Survey Says is a weekly column rounding up three of crucial polling traits or information factors you could learn about. You’ll additionally discover data-based updates on previous Each day Kos reporting, plus a vibe test on a pattern that’s driving politics.
Whose financial system is it anyway?
With President Donald Trump’s second time period previous the 100-day mark, he’s scrambling to dodge blame for a inventory market that’s fallen since he took workplace. On April 30, he declared in a social media submit, “That is Biden’s Inventory Market, not Trump’s.”
He seems to be one of many few who believes that.
Extra People blame Trump (46%) than former President Biden (27%) for the present state of the financial system, in accordance with Gallup. One other 21% say accountability is shared. That could be flattering for Trump if folks appreciated the place issues stand—however they don’t.
A CBS Information/YouGov ballot, which was performed shortly earlier than Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs took impact, discovered that 64% of People assume he’s not doing sufficient to decrease costs. And the share who consider his insurance policies will make them worse off financially jumped from 28% in January to 42% by late March. It’s secure to imagine sentiment has solely worsened since.
The newest Civiqs information backs that up: As of Friday, 32% of registered voters price the financial system as “very dangerous,” and one other 30% say it’s “pretty dangerous.” Simply 30% name it “pretty good,” and solely 4% say it’s “excellent.”
Republicans are particularly conflicted. Within the Gallup ballot, 55% of Republicans stated Biden was chargeable for the state of the financial system, whereas simply 21% blamed Trump. But many within the celebration additionally oppose his tariffs—the very insurance policies dragging down the markets and driving up costs.
Republicans have been the one partisan group extra more likely to fault Biden for the financial system. Most Democrats (75%) and a plurality of independents (43%) pointed to Trump.
Trump’s spin doesn’t maintain up. Final yr, we have been instructed the markets have been rising as a result of buyers anticipated his return. Now we’re imagined to consider they’re falling as a result of buyers all of the sudden remembered Biden?
Will voters finally blame Biden—or Democrats—for the state of the financial system? In all probability not. Belief in financial points is starting to tilt again towards Democrats. Trump may need to take word, however he’s by no means been one for accountability. The reality is straightforward: The ache People are feeling is the direct results of Trump’s insurance policies, particularly his tariffs. He desires credit score for the highs and not one of the blame for the lows. Voters might not let him off the hook.
The racial reckoning that wasn’t
In two weeks, on Might 25, it should have been 5 years since George Floyd was murdered by a white police officer in Minneapolis. The world watched in horror, and protests erupted. There have been pressing calls to remodel policing, with some even calling to defund it.
On the time, People have been paying consideration. In June 2020, greater than 80% have been carefully following the protests, on par with their deal with the COVID-19 pandemic, in accordance with the Pew Analysis Heart. Assist for Black Lives Matter peaked that summer time, with 67% of adults backing the motion.
However practically every little thing has modified.
Right now, simply 52% of People assist Black Lives Matter—a 15-percentage-point drop. Almost three-quarters of People (72%) now say that the renewed deal with racial inequality after Floyd’s demise didn’t result in significant enhancements within the lives of Black folks.
Much more troubling is that People have grown extra pessimistic about the way forward for racial equality. Amongst those that consider the nation hasn’t made sufficient progress, 49% now say it’s attainable Black folks won’t ever have equal rights with white folks—up from 39% in 2020.
Pew’s new report doesn’t dive into why sentiment has shifted so drastically, however the burden of change has at all times fallen on communities of colour and Democrats. In eight years of Civiqs polling, a majority of white registered voters has by no means supported Black Lives Matter. Assist peaked at 44% proper after Floyd’s homicide however fell rapidly after that. Now solely 34% of white voters assist the motion, whereas 52% oppose it.
It’s not simply white People or Republicans standing in the way in which. Firms that after sprinted to undertake variety, fairness, and inclusion initiatives at the moment are quietly ditching them, many doing so even earlier than Trump signed his government order dismantling DEI throughout the federal authorities. That claims all of it. For a lot of, the aim was by no means justice; it was about branding.
Is racial progress attainable with a president who stokes division at each flip? In all probability not. 5 years after Floyd’s homicide, these numbers present simply how far the nation nonetheless has to go.
America was nice—simply not now
Was America ever really nice? That’s up for debate, however there are just a few intervals when People assume issues have been a minimum of higher than they’re now.
