by overlaying long-short portfolios available on the market portfolio. Returns are in annual phrases, in USD. Numbers in parentheses point out the typical variety of years per state of affairs.
These outcomes replicate the assorted channels by way of which tariffs can affect issue efficiency. Elevated tariffs typically improve enter prices, compress revenue margins, and heighten macroeconomic uncertainty, circumstances beneath which buyers are inclined to favor extra resilient, lower-risk firms. This helps low-volatility and high quality issue outperformance. On the identical time, tariffs can weigh extra closely on cyclical and globally built-in corporations, which are sometimes concentrated in worth and small-cap segments. Nevertheless, when these elements are priced at deep reductions, they will nonetheless ship sturdy returns, notably if coverage shocks reverse or are already priced in, explaining their resilience even in high-tariff regimes.
We subsequent take a look at how funding returns range with commerce openness, measured as exports plus imports relative to GDP. This third pattern break up is proven in Exhibit 8.
Exhibit 8: Funding Returns Throughout Altering US Commerce Openness
Baltussen et al. (2023), Yale BudgetLab and Northern Belief Asset Administration – Quantitative Methods. US Commerce Openness ranges are year-end values, replicated throughout July-to-June, centered round December. Elements are simulated. Information from January 1875 till December 2024, aside from High quality which begins in 1940, given earlier knowledge will not be obtainable for this issue. The Multi-Issue sequence contains all elements obtainable at every time limit. The shaded half for high quality represents the market return over the identical interval. Elements are constructed by overlaying long-short portfolios available on the market portfolio. Returns are in annual phrases, in USD. Numbers in parentheses point out the typical variety of years per state of affairs.
In keeping with the earlier two analyses, fairness returns stay comparatively secure throughout totally different commerce openness regimes. Bond returns have a tendency to carry up properly when commerce openness declines, whereas gold returns are, on common, adverse in those self same durations. In contrast, fairness elements constantly add worth over the market portfolio in each excessive and low openness situations, with low-volatility methods specifically delivering sturdy efficiency.
Whereas financial outcomes have various, fairness markets — and particularly fairness elements — have proven resilience throughout historic tariff regimes. Low-volatility, dimension, and worth methods have constantly added worth, even during times of heightened protectionism. As commerce tensions rise once more, these long-term patterns provide helpful steerage for constructing sturdy, risk-aware portfolios.
REFERENCES
[1] Bairoch, P. (1972). Free commerce and European financial improvement within the nineteenth century. European Financial Assessment, 3(3), 211-245.
[2] Bas, M. (2012). Enter-trade liberalization and agency export choices: Proof from Argentina. Journal of Improvement Economics, 97(2), 81-493.
[3] Baltussen, G., Swinkels, L., van Vliet, B., & van Vliet, P. (2023). Investing in Deflation, Inflation, and Stagflation Regimes. Monetary Analysts Journal, 1-28.
[4] Baltussen, G., van Vliet, B., & Van Vliet, P. (2023). The cross-section of inventory returns earlier than CRSP, Working Paper.
[5] Baltussen, G., van Vliet, B., & Vidojevic, M. (2024). Navigating inflation – an evaluation of fairness issue efficiency over 150 years. Northern Belief Company.