A newly launched YouGov survey requested People to price the standard of life throughout varied factors in U.S. historical past. Unsurprisingly, respondents agree that life wasn’t precisely thriving throughout the Nice Melancholy (1929-1939) or the Civil Struggle (1861-65), a time outlined by nationwide and racial upheaval. Greater than 70% of People say life within the U.S. was “poor” or “horrible” throughout every of these intervals.
So when was life in America nice?
The period related to former President Ronald Reagan (1980-91) tops the checklist, with 57% calling it “wonderful” or “good.” Shut behind are the Clinton years (1993-2001) at 55%, the post-WWII child increase (1946-1964) at 51%, and the turbulent counterculture period of 1964-74, which 46% of People rating as “wonderful” or “good.”
And the current second? Simply 32% give it a constructive score, whereas 34% say it’s “poor” or “horrible” and one other 29% say it’s merely “honest.”
Why the gloom? Whereas broader Trump-fueled discord in American politics absolutely performs a task, the ballot was additionally fielded shortly after Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs first went into impact and tanked the inventory market. And the identical survey additionally finds that 21% of People say the present high quality of life feels most just like the Nice Melancholy, and 28% says it feels just like the Nice Recession. In different phrases, the survey possible caught People at a very damaging time.
So when Trump says he desires to make America nice “once more,” what period is he attempting to revive? Perhaps the Reagan years, however the truth that he leaves it imprecise suggests he’s interesting to People’ hazy nostalgia for glory days that by no means actually existed.
Any updates?
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Regardless of Trump’s repeated threats in opposition to Harvard College, the general public sees the varsity in a constructive gentle. A brand new Economist/YouGov ballot finds that 57% of People view Harvard favorably, in contrast with simply 24% who view it unfavorably. It’s a reminder that Trump’s pettiness can’t undo the status of the nation’s wealthiest and most storied college. As for Trump’s vow to strip Harvard of its tax-exempt standing? People are principally cut up—41% in favor, 36% opposed.
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Analysts warn that Trump’s promised tax on foreign-made movies may shrink Hollywood’s output and drive up ticket costs, so it’s no shock that 55% of People oppose a 100% tariff on films produced outdoors of the U.S., whereas simply 25% assist it, in accordance with a brand new YouGov ballot.
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Trump is attempting to dismantle AmeriCorps, a service program serving to communities nationwide. His administration has positioned roughly 85% of its workers on depart and canceled lots of of hundreds of thousands of {dollars} in grants. However voters aren’t on board. A brand new Information for Progress ballot finds that after studying a quick description of this system, 74% of possible voters assist this system, with simply 14% opposing it. That assist spans celebration strains too: 79% of Democrats, 73% of independents and third-party voters, and even 70% of Republicans assist it.
Vibe test
Throughout NBC’s “Meet the Press” this previous Sunday, Trump downplayed his potential pursuit of an unconstitutional third time period—one thing nobody desires, not even Republicans. As an alternative, he floated two attainable successors: Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State/appearing nationwide safety adviser/appearing U.S. archivist Marco Rubio.
“You take a look at Marco, you take a look at JD Vance, who’s improbable,” Trump stated. “You take a look at—I may title 10, 15, 20 folks proper now simply sitting right here. No, I believe we have now an amazing celebration. And you already know what I can’t title? I can’t title one Democrat.”
However how do Vance’s numbers stack up subsequent to Trump’s? In response to Civiqs, Vance has a 41% favorable score and 55% unfavorable, which is worse than Trump’s favorability (43% favorable, 54% unfavorable).
Partisan strains are clear: Republican voters have warmed to Vance, along with his favorables rising from round 79% in July 2024 to 88% now. Democrats, unsurprisingly, detest him much more than earlier than—up from round 92% unfavorable final July to 95% right now.
Vance’s greater downside, although, mirrors Trump’s: independents. Civiqs finds that 56% of impartial voters view the vice chairman unfavorably, in contrast with simply 38% who view him favorably. And that’s a slide from the place he began. On Jan. 20—the day of Trump’s inauguration—independents have been practically cut up on Vance: 45% favorable, 46% unfavorable.
No matter goodwill he had seems lengthy gone.
It’s not exhausting to see why. He’s hitched himself to an administration that’s inflicting financial chaos, gutting immigration protections, and lurching additional into authoritarianism. If voters see him as Trump with a youthful face, who can blame them?
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